Shimelis Gebriye Setegn

Hydrological Modelling in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia Using SWAT Model

The SWAT2005 model was applied to the Lake Tana Basin for modeling of the hydrological water balance. The main objective of this study was to test the performance and feasibility of the SWAT model for prediction of stream- flow in the Lake Tana Basin. The model was calibrated and validated on four tributaries of Lake Tana; Gumera, GilgelA- bay, Megech and Ribb rivers using SUFI-2, GLUE and ParaSol algorithms. The sensitivity analysis of the model to sub- basin delineation and HRU definition thresholds showed that the flow is more sensitive to the HRU definition thresholds than subbasin discretization effect. SUFI-2 and GLUE gave good result. All sources of uncertainties were captured by bracketing more than 60% of the observed river discharge. Baseflow (40% - 60%) is an important component of the total discharge within the study area that contributes more than the surface runoff. The calibrated model can be used for further analysis of the effect of climate and land use change as well as other different management scenarios on streamflow and soil erosion.

Impact of climate change on the hydroclimatology of Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia

[1] Climate change has the potential to reduce water resource availability in the Nile Basin countries in the forthcoming decades. We investigated the sensitivity of water resources to climate change in the Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia, using outputs from global climate models (GCMs). First, we compiled projected changes in monthly precipitation and temperature in the basin from 15 GCMs. Although the GCMs uniformly suggest increases in temperature, the rainfall projections are not consistent. Second, we investigated how changes in daily temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in streamflow and other hydrological components. For this, we generated daily climate projections by modifying the historical data sets to represent the changes in the GCM climatologies and calculated hydrological changes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model itself was calibrated and validated using the flows from four tributaries of Lake Tana. For the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 scenario, four of the nine GCMs investigated showed statistically significant declines in annual streamflow for the 2080–2100 period. We interpret our results to mean that anthropogenic climate changes may indeed alter the water balance in the Lake Tana Basin during the next century but that the direction of change cannot be determined with confidence using the current generation of GCMs.

Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of Upper Tiber River Basin Using Bias Corrected Regional Climate Model

The use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs has been getting due attention in most European River basins because of the availability of large number of the models and modelling institutes in the continent; and the relative robustness the models to represent local climate. This paper presents the hydrological responses to climate change in the Upper Tiber River basin (Central Italy) using bias corrected daily regional climate model outputs. The hydrological analysis include both control (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate scenarios. Three RCMs (RegCM, RCAO, and PROMES) that were forced by the same lateral boundary condition under A2 and B2 emission scenarios were used in this study. The projected climate variables from bias corrected models have shown that the precipitation and temperature tends to decrease and increase in summer season, respectively. The impact of climate change on the hydrology of the river basin was predicted using physically based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model was first calibrated and validated using observed datasets at the sub-basin outlet. A total of six simulations were performed under each scenario and RCM combinations. The simulated result indicated that there is a significant annual and seasonal change in the hydrological water balance components. The annual water balance of the study area showed a decrease in surface runoff, aquifer recharge and total basin water yield under A2 scenario for RegCM and RCAO RCMs and an increase in PROMES RCM under B2 scenario. The overall hydrological behaviour of the basin indicated that there will be a reduction of water yield in the basin due to projected changes in temperature and precipitation. The changes in all other hydrological components are in agreement with the change in projected precipitation and temperature.

Hydrological Response to Climate Change for Gilgel Abay River, in the Lake Tana Basin - Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Climate change is likely to have severe effects on water availability in Ethiopia. The aim of the present study was to assess the impact of climate change on the Gilgel Abay River, Upper Blue Nile Basin. The Statistical Downscaling Tool (SDSM) was used to downscale the HadCM3 (Hadley centre Climate Model 3) Global Circulation Model (GCM) scenario data into finer scale resolution. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was set up, calibrated, and validated. SDSM downscaled climate outputs were used as an input to the SWAT model. The climate projection analysis was done by dividing the period 2010-2100 into three time windows with each 30 years of data. The period 1990-2001 was taken as the baseline period against which comparison was made. Results showed that annual mean precipitation may decrease in the first 30-year period but increase in the following two 30-year periods. The decrease in mean monthly precipitation may be as much as about -30% during 2010-2040 but the increase may be more than +30% in 2070-2100. The impact of climate change may cause a decrease in mean monthly flow volume between -40% to -50% during 2010-2040 but may increase by more than the double during 2070-2100. Climate change appears to have negligible effect on low flow conditions of the river. Seasonal mean flow volume, however, may increase by more than the double and +30% to +40% for the Belg (small rainy season) and Kiremit (main rainy season) periods, respectively. Overall, it appears that climate change will result in an annual increase in flow volume for the Gilgel Abay River. The increase in flow is likely to have considerable importance for local small scale irrigation activities. Moreover, it will help harnessing a significant amount of water for ongoing dam projects in the Gilgel Abay River Basin.

Hydro-Meteorology and Water Budget of the Mara River Basin Under Land Use Change Scenarios

Mara is a transboundary river located in Kenya and Tanzania and considered to be an important life line to the inhabitants of the Mara-Serengeti ecosystem. It is also a source of water for domestic water supply, irrigation, livestock and wildlife. The alarming increase of water demand as well as the decline in the river flow in recent years has been a major challenge for water resource managers and stakeholders. This has necessitated the knowledge of the available water resources in the basin at different times of the year. Historical rainfall, minimum and maximum stream flows were analyzed. Inter and intra-annual variability of trends in streamflow are discussed. Landsat imagery was utilized in order to analyze the land use land cover in the upper Mara River basin. The semi-distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the basin water balance and understand the hydrologic effect of the recent land use changes from forest-to-agriculture. The results of this study provided the potential hydrological impacts of three land use change scenarios in the upper Mara River basin. It also adds to the existing literature and knowledge base with a view of promoting better land use management practices in the basin.

Nile River Basin

The Nile River basin is home to more than 238 million people covering 11 countries. The basin is characterized by unique ecological systems with varied landscapes including high mountains, tropical forests, woodlands, lakes, savannas, wetlands, arid lands, and deserts. The basin is also characterized by poverty, rapid population growth, environmental degradation, and frequent natural disasters. While the population in the basin is projected to increase significantly over the coming decades, the water resources are projected to decline, with an increase in environmental degradation. This will be a tremendous challenge in a basin where emerging water demands by upstream countries are forcing a new formula for the use of the scarce water resources. Unless a framework of agreement for equitable water sharing is reached soon between all riparian states, the potential for acute water conflict is high. Cooperation is essential for controlling watershed degradation and water quality decline.

Hydrological Variability and Climate of the Upper Blue Nile River Basin

This chapter discusses the hydrometeorology, land use, soils, topography, agroecological zones, extreme flows, climatic variability and climatic teleconnections of the upper Blue Nile River basin. The basin has a varied topography, rainfall and temperature resulting in different agroclimatic zones. Spatial distribution of annual rainfall over the basin shows high variation with the southern tip receiving as high as 2,049 mm and the northeastern tip as low as 794 mm annual average rainfall. The analysis of the basin’s river flow and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index connectivity indicates that the upper Blue Nile River basin rainfall and flows are teleconnected to the ENSO index. Based on event correspondence analysis, high rainfall and high flows are likely to occur during La Nina years and dry years are likely to occur during El Nino years at a confidence level of 90%. Low and high flow analysis for selected tributaries and flow at the Blue Nile River flow shows different recurrence intervals of the high and low flows.

Effects of Different Retention Parameter Estimation Methods on the Prediction of Surface Runoff Using the SCS Curve Number Method

Quantifying different hydrological components is an initial step for sustainable water resources planning and management. One rising concern is the conflict between the environment, hydropower and agriculture mainly in lowland areas where a large share of the base flows need to be abstracted. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to understand the hydrological processes of the Upper Awash River Basin with the emphasis on analyzing the different options for surface runoff generation using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) Curve Number (CN) method. In this study, SWAT was applied incorporating two methods for estimating the retention parameter (S) for the SCS-CN method. The first allowed S to vary with soil profile moisture content (SM method) and the second allowed S to vary with accumulated plant evapotranspiration (PT method). Hydrograph comparison indicated that the PT method was better in simulating peak flows while the SM method was better in simulating the low flows. While the predicted stream flow hydrographs showed an agreement between the two methods, the simulated annual water balance indicated a disagreement in quantifying the different hydrological components. After evapotranspiration, base flow was the dominant component simulated in the SM method whereas surface runoff was the foremost in the PT method simulation. The analysis indicated that care must be taken when selecting an appropriate tool for quantifying hydrologic system to be used for decision making especially for un-gauged catchments where validation of model results is not possible.

Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Water Resources Variability in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia

Climate Change impact on Agricultural Water Resources Variability in the Northern Highlands of Ethiopia

Climate Change Impact on Water Resources and Adaptation Strategies in the Blue Nile River Basin

We compared projected changes in precipitation and temperature across global climate models (GCMs) for two future periods to get an indication of the consistency of the projected changes in the Lake Tana subbasin of the Blue Nile basin. We found that the models projected temperature increases of around 2 °C to 5 °C for 2080–2100, depending on the model and emission scenario. The interquartile ranges of the projected temperature increases for 2070–2100 for the three emission scenarios show 2.0−4.4 °C in the wet season and 2.2−4.9 °C in the dry season. The ensemble of GCMs we examined includes models that project increases and decreases in seasonal precipitation. The interquartile ranges of the projected rainfall changes for 2070–2100 for the three emission scenarios show − 13 to + 12 % in the wet season and − 14 to + 16 % in the dry season. The study investigated how changes in temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in streamflows and other hydrological components using downscaled outputs from different climate models. The direction of streamflow changes followed the direction of changes in rainfall. The responses of evapotranspiration, soil moisture (SW), and groundwater (GW) were also examined, and it was found that changes in GW flow may be a significant component of the changes in streamflow.