Shiqiang Zhang

Remote estimation of terrestrial evapotranspiration by Landsat 5 TM and the SEBAL model in cold and high-altitude regions: a case study of the upper reach of the Shule River Basin, China

Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important expenditure in water and energy balances, especially on cold and high-altitude land surfaces. Daily ET of the upper reach of the Shule River Basin was estimated using Landsat 5 TM data and the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model. Based on observations made at the Suli station, the algorithms of land surface temperature and soil heat flux in SEBAL were modified. Land surface temperature was retrieved and compared with ground truth via three methods: the radiative transfer equation method, the mono-window algorithm, and the single-channel method. We selected the best of these methods, mono-window algorithm, for estimating ET. The average error of daily ET estimated by the modified SEBAL model and measured by the eddy covariance system was 16.4%, with a root-mean-square error of 0.52 mm d−1. The estimated ET means were 3.09, 2.48, and 1.48 mm d−1 on June 9 (DOY 160), June 25 (DOY 176), and July 27 (DOY 208) of the year 2010, respectively. The average estimated ET on the glacier surface of all days was more than 3 mm d−1, a measurement that is difficult to capture in-situ and has rarely been reported. This study will improve the understanding of water balance in cold, high-altitude regions. Copyright

Modeling Hydrologic Response to Climate Change and Shrinking Glaciers in the Highly Glacierized Kunma Like River Catchment, Central Tian Shan

AbstractArid and semiarid lowland areas of central Asia are largely dependent on fluvial water originating from the Tian Shan. Mountain glaciers contribute significantly to runoff, particularly in summer. With global warming, the total glacier area in the Kunma Like River catchment declined by 13.2% during 1990–2007. For future water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, such as the headwaters of the Tarim River. Thus, a degree-day glacier melt algorithm was integrated into the macroscale hydrologic Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Good results were obtained for monthly runoff simulations in the Kunma Like River catchment, which suggest that the extended VIC has acceptable performance. Because of increased precipitation and air temperature, annual runoff in the catchment has increased by about 4.07 × 108 m3 decade−1 during 1984/85–2006/07. Under the assumption of the same climatic con...

Evaluation of High-Resolution Satellite-Based Real-Time and Post-Real-Time Precipitation Estimates during 2010 Extreme Flood Event in Swat River Basin, Hindukush Region

Satellite-based real-time and post-real-time precipitation estimates of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-3B42) were evaluated during an extreme heavy precipitation event (on 28–30 July 2010) over Swat River Basin and adjacent areas in Hindukush Region. Observations of 15 rain gauging stations were used for the evaluation of TMPA products. Results showed that the spatial pattern of precipitation in the event was generally captured by post-real-time product (3B42V7) but misplaced by real-time product (3B42RT), witnessed by a high spatial correlation coefficient for 3B42V7 (CC = 0.87) and low spatial correlation coefficient for 3B42RT (CC = 0.20). The temporal variation of the storm precipitation was not well captured by both TMPA products. 3B42V7 product underestimated the storm accumulated precipitation by 32.15%, while underestimation by 3B42RT was 66.73%. Based on the findings of this study, we suggest that the latest TMPA-based precipitation products, 3B42RT and 3B42V7, might not be able to perform well during extreme precipitation events, particularly in complex terrain regions like Hindukush Mountains. Therefore, cautions should be considered while using 3B42RT and 3B42V7 as input data source for the modelling, forecasting, and monitoring of floods and potential landslides in Hindukush Region.

Glacial Runoff Likely Reached Peak in the Mountainous Areas of the Shiyang River Basin,China

Glacier runoff in mountain areas of the Shiyang River Basin (SRB), Qilian Mountain, western China is important for the river and water supply downstream. Small glaciers with area of less than 1 km2 are dominant (87%) in the SRB. A modified monthly degree-day model was applied to quantify the glacier mass balance, area, and changes in glacier runoff in the SRB during 1961–2050. The comparison between the simulated and observed snow line altitude, annual glacier runoff, and mass balance from 1961 to 2008 suggests that the degree-day model may be used to analyze the long-term change of glacier mass balance and runoff in the SRB. The glacier accumulation shows a significant (p<0.01) decreasing trend of −0.830 mm a−1. The mass balance also shows a significant (p<0.01) decreasing trend of −5.521 mm a−1. The glacier total runoff has significantly (p<0.05) increased by 0.079 × 105 m3 from 1961 to 2008. The monthly precipitation and air temperature are projected to significant (p<0.005) increase during 2015 to 2050 under three different scenarios. The ablation is projected to significant (p<0.001) increase, while the accumulation has no significant (p=0.05) trend. The mass balance is projected to decrease, the glacier area is projected to decrease, and the glacier runoff depth is projected to increase. However, the glacier total runoff is projected to decrease. These results indicate that the glacier total runoff over glacier areas observed in 1970 reached its peak in the 2000s. This will exacerbate the contradiction between water supply and downstream water demands in the SRB.

Validation of the Accuracy of Different Precipitation Datasets over Tianshan Mountainous Area

Precipitation is one of the important water supplies in the arid and semiarid regions of northwestern China, playing a vital role in maintaining the fragile ecosystem. In remote mountainous area, it is difficult to obtain an accurate and reliable spatialization of the precipitation amount at the regional scale due to the inaccessibility, the sparsity of observation stations, and the complexity of relationships between precipitation and topography. Furthermore, accurate precipitation is important driven data for hydrological models to assess the water balance and water resource for hydrologists. Therefore, the use of satellite remote sensing becomes an important means over mountainous area. Precipitation datasets based on station data or pure satellite data have been increasingly available in spite of several weaknesses. This paper evaluates the usefulness of three precipitation datasets including TRMM 3B43_V6, 3B43_V7, and Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation with rain gauge data over Tianshan mountainous area where precipitation data is scarce. The results suggest that precipitation measurements only provided accurate information on a small scale, while the satellite remote sensing of precipitation had obvious advantages in basin scale or large scale especially over remote mountainous area.

Accelerated thinning of Hei Valley No. 8 Glacier in the Tianshan Mountains, China

Two field surveys on the thickness of Hei Valley No. 8 Glacier (H8) on the southern slope of Mount Bogda in the Tianshan (天山) Mountains using ground-penetration radar (GPR) were carried out in August 2008 and September 2009. Comparisons of the observed change in glacier thickness using GPR and ablation stakes suggest that GPR observations have high accuracy. Thus, the thickness change for H8 during 2008–2009 was estimated using GPR data. Digital elevation models obtained from topographic maps and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission were used to analyze ice-elevation changes of H8 between 1 969 and 2 000 m a.s.l.. The results show that H8 has continually thinned, and the thinning rate has increased gradually. The thinning of ablation areas of H8 increased from 0.42±0.56 m/a in 1969–2000 to 1.47±0.79 m/a in 2000–2008, and then accelerated to 1.92±0.98 m/a in 2008–2009. The retreat of the glacier terminus has had a similar pattern. The distribution of the temperate-ice zone of H8 as determined from GPR data also implies that H8 has experienced strong melting from 2008 to 2009, which indicates that temperature rises have not only enhanced glacial surface melting and prolonged melting periods, but also changed the englacial structure and increased the water content of glacier, both of which probably lead to the acceleration of glacial thinning.

Estimating the characteristics of runoff inflow into Lake Gojal in ungauged, highly glacierized upper Hunza River Basin, Pakistan

Motivated by the potential flood outburst of Lake Gojal in the ungauged highly glacierized (27%) upper Hunza River Basin (HRB) in Pakistan that was dammed by a massive landslide on 4 January 2010, we attempt to analyze the characteristics of water inflow to the lake employing remote sensing data, two hydrological models, and sparsely observed data. One of the models (Model I) is a monthly degree-day model, while another (Model II) is the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model. The mixture of glacier runoff output from Model I and runoff over unglacierized areas calculated by Model II has a similar seasonal variation pattern as that estimated from data recorded at a downstream station. This suggests that glacier runoff is the main source (87%) of runoff inflow into the lake. A sensitivity analysis suggests that the water inflow to the lake is highly sensitive to an increase in air temperature. Runoff in May is predicted to sharply increase by 15% to more than two-fold if the air temperature increases by 1 to 7, but it is predicted to increase only from 9% to 34% if the precipitation increases by 10% to 40%. The results suggested that the water inflow into Lake Gojal will not sharply rise even if there is heavy rain, and it needs to be in caution if the air temperature sharply increases. Analysis on long-term air temperature record indicates that the water inflow into the lake in May 2010 was probably less than average owing to the relatively low air temperature. Consequently, the flood outburst did not occur before the completion of the spillway on 29 May 2010.

Methodological comparison of alpine meadow evapotranspiration on the Tibetan Plateau, China

Estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) for alpine meadow areas in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is essential for water resource management. However, observation data has been limited due to the extreme climates and complex terrain of this region. To address these issues, four representative methods, Penman-Monteith (PM), Priestley-Taylor (PT), Hargreaves-Samani (HS), and Mahringer (MG) methods, were adopted to estimate ET, which were then compared with ET measured using Eddy Covariance (EC) for five alpine meadow sites during the growing seasons from 2010 to 2014. And each site was measured for one growing season during this period. The results demonstrate that the PT method outperformed at all sites with a coefficient of determination (R2) ranging from 0.76 to 0.94 and root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 0.41 to 0.62 mm d-1. The PM method showed better performance than HS and MG methods, and the HS method produced relatively acceptable results with higher R2 (0.46) and lower RMSE (0.89 mm d-1) compared to MG method with R2 of 0.16 and RMSE of 1.62 mm d-1, while MG underestimated ET at all alpine meadow sites. Therefore, the PT method, being the simpler approach and less data dependent, is recommended to estimate ET for alpine meadow areas in the Tibetan Plateau. The PM method produced reliable results when available data were sufficient, and the HS method proved to be a complementary method when variables were insufficient. On the contrary, the MG method always underestimated ET and is, thus, not suitable for alpine meadows. These results provide a basis for estimating ET on the Tibetan Plateau for annual data collection, analysis, and future studies.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Environment, Economy, and Society of China

This chapter evaluates the characteristics and extent of impacts of modern climate change on the hydrology, ecology, agriculture, health, economy, and society of China. The impacts of climate change on water resources, hydrological processes, the cryosphere, and ocean hydrological processes are analyzed, as well as the impacts on land ecosystems, desertification, and soil erosion. The impact of global sea-level change on marine ecology and the coastal environment is comprehensively assessed. The chapter also summarized the impact of climate change on farming, animal husbandry, forestry, aquaculture, and fisheries.

Carbon dioxide flux in the ablation area of Koxkar glacier, western Tien Shan, China

Abstract Accelerating loss of glacial mass caused by rising global temperatures has significant implications. The global cycle of the greenhouse gas CO2 is also associated with mineral weathering and glaciation. In glaciated areas, most estimates of atmospheric CO2 consumption are confined to chemical ionic mass balance or analog modeling methods. We applied the gradient method to the surface of Koxkar glacier, western Tien Shan, China, for a 5 month period during 2012. The overall net glacier-system CO2 exchange (NGE) rate was measured as -0.05 and -0.07mmol m–2 s–1 for regions of exposed ice and supraglacial moraine, respectively. This suggests that atmospheric CO2 drawdown may occur during ice melting because of consumption of H+ by CO2 hydrolysis that occurs in solutions. Using the degree-day model to calculate glacier ablation in bare-ice regions and considering characteristics of the NGE rate in the supraglacial debris region with the support of GIS, the daily NGE rate was estimated to be -1.23 ± 0.17μmmol m–2 d–1 between Julian days 125 and 268 of 2012. These findings present a new approach for modeling the dynamics of glacial CO2 sinks undergoing melting, and develop an understanding of the mechanism of atmospheric CO2 exchange.