Shinichiro Tabata

How Large is the Oil and Gas Sector of Russia? A Research Report

Two noted Japanese economists join forces with a Russian statistician to assess and analyze the size of Russias oil and gas sector. The authors discuss the methodology favored by Goskomstat Rossii that is based on the System of National Accounts (SNA) and data supplied by enterprises, and introduce their alternative calculations to approximate the sectors share in the countrys GDP. Their method is based on a modification of input-output tables, utilizing enterprise groups as units of statistical observation. Both methods are then compared and the resulting discrepancy traced to the sectors specific characteristics rather than to faulty methodological treatment by Goskomstat Rossii. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: C67, C82, E23, L71, Q43. 7 tables, 21 references.

Russian Revenues from Oil and Gas Exports: Flow and Taxation

A senior Japanese economist traces the flows of revenue derived from oil and gas exports through the Russian economy. The author examines the use of revenues and investigates their contribution to Russias state and regional budgets in the form of taxes. After detailing the methodological difficulties encountered in measuring revenue streams statistically, he proceeds to approximate their magnitude through intensive use of input-output table data and budget statistics provided by the Russian Federation Ministry of Finance. His investigation of the list of destination countries for Russian oil and petroleum products exports has interesting implications for the study of capital flight from Russia to the West. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F14, H20, Q43. 10 tables, 37 references.

The Russian Stabilization Fund and Its Successor: Implications for Inflation

A senior Japanese specialist on Russias economy and its oil- and gas-producing sectors analyzes the functions and performance of the Stabilization Fund of the Russian Federation and the new system replacing it in 2008. The Fund, created to diminish the effects of possible future decreases in oil prices on federal budget revenues and to absorb excess liquidity in the economy, was expected to exert a major curb on inflation. The author investigates the extent to which the latter, inflation-fighting role of the Fund has been fulfilled, given increases in the countrys money supply and in state-regulated prices within the natural monopolies. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E50, E62, H20, H60. 4 figures, 5 tables, 25 references.

Observations on the Influence of High Oil Prices on Russia's GDP Growth

A noted economist and observer of post-Soviet affairs presents a study probing the influence of high oil prices on Russias GDP growth. The paper analyzes the contributions to the countrys GDP by sectors of origin and final use, and pays special attention to the influence of trade margins produced by oil and gas but recorded and placed by Goskomstat Rossii in Russias trade sector. The authors interpretation of statistical data released by Goskomstat Rossii as well as by Russian customs authorities enables him to conclude that the present-day economic boom in Russia can be characterized as consumption-led growth fueled by oil and gas export revenues. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: C67, C82, E23, L71, Q43. 2 figures, 10 tables, 20 references.

The Impact of Global Financial Crisis on the Mechanism of Economic Growth in Russia

A noted specialist on the Russian economy presents an assessment of the impact of the global financial crisis on the mechanism of the countrys economic growth. Focusing on the demand side of the economic ledger, the author explores the question of whether Russia will be able to re-attain the high economic growth rates of the period from 2000 to 2007 after recovering from the crisis. The paper analyzes the sharp drop in production in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, attributing most of the damage to liquidity problems and declines in the price of oil. Empirical evidence is based primarily on data collected by the author from the Central Bank of Russia and the countrys federal bureau of statistics (Rosstat). Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E010, E200, E660, F210, G010. 11 figures, 3 tables, 29 references.

Observations on Russian Exposure to the Dutch Disease

A senior Japanese authority on the Russian economy and its energy sector addresses the countrys exposure to the so-called Dutch disease, suggesting that Russia did suffer from the potentially ruinous overdependence on oil and gas exports. The author argues, however, that the symptoms of the disease were actually not severe, attributing his interpretation to: (1) drastic decline of noncompetitive domestic manufacturing industries in the 1990s, which prompted a huge inflow of imports in the 2000s, but left competitive manufacturing enterprises in a position to survive; (2) extraordinary oil price increases in the 2000s, which significantly raised household and business incomes, creating augmented demand for products of domestic origin; (3) large differences between Russian and world prices of oil and gas, which functioned as subsidies for domestic manufacturing; and (4) massive intervention in foreign exchange markets by the Central Bank of Russia, which restricted the growth of imports and thus strengthened the surviving domestic manufacturing enterprises.

The Influence of High Oil Prices on the Russian Economy: A Comparison with Saudi Arabia

A senior Japanese specialist on Russias economy and its oil and natural gas sectors compares the influence of high oil prices on that economy as well as on Saudi Arabias. The author provides a penetrating analysis of the relation between oil price increases and GDP growth, of the growth of GDP by final use, and of the accumulation of state budget surpluses in the worlds two leading producers and exporters. Although brief references are made to the drastic decline in the price of oil prompted by the global economic crisis that emerged in the fall of 2008, the paper is specifically focused on the impact of price increases that peaked in July. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: E660, H200, H600, O110, Q400. 9 figures, 6 tables, 35 references.

Observations on Changes in Russia's Comparative Advantage, 1994-2005

A senior Japanese specialist on Russias economy and its oil- and gas-producing sectors calculates that countrys Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Revealed Comparative Disadvantage (RCD), and Trade Specialization Index (TSI) on the basis of foreign trade data compiled by Russias Federal Customs Service. The focus is on changes in comparative advantage of Russias major export and import commodities over the 1994-2005 period. The results of the analyses make it possible to test the assertion that the increasing competitiveness of oil and gas exports (and secondarily those of armaments, selected base metals, roundwood, and fertilizers) must compensate for declining competitiveness in (and increasing imports of) meat, plastics, and automobile production and stagnation in the machinery sectors. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: F02, F14, 011. 4 figures, 8 tables, 11 references.

Changes in the Structure and Distribution of Russian GDP in the 1990s

The author, a noted Japanese observer of Soviet and post-Soviet economic affairs, examines System of National Accounts data for the Russian Federation in order to analyze changes in the structure and distribution of Russian GDP during the six-year period commencing in 1989. The study, based in part on first-hand investigation in Moscow in late 1995 and on hitherto unpublished raw data, represents an initial attempt to examine the methodology underlying the compilation of Russian System of National Accounts statistics, which the Russian Government began to publish only recently. A distinct focus is on GDP by sector of origin and by end use, and on distribution of income. 9 tables, 22 references. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O11, O47, P24.

The Anatomy of Russian Foreign Trade Statistics

The study, by a noted Japanese economist and observer of Soviet and post-Soviet economic affairs, represents a pioneering effort to evaluate the statistical data base reflecting Russian foreign trade. The author examines in minute detail the inconsistencies and deficiencies of data compiled from 1985 to mid-1994, focusing on classification and highlighting the changing and conflicting methods of compilation. Tracing and tabulating data valued in dollars and foreign trade rubles, he also covers and analyzes Russian statistics detailing trade in commodities. Also discussed is the geographic distribution of Russian exports and imports to foreign countries in the late 1980s and 1990s. 1 figure, 10 tables, 37 references.