Shushen Zhang

Establishment of Combining Grey Model with Partial Least Squares Regression for City Energy Consumption Forecasting

In this paper, a forecasting method, combining grey model (GM) with partial least squares regression (PLS), was applied to forecasting city terminal energy consumption for the first time. PLS is of the advantage of overcoming the correlative affect among independent variables, distinguishing the system signal from noises, and explaining dependent variables well; GM (1, 1) model is able to overcome the non-linear interference of parameters. The more accurate prediction could be achieved by the combination of these two methods to forecast the complicated and non-linear energy consumption system. The single model and combined model based on Dalian’s historical data were established, verified and compared. The result showed that relative err from the combined method was 2.93%, less than that from any method alone. From the prediction results by the combined method including seven variables, the city terminal energy consumption of Dalian were 18.76 Mtce, 29.85 Mtce, and 46.90 Mtce in 2010, 2015 and 2020, respectively, providing reference frame for energy planning and decision-making. Keywords-GM (1, 1) model; partial least squares regression; combined forecast; terminal energy consumption

A Review of Material Flow Analysis

Material flow analysis (MFA) has been a hot topic on the research of circular economy and sustainable development of the environment - economic systems in recent years. This paper briefly reviews the development process of MFA. A detailed summary of the recent progress of MFA has been given in three forms, which respectively for three research levels (the national level, the regional level and the industrial level). The fundamental methodology of MFA has been introduced. And its development has been summarized in a list. In the end, the research prospects have been concluded and discussed.

Exergy Analysis of Iron and Steel Eco-Industrial Systems

The iron and steel production industry entails high resource and energy consumption and generates a serious amount of waste and pollution. The need to conserve energy and reduce emissions underlines the importance of correctly and comprehensively evaluating the iron and steel industrial systems. Properly evaluating the utilization levels of resources and energy is one of the important tasks. In this publication I introduce a thermodynamic exergy analysis method to analyze and evaluate iron and steel industrial systems. The utilization levels of resources and energy are evaluated by comparing the result of the exergy calculation for the traditional production chain and for the material and energy recycling eco-industrial chain. The systemic problems are thus revealed and measures for improvement are proposed, providing a theoretical basis for planning and construction of iron and steel eco-industrial parks.

SWOT Analysis and Strategic Choice of Eco-City Construction in Dalian

The eco-city construct is a very important approach for the urban sustainable development. As a result, the government of Dalian puts forward a new object of eco-city construction in 2009. In this paper, based on SWOT analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of Dalian, a better eco-city construction mode is proposed, which is tourism, political and economic integrated eco-city construction mode with a greater impact and control in the Bohai Sea and the Northeast Asian region.

Aspen Plus Based Study on the Oxygen Consumption of Alternative Fuels in the Cement Calciner Combustion Process

The cement industry is a typical high energy industry. The cement pre-calcining kiln process needs amounts of fuels to combust which can provide heat for the raw material decomposition and the clinker calcination. Utilizations of alternative fuels in the cement kiln process is an efficacious way to reduce the energy consumption of the cement industry, and the study on the effect of alternative fuels on other technological parameters has become an important subject in the cement technology research area. A new research method for the cement calciner based on the process simulation software Aspen Plus is proposed in this paper, and used to analyze the amount of the combustion air in calciner combustion processes when different alternative fuels (Reference Condition: only coal as fuel; Condition 1: only petcoke as fuel; Condition 2: 50 % coal and 50 % petcoke as fuels; Condition 3: 50 % coal and 50 % MBM as fuels; Condition 4: 50 % petcoke and 50 % MBM as fuels) are employed in the calciner. The results show that compared with the Reference Condition, extra 41.5 %, 14.6 % and 8.5 % of the combustion air is needed in Condition 1, 2 and 4, whereas Condition 3 needs less combustion air. The result of this paper can be used to instruct to determine the amount of the tertiary air in different alternative fuel conditions of the calciner.

Evaluation of Industrial Ecosystem Stability Based on Emergy and Exergy Analysis

Industrial ecosystems as an important practice of sustainable development are rapidly advancing at home and abroad, but the evaluation of industrial ecosystem stability is not perfect. Emergy and exergy analysis as complementary methods are used to evaluate the level of the sustainable development of the system. This paper attempts to combine the characteristics of emergy and exergy analysis, and to establish the ratio of emergy input and exergy output index which is called system transformity in order to evaluate the stability of two thermal power plants.

Sources and Influence Approaches Analysis of Cumulative Ecological Impacts in an Offshore Area of Dalian, China

Cumulative impacts of productive enterprises are an increasingly serious problem in coastal areas. By analyzing the industrial structure during the last few decades in Dalian, China, we conclude there are five main sources of cumulative impacts: industrial enterprises, domestic sewage, agriculture, coastal engineering and marine aquaculture. According to the cumulative ecological effect causation diagram of the main sources, six key ecological indicators are selected to examine the cumulative impacts of these activities: marine water quality, sediment quality, organism quality, chlorophyll-a, biological communities and wetlands. Correlation analysis was carried out to explore the primary impact sources corresponding to each indicator in an offshore area of Dalian.

Development of a Classification Index System for Cross-Border Emergent Atmospheric Environment Risk Sources

This study focuses on the effects of pollution incidents on sensitive receptors. A classification index system for cross- border emergent atmospheric environmental risk sources has been developed which considers the environmental factors near the risk source and the potential for cross-border pollution that influence the extent of possible harm from a risk source, and evaluating criteria for indexes have been given. The cross-border atmospheric environment risk sources have been divided into four categories, identified as extreme risk sources, high risk sources, moderate risk sources and low risk sources. An AHP- fuzzy comprehensive evaluation has been used to evaluate the risk grades for two examples, a 30-tonne liquid chlorine storage tank from T Chemical Co. Ltd. and an 8-tonne liquid chlorine storage tank from X Chemistry plant in Dalian City, where the incident considered is an instant explosion.

Risk Factor Analysis of Liquid Ammonia Cross-Border Air Pollution

Research into cross-border air pollution caused by the continuous leakage of liquid ammonia has been carried out based on the standard allowable concentration of short-term exposure to ammonia of 30mg/m 3 and the more strict maximum allowable concentration of harmful substances in residential areas of 0.2mg/m 3 , assuming that the cross-border distances are 5km, 10km, 15km and 20km. The atmospheric stability classes, the range of wind speeds and the time required for the pollution to reach a border were studied for source intensities ranging from 3 to 20kg/s. The results of the study show that the D and E stability classes are the most likely to trigger cross-border pollution events. The range of cross- border wind speeds leading to exceedance of the maximum allowable level narrows as the distance to the boundary increases. Irrespective of the source intensity, the travel time for the pollution to reach the same distance of boundary is similar under the same wind speeds which are in the range of transboundary wind speeds, and the duration of the pollution event is longer with increasing source intensity for the same wind conditions. The pollution arrives faster and the duration of the event becomes shorter with increasing wind speed, for the same source intensity. are many administrative regions, with a number of other countries bordering on our country, so it is necessary to carry out research into cross-border pollution. At the present time, very few studies have been carried out investigating cross- border pollution, and those that have tend to have focused on water pollution rather than air. It appears that there are none that specifically address the issue of air pollution. An analysis of 51 fatalities that resulted from accidents in chemical systems in our country has revealed that the following substances are the most significant in terms of the importance of prioritizing their control (in decreasing order of importance): chlorine, ammonia, liquefied petroleum gas, and vinyl chloride. Note that liquid ammonia appears in second place(1). Considering the extent of the practical application of these dangerous substances, the leakage of liquid ammonia has caused many accidents(2), so liquid ammonia represents a great cross-border risk. Liquid ammonia is selected as the pollutant of interest for the present study into cross-border air pollution. The major pollution accidents are divided into fire, explosion and toxic gas leakages, with the main hazards associated with these being heat radiation, shock wave and poisoning respectively. A preliminary analysis into the extent of the influence of the three hazards indicates that the affected area of the toxic poison leakage is much larger than the area affected by fire thermal radiation or explosion blasts for a given scale of event(3-5). Therefore, when carrying out investigations into trans-boundary air pollution involving liquid ammonia, it is important to consider continuous leakage.