Shunsuke Tei

Tree-ring analysis and modeling approaches yield contrary response of circumboreal forest productivity to climate change

Circumboreal forest ecosystems are exposed to a larger magnitude of warming in comparison with the global average, as a result of warming-induced environmental changes. However, it is not clear how tree growth in these ecosystems responds to these changes. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of forest productivity to climate change using ring width indices (RWI) from a tree-ring width dataset accessed from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank and gridded climate datasets from the Climate Research Unit. A negative relationship of RWI with summer temperature and recent reductions in RWI were typically observed in continental dry regions, such as inner Alaska and Canada, southern Europe, and the southern part of eastern Siberia. We then developed a multiple regression model with regional meteorological parameters to predict RWI, and then applied to these models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5 scenario). The projections showed a spatial variation and future continuous reduction in tree growth in those continental dry regions. The spatial variation, however, could not be reproduced by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). The DGVM projected a generally positive trend in future tree growth all over the circumboreal region. These results indicate that DGVMs may overestimate future wood net primary productivity (NPP) in continental dry regions such as these; this seems to be common feature of current DGVMs. DGVMs should be able to express the negative effect of warming on tree growth, so that they simulate the observed recent reduction in tree growth in continental dry regions.

8 million phenological and sky images from 29 ecosystems from the Arctic to the tropics: the Phenological Eyes Network

We report long-term continuous phenological and sky images taken by time-lapse cameras through the Phenological Eyes Network (http://www.pheno-eye.org. Accessed 29 May 2018) in various ecosystems from the Arctic to the tropics. Phenological images are useful in recording the year-to-year variability in the timing of flowering, leaf-flush, leaf-coloring, and leaf-fall and detecting the characteristics of phenological patterns and timing sensitivity among species and ecosystems. They can also help interpret variations in carbon, water, and heat cycling in terrestrial ecosystems, and be used to obtain ground-truth data for the validation of satellite-observed products. Sky images are useful in continuously recording atmospheric conditions and obtaining ground-truth data for the validation of cloud contamination and atmospheric noise present in satellite remote-sensing data. We have taken sky, forest canopy, forest floor, and shoot images of a range of tree species and landscapes, using time-lapse cameras installed on forest floors, towers, and rooftops. In total, 84 time-lapse cameras at 29 sites have taken 8 million images since 1999. Our images provide (1) long-term, continuous detailed records of plant phenology that are more quantitative than in situ visual phenological observations of index trees; (2) basic information to explain the responsiveness, vulnerability, and resilience of ecosystem canopies and their functions and services to changes in climate; and (3) ground-truthing for the validation of satellite remote-sensing observations.

Radial Growth and Physiological Response of Coniferous Trees to Arctic Amplification

We describe the physiological responses of boreal conifers to climate change for the past 112 years using ring width and carbon isotope ratios (δ13C) chronologies at six forest sites in northern Eurasia and Canada. Responses differed among regions, depending on their climatic and/or geographic characteristics. Tree radial growth decreased over the past 52 years in central eastern Siberia with the higher rate of summer temperature increase than other regions, as indicated by the negative correlation between radial growth and summer temperature, but increased in northern Europe and Canada. Changes in tree-ring δ13C indicated that recent climatic conditions have induced stronger drought stress for trees from central eastern Siberia than for those from other regions. The observed tree growth trends were compared to those simulated using a dynamic global vegetation model. Although the modeled annual net primary production (NPP) for trees generally exhibited similar decadal variation to radial growth, simulations did not show a recent decrease in tree growth, even in central eastern Siberia. This was probably due to an overestimation of the sensitivity of modeled tree NPP to precipitation. Our results suggest that the tree NPP forecasted under the expected future increases in temperature and average precipitation might be overestimated, especially in severely dry regions such as central eastern Siberia.