Shuji Hiramoto

Survival prediction for advanced cancer patients in the real world: A comparison of the Palliative Prognostic Score, Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score, Palliative Prognostic Index and modified Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor model

PURPOSE The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility and accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP score), Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score (D-PaP score), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) and modified Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor model (PiPS model). PATIENTS AND METHODS This multicentre prospective cohort study involved 58 palliative care services, including 19 hospital palliative care teams, 16 palliative care units and 23 home palliative care services, in Japan from September 2012 to April 2014. Analyses were performed involving four patient groups: those treated by palliative care teams, those in palliative care units, those at home and those receiving chemotherapy. RESULTS We recruited 2426 participants, and 2361 patients were finally analysed. Risk groups based on these instruments successfully identified patients with different survival profiles in all groups. The feasibility of PPI and modified PiPS-A was more than 90% in all groups, followed by PaP and D-PaP scores; modified PiPS-B had the lowest feasibility. The accuracy of prognostic scores was ⩾69% in all groups and the difference was within 13%, while c-statistics were significantly lower with the PPI than PaP and D-PaP scores. CONCLUSION The PaP score, D-PaP score, PPI and modified PiPS model provided distinct survival groups for patients in the three palliative care settings and those receiving chemotherapy. The PPI seems to be suitable for routine clinical use for situations where rough estimates of prognosis are sufficient and/or patients do not want invasive procedure. If clinicians can address more items, the modified PiPS-A would be a non-invasive alternative. In cases where blood samples are available or those requiring more accurate prediction, the PaP and D-PaP scores and modified PiPS-B would be more appropriate.

Hematogenous umbilical metastasis from colon cancer treated by palliative single-incision laparoscopic surgery

Sister Mary Josephs nodule (SMJN) is a rare umbilical nodule that develops secondary to metastatic cancer. Primary malignancies are located in the abdomen or pelvis. Patients with SMJN have a poor prognosis. An 83-year-old woman presented to our hospital with a 1-month history of a rapidly enlarging umbilical mass. Endoscopic findings revealed advanced transverse colon cancer. computer tomography and fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography revealed tumors of the transverse colon, umbilicus, right inguinal lymph nodes, and left lung. The feeding arteries and drainage veins for the SMJN were the inferior epigastric vessels. Imaging findings of the left lung tumor allowed for identification of the primary lung cancer, and a diagnosis of advanced transverse colon cancer with SMJN and primary lung cancer was made. The patient underwent local resection of the SMNJ and subsequent single-site laparoscopic surgery involving right hemicolectomy and paracolic lymph node dissection. Intra-abdominal dissemination to the mesocolon was confirmed during surgery. Histopathologically, the transverse colon cancer was confirmed to be moderately differentiated tubular adenocarcinoma. We suspect that SMJN may occur via a hematogenous pathway. Although chemotherapy for colon cancer and thoracoscopic surgery for the primary lung cancer were scheduled, the patient and her family desired home hospice. Seven months after surgery, she died of rapidly growing lung cancer.

Adding items that assess changes in activities of daily living does not improve the predictive accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic Index

Background: Changes in activities of daily living in cancer patients may predict their survival. The Palliative Prognostic Index is a useful tool to evaluate cancer patients, and adding an item about activities of daily living changes might improve its predictive value. Aim: To clarify whether adding an item about activities of daily living changes improves the accuracy of Palliative Prognostic Index. Design: Multicenter prospective cohort study. Setting: A total of 58 palliative care services in Japan. Participants: Patients aged >20 years diagnosed with locally extensive or metastatic cancer (including hematological neoplasms) who had been admitted to palliative care units, were receiving care by hospital-based palliative care teams, or were receiving home-based palliative care. Palliative care physicians recorded clinical variables at the first assessment and followed up patients 6 months later. Results: A total of 2425 subjects were recruited and 2343 of these had analyzable data. The C-statistic of the original Palliative Prognostic Index was 0.801, and those of modified Palliative Prognostic Indices ranged from 0.793 to 0.805 at 3 weeks. For 6-week survival predictions, the C-statistic of the original Palliative Prognostic Index was 0.802, and those of modified Palliative Prognostic Indices ranged from 0.791 to 0.799. The weighted kappa of the original Palliative Prognostic Index was 0.510, and those of modified Palliative Prognostic Indices ranged from 0.484 to 0.508. Conclusion: Adding items about activities of daily living changes to the Palliative Prognostic Index did not improve prognostic value in advanced cancer patients.

Development and validation of a set of six adaptable prognosis prediction (SAP) models based on time-series real-world big data analysis for patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy: A multicenter case crossover study

Background We aimed to develop an adaptable prognosis prediction model that could be applied at any time point during the treatment course for patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy, by applying time-series real-world big data. Methods Between April 2004 and September 2014, 4,997 patients with cancer who had received systemic chemotherapy were registered in a prospective cohort database at the Kyoto University Hospital. Of these, 2,693 patients with a death record were eligible for inclusion and divided into training (n = 1,341) and test (n = 1,352) cohorts. In total, 3,471,521 laboratory data at 115,738 time points, representing 40 laboratory items [e.g., white blood cell counts and albumin (Alb) levels] that were monitored for 1 year before the death event were applied for constructing prognosis prediction models. All possible prediction models comprising three different items from 40 laboratory items (40C3 = 9,880) were generated in the training cohort, and the model selection was performed in the test cohort. The fitness of the selected models was externally validated in the validation cohort from three independent settings. Results A prognosis prediction model utilizing Alb, lactate dehydrogenase, and neutrophils was selected based on a strong ability to predict death events within 1–6 months and a set of six prediction models corresponding to 1,2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 months was developed. The area under the curve (AUC) ranged from 0.852 for the 1 month model to 0.713 for the 6 month model. External validation supported the performance of these models. Conclusion By applying time-series real-world big data, we successfully developed a set of six adaptable prognosis prediction models for patients with cancer receiving chemotherapy.

A retrospective analysis of 5-fluorouracil plus cisplatin as first-line chemotherapy in patients with metastatic or recurrent esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

204 Background: Patients with metastatic or recurrent esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have a poor prognosis. For decades, 5-fluorouracil /Cisplatin (FP) have been mostly used for these patients as first line chemotherapy. But there were few reports which reveal the reality containing the efficacy of FP regimen for ESCC. We conduct this retrospective study to reveal the efficacy and prognostic factors of the patients treated with FP as first line chemotherapy for ESCC. Methods: Patients with metastatic or recurrent ESCC after esophagectomy were enrolled. FP comprised of CDDP at a dose of 80mg/m2 on day1, and 5-FU at a dose of 800mg/m2given by continuous on days 1-5 every 4 weeks. Cox-proportional hazard model was used for multivariate analysis to evaluate prognostic factors. Results: Between April 2001 and March 2012 in the National Cancer Center Hospital, data of 187 patients were collected by medical records. Characteristics of 187 patients were as follows; the median age (range) 62 (34-84); (m...