Shlomi Dinar

Climate change and the institutional resilience of international river basins

In the existing 276 international river basins, the increase in water variability projected by most climate change scenarios may present serious challenges to riparian states. This research maps the institutional resilience to water variability in transboundary basins and combines it with both historic and projected variability regimes, with the objective of identifying areas at potential risk of future hydropolitical tension. To do so, it combs existing international treaties for sources of institutional resilience and considers the coefficient of variation of runoff as a measure of past and future water variability. The study finds significant gaps in both the number of people and area covered by institutional stipulations to deal with variability in South America and Asia. At present, high potential risk for hydropolitical tensions associated with water variability is identified in 24 transboundary basins and seems to be concentrated mainly in northern and sub-Saharan Africa. By 2050, areas at greatest potential risk are more spatially dispersed and can be found in 61 international basins, and some of the potentially large impacts of climate change are projected to occur away from those areas currently under scrutiny. Understanding when and where to target capacity-building in transboundary river basins for greater resilience to change is critical. This study represents a step toward facilitating these efforts and informing further qualitative and quantitative research into the relationship between climate change, hydrological variability regimes, and institutional capacity for accommodating variability.

Bridges Over Water:Understanding Transboundary Water Conflict, Negotiation and Cooperation

Bridges over Water places the study of transboundary water conflicts, negotiation, and cooperation in the context of various disciplines, such as international relations, international law, international negotiations, and economics. It demonstrates their application, using various quantitative approaches, such as river basin modeling, quantitative negotiation theory, and game theory. Case-studies of particular transboundary river basins, lakes, and aquifers are also considered. This second edition updates the literature on international water and in-depth analyses on political developments and cooperation between riparian states. With an appended chapter on principles and practices of negotiation, and a new case study on the La Plata Basin, this edition is a timely update to the field of transboundary water studies. Contents: Introduction: State of Water and Interstate Water Relations Overview of Literature on Conflict Negotiation and Cooperation Over Shared Waters The Development and Application of International Water Law Principles and Practices of Cooperation in Managing International Water Cooperative Game Theory and Water Resources: Principles Cooperative Game Theory and Water Resources: Application of Solution Concepts Principles and Practices of Negotiation: A Quantitative Approach Hydropolitics and International Relations An Overview of Selected International Water Treaties in Their Geographic and Political Contexts Global Analysis of International Water Agreements The Use of River Basin Modeling as a Tool to Assess Conflict and Potential Cooperation Conclusion Case Studies: The Mekong River Basin The Ganges Basin (With Focus on India and Bangledesh) The Indus River Basin The Aral Sea Basin The La Plata River Basin Annexes: The Generica: An Outline for Preparing a Basin Case Study River Basin Cooperative Game Theory Example Readership: Graduates in economics, engineering, water law, international relations and practitioners in water resource management, international water law and water policies. Key Features: An original textbook that combines several disciplines that together allow understanding and analyzing of conflict, negotiation and cooperation in transboundary water A balanced set of conceptual approaches and case studies from all over the world Supplementary material include: a computer program that allows users to practice various concepts of cooperation, demonstrating them via quantitative examples and outcomes, various annexes of treaties Each chapter includes sections on chapter objectives; glossary of main terminology; summary; practice questions; and list of recommended readings

Scarcity and Cooperation Along International Rivers

Scarcity is often argued to be an important variable associated with explaining both conflict and cooperation over international freshwater. Yet it is the relationship between scarcity and cooperation that deserves additional scrutiny and, subsequently, rigorous empirical investigation. Building on existing literature, this article highlights the relationship between water scarcity and interstate cooperation. A model is introduced hypothesizing that cooperation is most likely to take place when the resource is neither abundant (when there is no real impetus for cooperation) nor highly scarce (when there is little of the resource to divide among the parties or the degradation too costly to manage). Rather, formal coordination in the form of an international water treaty is most likely to ensue at levels of moderate (or relative) scarcity. An inverted U-shaped curve, rather than a linear interaction, is consequently suggested for the relationship between water scarcity and cooperation. To illustrate this relationship, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) test is conducted using seventy-four country dyad observations, an associated scarcity index, and corresponding international treaty observations. Overall, results support the scarcity-cooperation assertion. Future research is needed to investigate this relationship in a more empirical and econometrically rigorous fashion.

Power Asymmetry and Negotiations in International River Basins

Realist thinkers traditionally argue that when the upstream state is the river basins hegemon, cooperation is least likely to materialize. Conversely, when the downstream state is the basins hegemon, cooperation is likely to ensue, yet the agreement is often imposed and shaped along the interests of the stronger party. Implied in both scenarios is that the otherwise weaker riparian, in aggregate power terms, is not in a position to achieve its aims and satisfy its needs in an optimal fashion. Its capabilities are inferior to those of its adversary. In effect, it has little alternative but to accept the desires of the stronger riparian. By considering a set of international water agreements and hydro-political contexts, this article challenges the realist conception of power in international river basins. Particularly, it demonstrates that otherwise weaker states may influence the hydro-political context and subsequent international agreements. Cooperation, in general, materializes when both states, but particularly the stronger state, realize that benefits can accrue from coordination and joint action. In other words, to harness the river in an efficient manner, cooperation must ensue and the downstream states participation is important. Even when the benefits to cooperation are not clear, i.e. when the upstream riparian does not foresee immediate economic incentives to cooperation, coordination may still be attained through the manipulation of incentives (or strategic interaction).

Water, Security, Conflict, and Cooperation

Abstract: Hydropolitics, the politics of water, has increasing relevance to national and international security in general and to the field of security studies in particular. The relationship between environmental threats and security poses unforeseen challenges for academics and practitioners. Understanding how nations engage in conflict and cooperation over water is related to understanding the relationship between hydropolitics and security. Therefore, hydropolitics should be considered within the definition of security and within the field of security studies. The manner in which states conduct their hydropolitics with one another can be analyzed through particular theoretical frameworks associated with the field of international relations.

Negotiations and International Relations: A Framework for Hydropolitics

Hydropolitics is a relatively new addition to the field of international security and negotiation studies. This article analyzes water, conflict and cooperation in general terms and then examines the case studies presented in this issue within the context of international relations and negotiation studies. In so doing, the article offers a framework in which to consider hydropolitics. This framework supports a process-oriented approach that emphasizes the international context, the regional context and its politics, pertinent intervening variables and the interactions among the parties within their respective negotiations. It demonstrates the necessity of such an integrated approach when analyzing hydropolitical relations among states.

The Politics of Unilateral Environmentalism: Cooperation and Conflict over Water Management along the Israeli-Palestinian Border

The establishment of international environmental institutions is often predicated on the assumption that cooperation is politically feasible and that regime formation is viable. However, the provision of many environmental services remains vulnerable to asymmetries in interests that impede both cooperation and adaptation. We examine governance structures that internalize externalities under asymmetrical conditions aggravated by abrupt and/or significant changes in political circumstances (in this context, the eruption of political violence which, in this article, we refer to as political variability). We analyze the change over time in Israels strategies for stream and river rehabilitation undertaken as a response to continued runoff of wastewater from Palestinian territories. We find that abrupt political changes that negatively affect relations among the parties undermine the foundations for cooperative solutions. In the Israeli-Palestinian case, Israel has responded by adopting a position of unilateral environmentalism. Such a non-cooperative policy was deemed the best possible option for addressing the transboundary pollution problems, in stark contrast to the model of cooperation that underlies most IEAs. Yet, we find that while unilateral environmentalism may safeguard a countrys immediate political and environmental interests, it also entails various risks in the medium and long term.

The Geographical Dimensions of Hydro-politics: International Freshwater in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia

A U.S.-based political scientist specializing in the complexities of international freshwater basins considers the role of two fundamental factors (geography and relative power) in the study of hydro-politics. Conventional analyses claim that in asymmetric contexts the more powerful state (in relative power terms) is able to dictate the status quo. Arguing, however, that such traditional (and even some critical) analyses tend to downplay the importance of geography, the author investigates how a states physical position along a river may provide an otherwise weaker riparian state the means to challenge the status quo. The paper considers three cases (Tigris-Euphrates, Nile, and Aral Sea basins) with lessons for the study of power in hydro-politics.

Scarperation: An Empirical Inquiry into the Role of Scarcity in Fostering Cooperation Between International River Riparians

The environment and security literature has argued that freshwater scarcity often leads to inter-state conflict, and possibly acute violence. The contention, however, ignores the long history of hydro-political cooperation exemplified by hundreds of documented agreements. Building on a theory that considers the relationship between scarcity and hydro-political cooperation, this paper empirically investigates why treaties are negotiated for some rivers and between some riparians, and not others. The paper suggests that long-term water scarcity has a significant influence on levels of cooperation. Additional variables considered include trade, level of governance among the riparian states, and the geography of the river. Findings confirm that cooperation and scarcity embody a concave (inverted U curve) relationship. Governance has a positive impact on cooperation. In addition, riparians may either arrange the use of their scarce water resources via a treaty or trade (and indirectly exchange [virtual]water). Scarcity, governance, and trade were found to be most salient in explaining levels of cooperation while geography is significant in some of the estimates.

Protests by the young and digitally restless: the means, motives, and opportunities of anti-government demonstrations

Inspired by the recent wave of global protests, this paper seeks to empirically investigate the role and interaction of a burgeoning young population and the penetration of information and communications technology (ICT) in explaining the onset and diffusion of anti-government demonstrations. Employing a cross-national global analysis between the years 1995 and 2011, we find that youth bulges and ICT affect protest activities in a more complicated and nuanced manner than the conventional wisdom suggests. The proliferation of anti-government protests is multiplicatively heightened when the enhanced technological means of protest are fused with the structural and opportunity-based conditions often witnessed in countries with large youth bulges. In contrast, we do not find that either of our variables of interest affects the probability of the outbreak of protests, which is rather explained by more contextual factors. A nuance in our results pertaining to the prevalence of protests suggests that it is the proliferation of technology that is more important than demographic factors. This suggests that those communication mediums, more likely to be used by younger generations, have worked to successfully amplify calls for mobilization even when those cohorts are otherwise smaller in size.