Shonali Pachauri

An analysis of cross-sectional variations in total household energy requirements in India using micro survey data

Abstract Using micro level household survey data from India, we analyse the variation in the pattern and quantum of household energy requirements, both direct and indirect, and the factors causing such variation. An econometric analysis using household survey data from India for the year 1993–1994 reveals that household socio-economic, demographic, geographic, family and dwelling attributes influence the total household energy requirements. There are also large variations in the pattern of energy requirements across households belonging to different expenditure classes. Results from the econometric estimation show that total household expenditure or income level is the most important explanatory variable causing variation in energy requirements across households. In addition, the size of the household dwelling and the age of the head of the household are related to higher household energy requirements. In contrast, the number of members in the household and literacy of the head are associated with lower household energy requirements.

Elasticities of electricity demand in urban Indian households

Energy demand, and in particular electricity demand in India has been growing at a very rapid rate over the last decade. Given, current trends in population growth, industrialisation, urbanisation, modernisation and income growth, electricity consumption is expected to increase substantially in the coming decades as well. Tariff reforms could play a potentially important role as a demand side management tool in India. However, the effects of any price revisions on consumption will depend on the price elasticity of demand for electricity. In the past, electricity demand studies for India published in international journals have been based on aggregate macro data at the country or sub-national/ state level. In this paper, price and income elasticities of electricity demand in the residential sector of all urban areas of India are estimated for the first time using disaggregate level survey data for over thirty thousand households. Three electricity demand functions have been estimated using monthly data for the following seasons: winter, monsoon and summer. The results show electricity demand is income and price inelastic in all three seasons, and that household, demographic and geographical variables are important in determining electricity demand, something that is not possible to determine using aggregate macro models alone.

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions

Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energy–economic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16–29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.

Direct and indirect energy requirements of households in India

Abstract This study is based on the 115 sector classification input–output tables for India for the years 1983–84, 1989–90 and 1993–94. Calculated total primary energy intensities along with private final consumption expenditures are used as a basis for determining the indirect energy requirements of Indian households. Results reveal that total household energy consumption is about evenly divided between direct and indirect energy and together comprises 75% of the total energy consumption of India. Most of household energy consumed directly is still non-commercial and the consumption of food is responsible for about half the indirect energy consumption. Household energy requirements have increased significantly, both in total and per capita terms over this time period. The commercial component of direct household energy consumption and the indirect energy requirements have increased continuously. The main drivers of this increase have been (1) the growing expenditures per capita, (2) population and (3) increasing energy intensity in the food and agricultural sectors.

Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development

Chapter 17 explores possible transformational pathways of the future global energy system with the overarching aim of assessing the technological feasibility as well as the economic implications of meeting a range of sustainability objectives simultaneously. As such, it aims at the integration across objectives, and thus goes beyond earlier assessments of the future energy system that have mostly focused on either specific topics or single objectives.

Fuel choices in urban Indian households

This paper applies an ordered discrete choice framework to model fuel choices and patterns of cooking fuel use in urban Indian households. The choices considered are for three main cooking fuels: firewood, kerosene, and LPG (liquid petroleum gas). The models, estimated using a large microeconomic dataset, show a reasonably good performance in the prediction of households’ primary and secondary fuel choices. This suggests that ordered models can be used to analyze multiple fuel use patterns in the Indian context. The results show that lack of sufficient income is one of the main factors that retard households from using cleaner fuels, which usually also require the purchase of relatively expensive equipments. The results also indicate that households are sensitive to LPG prices. In addition to income and price, several socio-demographic factors such as education and sex of the head of the household are also found to be important in determining household fuel choice.

Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions

Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits.

Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030

A lack of access to modern energy impacts health and welfare and impedes development for billions of people. Growing concern about these impacts has mobilized the international community to set new targets for universal modern energy access. However, analyses exploring pathways to achieve these targets and quantifying the potential costs and benefits are limited. Here, we use two modelling frameworks to analyse investments and consequences of achieving total rural electrification and universal access to clean-combusting cooking fuels and stoves by 2030. Our analysis indicates that these targets can be achieved with additional investment of US

Enhancing the Relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Research

200565‐86 billion per year until 2030 combined with dedicated policies. Only a combination of policies that lowers costs for modern cooking fuels and stoves, along with more rapid electrification, can enable the realization of these goals. Our results demonstrate the critical importance of accounting for varying demands and affordability across heterogeneous household groups in both analysis and policy setting. While the investments required are significant, improved access to modern cooking fuels alone can avert between 0.6 and 1.8 million premature deaths annually in 2030 and enhance wellbeing substantially.

Analyzing cooking fuel and stove choices in China till 2030

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.