Shiu-Sheng Chen

Assessment of Weymark's Measures of Exchange Market Intervention: The Case of Japan

This paper assesses the validity of the index of foreign exchange market intervention proposed by Weymark. We construct the Weymark index for Japan and then compare it with Japanese public intervention data to evaluate its performance. The results suggest that research using the Weymark index should be interpreted with caution. Copyright 2007 The Authors Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Long-Horizon Regression Tests

This article considers the long-run relationship between nominal exchange rates and fundamentals from a different perspective. We apply a long-horizon regression approach proposed by Fisher and Seater (1993) and find evidence supporting the explanatory power of exchange rate models. In particular, the Taylor-rule model outperforms other conventional models. We then use the inverse power function (IPF) proposed by Andrews (1989) to investigate the power of the Fisher-Seater test. The IPF analysis provides additional evidence supporting exchange rate models. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2009.

Predicting US Recessions with Stock Market Illiquidity

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic link between recessions and stock market liquidity by examining the predictive content of illiquidity for US recessions. After controlling for other commonly featured recession predictors such as term spreads and credit spreads, we find that the illiquidity measure proposed by (Amihud, Y. 2002. “Illiquidity and Stock Returns: Cross-Section and Time-Series Effects.” Journal of Financial Markets 5: 375–340) has strong power in predicting recessions. Moreover, the predictability of the illiquidity measure of small firms is found to be stronger than that of large firms, which supports the hypothesis of “flight to liquidity.”

Consumer confidence and stock returns over market fluctuations

This paper investigates the link between consumer confidence and stock returns over stock market fluctuations. In particular, I focus on whether the returns have asymmetric effects on confidence. The empirical results from both in-sample and out-of-sample tests provide strong evidence of the existence of an asymmetric linkage between stock returns and consumer confidence: the impacts of returns on confidence are larger in bear markets. Moreover, variables such as the term structure, changes in federal fund rates, changes in unemployment rates, and changes in world oil prices are found to be negatively associated with consumer confidence, as expected.

Does Fear Lead To Recessions

This paper investigates the link between consumer pessimism and U.S. economic recessions empirically. First we use structural vector autoregressive models to identify negative structural shocks to consumer confidence, which are used as a proxy for recession fear. We then apply probit models and time-varying-transition-probability Markov-switching autoregressive models to investigate how the lack of consumer confidence affects the probability of recession. We find that recession fear leads to a higher probability of economic downturns. Furthermore, strong evidence exists that an increase in market pessimism may push the economy from an expansion state to a recession state. We also find weaker evidence suggesting that a lack of consumer confidence may trap the economy in the depressed regime longer. We conclude that a lack of confidence can push the economy into recession.

TAIWAN'S EXCHANGE RATE AND MACROECONOMIC POLICIES OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE

This paper investigates exchange rate and monetary policies over the business cycle in Taiwan. We first characterize the business cycle dynamics in Taiwan and identify foreign shocks as the main cause of any fluctuations. We then briefly review the exchange rate system and policy operating in Taiwan since the early 1980s. Finally, we investigate the current recession, and discuss how the Taiwanese government is dealing with the economic slowdown.

Commodity Prices and Related Equity Prices

This paper shows that commodity-sensitive stock price indices have strong power in predicting nominal and real commodity prices at short horizons (one-month-ahead predictions) using both in- and out-of-sample tests. The forecasts based on commodity-sensitive stock price indices are able to significantly outperform naive no-change forecasts. For example, the one-month-ahead forecasts for nominal commodity prices reduce the mean squared prediction error by between 1.5% (for natural gas prices) and 20% (for copper prices). Moreover, the one-month-ahead directional forecast is found to perform significantly better than a 50:50 coin toss. As stock prices are not subject to revision, the proposed variable, which reflects timely and readily available market information, can potentially be a valuable predictor and thereby help to improve the accuracy of commodity price forecasts.

The Liquidity Effect in a Flexible-Price Monetary Model

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic policy shocks in a flexible-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with money. Rather than adopting a money supply rule, monetary policy is modelled as a central bank using a simple interest rate rule (Taylor rule). Without assuming price stickiness or frictions in financial markets, this model is found to account for liquidity effects, generate higher persistence in output and inflation, and capture the positive unconditional cross-correlations relating inflation and output. Copyright 2008 , Oxford University Press.

Macroeconomic fluctuations and welfare cost of stabilization policy

Abstract This paper uses an extended Real-Business-Cycle (RBC) model including money and government spending to analyze US macroeconomic policy and business cycles. There exist two kinds of exogenous shocks: nominal random disturbance (money) and real random disturbance (technology, government spending and tax rate). In addition, the welfare cost of business cycles is measured and different stabilization policies are discussed and compared. The results of the calibration indicate that this model can mimic the characteristics of post-war business cycles well and that it does a good job of explaining the dynamic interactions of money and real variables. It is obvious that monetary and fiscal shocks play important roles in the explanation of post-war business cycles. According to the welfare cost of different stabilization policies, it can be found that (1) monetary policy may be a better stabilization policy than other policies, (2) there may exist a kind of “Laffer curve” patterns for the feedback coefficient of government consumption, and (3) tax smoothing induces lower welfare cost than variable tax rate.

USING DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES TO REVISIT THE CONSUMPTION–REAL EXCHANGE RATE ANOMALY*

I use a panel data set covering 26 OECD countries between 1960 and 2004 to revisit the consumption–real exchange rate anomaly. After using demographic variables (in particular, the fertility rate) as instruments, I document a new empirical regularity that higher real exchange rates are associated with higher relative consumption. This positive relationship is statistically significant and has been shown to be robust. Such a finding may suggest that the theoretical prediction in Backus and Smith (Journal of International Economics, Vol. 35 (1993), pp. 297–316) is no longer at odds with the data.