Shirley T. Murillo

NOAA'S Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A Progress Report

An update of the progress achieved as part of the NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) is provided. Included is a brief summary of the noteworthy aircraft missions flown in the years since 2005, the first year IFEX flights occurred, as well as a description of the research and development activities that directly address the three primary IFEX goals: 1) collect observations that span the tropical cyclone (TC) life cycle in a variety of environments for model initialization and evaluation; 2) develop and refine measurement strategies and technologies that provide improved real-time monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and environment; and 3) improve the understanding of physical processes important in intensity change for a TC at all stages of its life cycle. Such activities include the real-time analysis and transmission of Doppler radar measurements; numerical model and data assimilation advancements; characterization of tropical cyclone composite structure across multiple scales, from vortex s...

Real-Time Implementation of Single-Doppler Radar Analysis Methods for Tropical Cyclones: Algorithm Improvements and Use with WSR-88D Display Data

Abstract The NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center has sought techniques that use single-Doppler radar data to estimate the tropical cyclone wind field. A cooperative effort with NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory/Hurricane Research Division and NCAR has resulted in significant progress in developing a method whereby radar display data are used as a proxy for a full-resolution base data and in improving and implementing existing wind retrieval and center-finding techniques. These techniques include the ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD), tracking radar echoes by correlation (TREC), GBVTD- simplex, and the principal component analysis (PCA) methods. The GBVTD and TREC algorithms are successfully applied to the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) display data of Hurricane Bret (1999) and Tropical Storm Barry (2001). GBVTD analyses utilized circulation center estimates provided by the GBVTD-simplex and PCA methods, whereas TREC analys...

The Emergence of Weather-Related Test Beds Linking Research and Forecasting Operations

Test beds have emerged as a critical mechanism linking weather research with forecasting operations. The U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) was formed in the 1990s to help identify key gaps in research related to major weather prediction problems and the role of observations and numerical models. This planning effort ultimately revealed the need for greater capacity and new approaches to improve the connectivity between the research and forecasting enterprise. Out of this developed the seeds for what is now termed “test beds.” While many individual projects, and even more broadly the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Modernization, were successful in advancing weather prediction services, it was recognized that specific forecast problems warranted a more focused and elevated level of effort. The USWRP helped develop these concepts with science teams and provided seed funding for several of the test beds described. Based on the varying NOAA mission requirements for forecasting, differences in the orga...

TROPICAL CYCLONE WINDS AT LANDFALL: The ASOS–C-MAN Wind Exposure Documentation Project

Photographs describing the wind exposure at automatic weather stations susceptible to tropical cyclones are now available on Web pages at the National Climatic Data Center and the National Data Buoy Center. Given the exposure for one of eight wind direction sectors, a user may estimate the aerodynamic roughness and correct mean wind measurements to an open-terrain exposure. The open-terrain exposure is consistent with the tropical cyclone advisories and forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as well as building design wind load standards published by the American Society of Civil Engineers.

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to Evaluate the Potential Impact of an Optical Autocovariance Wind Lidar (OAWL) on Numerical Weather Prediction

AbstractThe potential impact of Doppler wind lidar (DWL) observations from a proposed optical autocovariance wind lidar (OAWL) instrument is quantified in observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). The OAWL design would provide profiles of useful wind vectors along a ground track to the left of the International Space Station (ISS), which is in a 51.6° inclination low-Earth orbit (LEO). These observations are simulated realistically, accounting for cloud and aerosol distributions inferred from the OSSE nature runs (NRs), and measurement and sampling error sources. The impact of the simulated observations is determined in both global and regional OSSE frameworks. The global OSSE uses the ECMWF T511 NR and the NCEP operational Global Data Assimilation System at T382 resolution. The regional OSSE uses an embedded hurricane NR and the NCEP operational HWRF data assimilation system with outer and inner domains of 9- and 3-km resolution, respectively.The global OSSE results show improved analyses and fore...

Intercomparison of Ground-Based Velocity Track Display (GBVTD)-Retrieved Circulation Centers and Structures of Hurricane Danny (1997) from Two Coastal WSR-88Ds

Abstract A plausible primary circulation and circulation center of a tropical cyclone (TC) can be deduced from a coastal Doppler radar using the ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD) technique and the GBVTD-simplex algorithm. The quality of the retrieved primary circulation is highly sensitive to the accuracy of the circulation center that can only be estimated from the degree of scattering of all possible centers obtained in GBVTD-simplex analyses from a single radar in real TCs. This study extends previous work to examine the uncertainties in the GBVTD-simplex-derived circulation centers and the GBVTD-derived primary circulations in Hurricane Danny (1997) sampled simultaneously from two Doppler radars [Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Dopplers (WSR-88Ds) in Mobile, Alabama, and Slidell, Louisiana] for 5 h. It is found that the mean difference between the individually computed GBVTD-simplex-derived centers is 2.13 km, similar to the estimates in previous studies. This value can be improved to 1.59 k...

AMS MEMBERSHIP SURVEY RESULTS: An Overview and Longitudinal Analysis of the Demographics of the AMS

Abstract The 2005 membership survey is the fifth in a series of surveys that has monitored the composition of the AMS since 1975. The responses of the 2005 survey reveal several interesting changes in the educational level, employment characteristics, and personal status of Society members. The proportion of members with Ph.D. degrees has increased with time to 46% of the regular (nonstudent) and retired members in 2005. Universities/colleges, the federal government, and radio/TV remain the three most important employers of AMS members, although their relative importance has changed with time, with universities/colleges now employing more members than the federal government. Most AMS members continue to report that they became interested in the atmospheric sciences in either elementary school or as undergraduates, although the importance of early (K–6) experiences has increased with time. The age distribution of AMS members in 2005 suggests that the gradual aging of the AMS membership reported earlier (ba...

THE 15TH AMS EDUCATION SYMPOSIUM

In final form 28 September 2006 ©2007 American Meteorological Society he 15th Education Symposium, held as part of the 86th American Meteorological Society (AMS) Annual Meeting, addressed the scope of education and outreach efforts within atmospheric and related sciences. The symposium was animated by the participants’ deep commitment to the goal of broadening the impact of science and contributing to the development of a literate scientific population. The goals of the symposium were to share the innovations and lessons learned, and to energize the participants to continue as change agents in atmospheric education. These goals were realized though formal presentations and posters, and, equally important, informal conversations. This year, the program focused on innovations in K–16 education, the growing opportunities in the arena of space weather, and the role of data in the classroom. The program consisted of 58 posters and 39 oral presentations. Posters were emphasized because the symposium organizers wanted to focus on a venue that encouraged greater interaction between the presenters and their audience. Three themes emerged from the symposium. The first theme was the notion that K–12 education, particularly in the atmospheric and related sciences, is a shared responsibility—that universities, government agencies, and even publishers can and should play an active role in supporting K–12 education, both nationally and internationally. A second crosscutting theme emphasized the need for students and citizens to experience science not only as observers, but also as participants. For example, two programs—Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) and the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS)—involve either students or citizens in collecting atmospheric data. A third, and related, crosscutting theme was centered around the development and use of tools, especially visualization tools, that can involve students in scientific exploration of atmospheric data. As one presenter noted, real learning occurs not from a textbook, but from real investigations driven by data. THE 15TH AMS EDUCATION SYMPOSIUM