Shintaro Takao

A phytoplankton absorption-based primary productivity model for remote sensing in the Southern Ocean

Recent global environmental changes such as an increase in sea surface temperature (SST) are likely to impact primary productivity of phytoplankton in the Southern Ocean. However, models to estimate net primary production using satellite data use SST and uncertain estimation of chlorophyll a (chl-a) concentration. A primary productivity model for satellite ocean color data from the Southern Ocean, which is based on the light absorption coefficient of phytoplankton to reduce uncertainties of sea surface chl-a estimations and bias in optimal values of chl-a normalized productivity derived from SST, has been developed. The new model was able to estimate net primary productivity in the water column (PPeu) without dependency on temperature when in the range of −2 to 25°C, and it explained 51% of the observed variability in PPeu with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.15. Application of the model revealed that the SST dependent model has overestimated PPeu in warmer waters around the Subtropical Front, and underestimated PPeu in colder waters poleward of the Sub-Antarctic Front. This absorption-based primary productivity model contributes to a study of the relationship among spatio-temporal variations in the physical environment, and biogeochemical cycles in the Southern Ocean.

Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios.

Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST-based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of warming seawater on the spatial extent of suitable versus unsuitable habitats for temperate seaweed Ecklonia cava, which is predominantly found in southern Japanese waters. SST data were generated using the most recent multiple climate projection models and emission scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, grazing by Siganus fuscescens, an herbivorous fish, was evaluated under the four RCP simulations. Our results suggest that continued warming may drive a poleward shift in the distribution of E. cava, with large differences depending on the climate scenario. For the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6), most existing E. cava populations would not be impacted by seawater warming directly but would be adversely affected by intensified year-round grazing. For the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5), previously suitable habitats throughout coastal Japan would become untenable for E. cava by the 2090s, due to both high-temperature stress and intensified grazing. Our projections highlight the importance of not only mitigating regional warming due to climate change, but also protecting E. cava from herbivores to conserve suitable habitats on the Japanese coast.

An improved estimation of the poleward expansion of coral habitats based on the inter-annual variation of sea surface temperatures

The poleward expansion of coral habitats has been observed along the Japanese coast since the 1930s. Previous modeling studies have projected a poleward expansion using decadal-mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the coldest months. However, this poleward expansion could be affected by the inter-annual variation of SST in the coldest months, which has not been considered before. In this study, the simulated pattern of poleward expansion was compared between cases where coral mortality was considered based on the inter-annual variation of SST and the decadal-mean SST in the coldest months. Modeled monthly mean SSTs for historical and future global warming simulations from the most recent climate projection model (MIROC4h) were used. The poleward expansion of corals simulated by considering mortality based on the inter-annual variation of SST in the coldest months better reproduced the observed poleward expansion speed compared to the simulations without such a consideration. Our results show the importance of considering coral mortality based on the inter-annual variation of seawater temperature to produce a more realistic poleward expansion of coral habitats.

Phytoplankton community composition and photosynthetic physiology in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean during the austral summer of 2010/2011

Phytoplankton population dynamics play an important role in biogeochemical cycles in the Southern Ocean during austral summer. However, the relationship between phytoplankton community composition and primary productivity remains elusive in this region. We investigated the community composition and photosynthetic physiology of surface phytoplankton assemblages in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean from December 2010 to January 2011. There were significant latitudinal variations in hydrographic and biological parameters along 110°E and 140°E. Surface (5xa0m) chlorophyll a (chl a) concentrations measured with high-performance liquid chromatography varied between 0.18 and 0.99xa0mgxa0m−3. The diatom contribution to the surface chl a biomass increased in the south, as estimated with algal chemotaxonomic pigment markers, while the contributions of haptophytes and chlorophytes decreased. In our photosynthesis–irradiance (P–E) curve experiment, the maximum photosynthetic rate normalized to chl a (

Ocean currents and herbivory drive macroalgae-to-coral community shift under climate warming

P_{ hbox{max} }^{*}

Variations of net primary productivity and phytoplankton community composition in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean as estimated from ocean color remote sensing data

Pmax∗), initial slope (α*), the maximum quantum yield of carbon fixation (Φc max), and the photoinhibition index (β*) were higher in the region where diatoms contributed >50xa0% to the chl a biomass. In addition, there were statistically significant correlations between the diatom contribution to the chl a biomass and the P–E parameters. These results suggested that the changes in the phytoplankton community composition, primarily in diatoms, could strongly affect photosynthetic physiology in the Australian sector of the Southern Ocean.

Evaluation of using unfiltered seawater for underway measurement of dimethyl sulfide in the ocean by online mass spectrometry

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.

Bio-optical properties during the summer season in the Sea of Okhotsk

Significance Global degradation of coral reefs and macroalgal beds can have ecosystem-wide implications for biodiversity, ecological functioning, and ocean resources. However, recent studies in warm temperate zones have documented community shifts from macroalgae to corals, signaling a potential mechanism for coral conservation under climate warming. Here, we present evidence that warming, aided by the dominant poleward-flowing current system, is facilitating the expansion of tropical corals and herbivorous fishes into existing temperate Japanese macroalgae communities, which are contracting faster than they are expanding. Furthermore, our results suggest future climate change may exacerbate this process, potentially compromising the long-term stability of these communities. Future conservation of these communities might require of a more proactive management toward climate adaptation. Coral and macroalgal communities are threatened by global stressors. However, recently reported community shifts from temperate macroalgae to tropical corals offer conservation potential for corals at the expense of macroalgae under climate warming. Although such community shifts are expanding geographically, our understanding of the driving processes is still limited. Here, we reconstruct long-term climate-driven range shifts in 45 species of macroalgae, corals, and herbivorous fishes from over 60 years of records (mainly 1950–2015), stretching across 3,000 km of the Japanese archipelago from tropical to subarctic zones. Based on a revised coastal version of climate velocity trajectories, we found that prediction models combining the effects of climate and ocean currents consistently explained observed community shifts significantly better than those relying on climate alone. Corals and herbivorous fishes performed better at exploiting opportunities offered by this interaction. The contrasting range dynamics for these taxa suggest that ocean warming is promoting macroalgal-to-coral shifts both directly by increased competition from the expansion of tropical corals into the contracting temperate macroalgae, and indirectly via deforestation by the expansion of tropical herbivorous fish. Beyond individual species’ effects, our results provide evidence on the important role that the interaction between climate warming and external forces conditioning the dispersal of organisms, such as ocean currents, can have in shaping community-level responses, with concomitant changes to ecosystem structure and functioning. Furthermore, we found that community shifts from macroalgae to corals might accelerate with future climate warming, highlighting the complexity of managing these evolving communities under future climate change.