Shlomo Noy

The dynamics of patient visits to a public hospital ED: A statistical model

Using a public hospitals computerized database, we formulated a statistical model to explain emergency department (ED) patient volume for better staffing and resource allocation. All patients visiting the ED over a 3-year period were included in this retrospective study. Each observation described the total daily number of referrals and was defined by the following variables: day of the week, month of the year, holiday/ weekday, relative order in a 3-year sequence, and number of visits to the ED on that day. The statistical method used to build the model was analysis of covariance. Periodicity in average number of daily visits existed for each of the seasonal factors that were examined, repeating every year during the study period. Based on a graphic analysis, the model was defined and explained 65% of the variance during the 3-year study, with a relatively low standard deviation of error. A statistically significant correlation existed between time-related factors and the number of visits to the ED. This statistical model may prove to be of value for planning emergency services, which operate under stressful, unpredictable situations.

Clock drawing task, mini-mental state examination and cognitive-functional independence measure: relation to functional outcome of stroke patients

The use of reliable and valid brief cognitive screening instrument for selecting the appropriate candidates for stroke rehabilitation is crucial. Clinicians often face the question which test should be preferred, that will best correlate with functional outcome. The objective of this study was to compare the clock drawing task with other cognitive tests used for the evaluation of discharge functional outcome in elderly stroke patients. We conducted a retrospective chart study including 151 consecutive patients, admitted for inpatient comprehensive rehabilitation following acute stroke. The clock drawing task (CDT), mini-mental state examination (MMSE) and the cognitive-functional independence measure (cognFIM) were used to assess the cognitive status. Functional status outcome was evaluated by the functional independence measure (FIM), using absolute and relative parameters of efficacy and efficiency. Correlation coefficients (Pearson correlation) between the three cognitive tests resulted in r-values ranging from 0.51 to 0.59 (P<0.001). All three tests correlated significantly with motor outcomes. MMSE did not confer additive value to CDT. It is concluded that CDT is similar to mini-mental and both are somewhat better than cognFIM with respect to the evaluation of functional status outcome following stroke. The correlations between the tests as well as the simplicity of administration favor the use of either CDT or MMSE in the initial assessment of elderly stroke patients.

Comments on risk for schizophrenia

Recent developments have significantly furthered understanding of genetic and environmental factors affecting risk for schizophrenia. Environmental effects, such as immigration, living in a city, and substance abuse have been found to be associated with later schizophrenia. Although the highest risk for schizophrenia is still having a monozygotic twin with schizophrenia (50%), the candidate genes claimed to be associated to date only yield a very small excess risk and all of these effects (environmental and genetics) increase the risk for schizophrenia by only 2-3 fold. Thus, given the low prevalence of the disorder in the general population (0.5-1%), they are not practical in predicting future illness. One possible strategy to make the currently known risk factors for schizophrenia more useful clinically is based on findings indicating that many of the genetic and environmental risks cited above are not specific for schizophrenia, but increase risk for psychopathology in general. As up to 50% of the general population will be affected during their lifetime by a condition defined in DSM IV as psychopathology, due to this much higher base rate, factors increasing risk by 2-3 fold might become clinically relevant.

A Nation-Wide Study on the Percentage of Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder Patients Who Earn Minimum Wage or Above

OBJECTIVE Although it is undisputable that patients with severe mental illness have impaired ability to work, the extent of this is unclear. This is a nation-wide, cross-sectional survey of patients who have been hospitalized with severe mental illness earning minimum wage or above. METHOD Data from the Israeli Psychiatric Hospitalization Case Registry were linked with nation-wide data from the National Insurance Institute (the equivalent of US Social Security) on personal income. Hospitalization data were obtained on all consecutive admissions to any psychiatric hospital in the country between 1990-2008 with a diagnosis of schizophrenia, other nonaffective psychotic disorders, or bipolar disorder (N = 35 673). Earning minimum wage or more was defined as earning at least 1000 USD/month, which was equivalent to minimum wage in Israel in December 2010. RESULTS The percentages of patients with only 1 admission who were earning minimum wage or above in December 2010 were as follows: 10.6% of patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia; 21.6% of patients with a diagnosis of nonaffective psychotic disorders; and 24.2% of patients with bipolar disorder. The percentages of patients with multiple admissions who were earning minimum wage or above were as follows: 5.8% of patients with schizophrenia; 11.2% of patients with nonaffective psychotic disorders; and 19.9% of patients with bipolar disorder. CONCLUSIONS Despite potential confounders, the results indicate that patients with schizophrenia, nonaffective psychotic disorders, or bipolar disorder have a poor employment outcome, even if they have only been admitted once. These results emphasize the importance of improving interventions to re-integrate these individuals into the work force.

Israeli ED experience during the Gulf War

The experience in an emergency department (ED) during the Gulf War in treating casualties referred to the ED soon after each missile attack is reported. Data were gathered within an 8-hour period of each nationwide alert on all patients who presented to the ED with injuries or complaints directly related to the missile attacks of the Tel Aviv area. One hundred three patients presented with symptoms directly related to the missile attacks. Of 103, 70 suffered from acute psychological reaction, 19 from false autoinjection of atropine, and nine from physical injuries from the explosion. Of the remainder, four had mild symptoms of smoke inhalation, and one had intercurrent myocardial infarction. The missile attacks resulted in a relatively small number of serious injuries. Most of the patients who presented to the ED soon after the missile attacks suffered from either anxiety reaction or false atropin injection.

Refractive errors and schizophrenia

BACKGROUND Refractive errors (myopia, hyperopia and amblyopia), like schizophrenia, have a strong genetic cause, and dopamine has been proposed as a potential mediator in their pathophysiology. The present study explored the association between refractive errors in adolescence and schizophrenia, and the potential familiality of this association. METHODS The Israeli Draft Board carries a mandatory standardized visual accuracy assessment. 678,674 males consecutively assessed by the Draft Board and found to be psychiatrically healthy at age 17 were followed for psychiatric hospitalization with schizophrenia using the Israeli National Psychiatric Hospitalization Case Registry. Sib-ships were also identified within the cohort. RESULTS There was a negative association between refractive errors and later hospitalization for schizophrenia. Future male schizophrenia patients were two times less likely to have refractive errors compared with never-hospitalized individuals, controlling for intelligence, years of education and socioeconomic status [adjusted Hazard Ratio=.55; 95% confidence interval .35-.85]. The non-schizophrenic male siblings of schizophrenia patients also had lower prevalence of refractive errors compared to never-hospitalized individuals. CONCLUSIONS Presence of refractive errors in adolescence is related to lower risk for schizophrenia. The familiality of this association suggests that refractive errors may be associated with the genetic liability to schizophrenia.