Shoichi Ito

Rice in Asia: Is It Becoming an Inferior Good?

Empirical results using time-series and cross-sectional data indicate that rice in Asia is becoming an inferior good. Income elasticities declined and in some cases became negative between 1961 and 1985 in most of the fourteen Asian countries studied. Accordingly, domestic demand for rice in these countries is not likely to grow as rapidly as it has in the past. As a consequence, there is a potential for excess supplies of rice to develop in Asia, putting downward pressure on rice prices. While governments in Asian countries may need to adjust their rice policies in the future, world rice suppliers may need to develop new markets for rice.

An econometric analysis of rice consumption in the People's Republic of China

Rice is the most important staple food in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). In many Asian countries rice appears to have become an inferior good, with income increases leading to declines in per capita consumption as other food products are substituted for rice. In this study, human rice consumption is analyzed with a model that allows income elasticities to vary with income levels. An additional equation accounting for rice disappearance as seed, livestock feed, industrial uses and exports is also estimated. The results of the analysis indicate that rice has become an inferior good in China and per capita consumption is likely to decline in the future. Population growth and the growing use of rice for other purposes means that total rice disappearance will continue to increase although at a rate that is slower than has historically been the case. The predicted changes in rice consumption will create pressures to adjust production and trade patterns for rice as well as other agricultural products.

Implications of the minimum access rice import on supply and demand balance of rice in Japan

The recent development of rice policies in Japan are summarized. The impact of the minimum access (MA) import on the supply and demand balance of rice, and the rice diversion areas in the future is also predicted.

Modeling international trade flows and market shares for agricultural commodities: a modified Armington procedure for rice

The Armington procedure (AP) has become increasingly popular in agricultural trade analyses. However, some arguments have arisen concerning the relevance of using the procedure for such analyses. This study examines the assumptions commonly made when using the Armington procedure and suggests modifications for agricultural trade analyses. Results from models utilizing rice-trade data suggest that the assumptions of the single constant elasticity, in particular, may not be appropriate for analyzing agricultural trade. These results also suggest that, with proper modifications, the AP can be applied to agricultural trade. Further, results of a modified Armington procedure indicate that trade in rice exports is highly competitive and that changes in market shares of individual exporters are not independent of changes in budget expenditure allocated to imports.

Modeling Supply Response with Implicit Revenue Functions: A Policy-Switching Procedure for Rice

An econometric method of estimating implicit revenue with a policy switching mechanism is proposed for supply response analysis. The model develops important linkages between farm program instruments and commodity market equilibrium and allows evaluation of supply response decisions under conditions of major policy shifts. The econometric procedure developed here is applied to the U.S. rice sector to determine program compliance/noncompliance decisions under three alternative rice program periods. A change in farm prices was found to affect significantly producers net returns and participation rate. Results indicate price impacts on acreage planted are inelastic for program participants but elastic for nonparticipants.

Rice in Asia: Is It Becoming an Inferior Good? Reply

Huang, David, and Duff raise a number of issues concerning data and method. In particular, they argue for the following procedures: (a) use of private consumption expenditures expressed in a common currency rather than per capita gross domestic product (GDP) expressed in national currencies, (b) use of domestic price data instead of world price data, and (c) the use of prior information in specifying the ridge regression. Using these procedures, they reestimate our model and obtain results that differ from