Shu-Fen Liao

Decreasing Rate of Biliary Atresia in Taiwan: A Survey, 2004–2009

OBJECTIVES: The pathogenesis of biliary atresia (BA) is unclear, but epidemiological studies may help to elucidate possible causes. The goals of this study were to identify BA incidence changes in Taiwan in 2004–2009 and to survey the factors that might influence incidence changes to elucidate the possible causes of BA. METHODS: A Taiwan national registry system for BA has been established since 2004. By using data from the national registry system for BA, we identified BA incidence changes in 2004–2009. We also evaluated the correlations between BA incidences and estimated rotavirus vaccine coverage rates and between BA incidences and the gross domestic product. RESULTS: A total of 185 patients with BA were identified in 2004–2009 in Taiwan, whereas the number of live births was 1 221 189. Compared with the incidence of BA in 2004–2006 (1.79 cases per 10 000 live births), the incidence of BA in 2007–2009 (1.23 cases per 10 000 live births) was decreased significantly (P = .01). BA incidences were negatively correlated with the gross domestic product (P = .02) and marginally negatively correlated with rotavirus vaccine coverage rates (P = .07). CONCLUSIONS: A significant decrease in BA incidence in Taiwan since 2007 has been noted and may be related to improvements in the general socioeconomic status and the popularity of rotavirus vaccination. Although more evidence is needed to establish a direct correlation, this phenomenon may shed light on possible causes of and preventive interventions for BA.

Fifteen-Year Population Attributable Fractions and Causal Pies of Risk Factors for Newly Developed Hepatocellular Carcinomas in 11,801 Men in Taiwan

Development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a multi-factorial process. Chronic infections with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) are important risk factors of HCC. Host factors, such as alcohol drinking, may also play a role. This study aims to provide a synthesis view on the development of HCC by examining multiple risk factors jointly and collectively. Causal-pie modeling technique was applied to analyze a cohort of 11,801 male residents (followed up for 15 years) in Taiwan, during which a total of 298 incident HCC cases were ascertained. The rate ratios adjusted by age were further modeled by an additive Poisson regression. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) and causal-pie weights (CPWs) were calculated. A PAF indicates the magnitude of case-load reduction under a particular intervention scenario, whereas a CPW for a particular class of causal pies represents the proportion of HCC cases attributable to that class. Using PAF we observed a chance to reduce around 60% HCC risk moving from no HBV-related intervention to the total elimination of the virus. An additional ∼15% (or ∼5%) reduction can be expected, if the HBV-related intervention is coupled with an HCV-related intervention (or an anti-drinking campaign). Eight classes of causal pies were found to be significant, including four dose-response classes of HBV (total CPW=52.7%), one independent-effect class of HCV (CPW=14.4%), one HBV-alcohol interaction class (CPW=4.2%), one HBV-HCV interaction class (CPW=1.7%), and one all-unknown class (CPW=27.0%). Causal-pie modeling for HCC helps clarify the relative importance of each viral and host factor, as well as their interactions.

Soft Tissue Infections Related to Peripheral Intravenous Catheters in Hospitalised Patients: A Case-Control Study

Peripheral intravenous (i.v.) catheter-related soft tissue infections begin with local skin and soft tissue inflammation, which can progress to cellulitis or even tissue necrosis requiring aggressive surgical treatment. We conducted a matched case-control study to investigate risk factors for peripheral i.v. catheter-related soft tissue infections in hospitalised patients. We retrospectively identified 46 cases that occurred during 2006-2008 in two teaching hospitals. Each case was randomly matched with four control subjects from the same ward and on the same day that the soft tissue infections arose. Risk factors were analysed using conditional logistic regression. Multiple regression analysis identified the following independent risk factors: >24h of continuous i.v. fluid infusion (odds ratio: 5.2, P=0.001), insertion site in lower extremity (8.5, P=0.003), use of an infusion pump (4.6, P=0.023), and hospitalisation due to a neurological or neurosurgical condition (3.6, P=0.018). The population-attributable fractions (the percentage of cases in the study population that could be prevented if the exposure were removed) were 40%, 19%, 24% and 25%, respectively. Minimising unnecessarily prolonged i.v. fluid infusion and avoidance of insertion in the lower extremity may significantly reduce the incidence of peripheral i.v. catheter-related soft tissue infection in the study hospitals.

A cross-ethnic comparison on incidence of suicide

BACKGROUND Suicide rates vary widely across nations and ethnic groups. This study aims to explore potential factors contributing to inter-ethnic differences in suicide rates. METHOD Study subjects came from a case-control psychological autopsy study conducted in Taiwan, including 116 consecutive suicides from two aboriginal groups and Taiwanese Han; 113 of them each matched with two living controls. Gender-, age- and method-specific suicide rates, population attributable fraction (PAF) of suicide for five major risk factors, help-seeking before suicide and emergency medical aid after suicide were compared between the three ethnic groups. RESULTS One aboriginal group (the Atayal) had significantly higher adjusted rate ratios (RR) of suicide than the other aboriginal group (the Ami) [RR 0.20, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.12-0.34] and the Han (RR 0.26, 95% CI 0.16-0.40). Such differences can be explained by higher PAFs of suicide for three major risk factors (substance dependence, PAF 47.6%, 95% CI 25.5-64.2; emotionally unstable personality disorder, PAF 52.7%, 95% CI 32.8-69.0; family history of suicidal behaviour, PAF 43.5%, 95% CI 23.2-60.2) in this group than in the other two groups. This higher suicide rate was substantially reduced from 68.2/100 000 per year to 9.1/100 000 per year, comparable with the other two groups, after stepwise removal of the effects of these three risk factors. Suicide rates by self-poisoning were also significantly higher in this group than in the other two groups. CONCLUSIONS Higher rates of specific risk factors and use of highly lethal pesticides for suicide contributed to the higher suicide rate in one ethnic group in Taiwan. These findings have implications for developing ethnicity-relevant suicide prevention strategies.

An evaluation of the 25 by 25 goal for premature cardiovascular disease mortality in Taiwan: an age-period-cohort analysis, population attributable fraction and national population-based study

Objectives The aim of the 25 by 25 goal is to reduce mortality from premature non-communicable diseases by 25% before 2025. Studies have evaluated the 25 by 25 goal in many countries, but not in Taiwan. The aim of this study was to estimate the 25 by 25 goal for premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Taiwan. Methods We applied the age-period-cohort model to project the incidence of premature death from cardiovascular disease from 2015 to 2024 and used the population attributable fraction to estimate the contributions of targeted risk factors. The probability of death was used to estimate the percent change. Results The percent change in business-as-usual trend during 2010-2024 was only a 6% (range 1.7-10.7%) lower risk of premature mortality from cardiovascular disease among men. The greatest reduction in the risk of mortality occurred with a 30% reduction in the prevalence of smoking; however, there was only a 14.5% (10.6-18.3%) decrease in percent change and in the corresponding number of men (3706: range 3543-3868) who were prevented from dying. More than a 25% reduction in the percent change of premature cardiovascular disease mortality among women was achieved without control of any risk factor. To reach a 25% reduction in men before 2025, there needs to be a 70% reduction in the prevalence of smoking to reduce mortality by 26.2% (22.9-29.3%). Conclusions Cigarette smoking is the primary target in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Through the stringent control of smoking, the goal of a 25% reduction in premature mortality from cardiovascular disease may be achieved before 2025 in Taiwan.