Shushuai Zhu

An economic model of international wood supply, forest stock and forest area change

Abstract Wood supply, the link between roundwood removals and forest resources, is an important component of forest sector models. This paper develops a model of international wood supply within the structure of the spatial equilibrium Global Forest Products Model. The wood supply model determines, for each country, the annual forest harvest, the annual change of forest stock and the annual change of forest area. The results suggest that global forest area would decline by 477 million ha between 1999 and 2030, with the largest decline in Asia and Africa. However, global forest stock would increase by 25 billion m3, with the largest increase in Europe, and North and Central America. Higher global harvests and lower prices were predicted than those predicted in the past with exogenous timber supply assumptions.

Effects of accelerated tariff liberalization on the forest products sector: a global modeling approach

Abstract The objective of this study was to project the effects on the world forest sector of eliminating quickly all import tariffs. The projections were done for two scenarios: (1) progressive tariff reduction according to the current schedule of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; (2) complete elimination of all tariffs within the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries. The projections were obtained with the global forest products model (GFPM), for the years 1998–2010. The model gave market equilibrium projections of quantities produced, consumed, imported and exported for each of 180 countries, and for 14 commodity groups, covering roundwood, sawnwood, wood-based panels, pulp and recycled fibers and paper and paperboard. The model also projected world equilibrium prices. The results showed that, with or without ATL agreement, the world consumption and trade of all forest products would continue to grow along the historical trends, and the world prices of forest products would increase moderately. With the elimination of tariffs in APEC countries, the projected world production and consumption of all products would change little (less than 0.5%). The tariff reduction effects would be larger for trade, and the commodity composition of world trade would shift from raw materials to more processed products. The timber harvest would change in a number of countries, but the net effect at the world scale would be small. While the US consumption and production of forest products would change little, the US would reduce its export of logs and increase exports of most processed products. The US timber harvest was expected to be indistinguishable compared to what it would be in the absence of the Accelerated Tariff Liberalization agreement.

Forest product trade impacts of an invasive species: modeling structure and intervention trade-offs.

Asian gypsy and nun moth introductions into the United States, possibly arriving on imported Siberian coniferous logs, threaten domestic forests and product markets and could have global market consequences. We simulate, using the Global Forest Products Model (a spatial equilibrium model of the world forest sector), the consequences under current policies of a widespread, successful pest invasion, and of plausible trading partner responses to the successful invasion. We find that trade liberalization would have a negligible effect on U.S. imports of Siberian logs and, consequently, on the risk of a pest invasion. But, if it happened, possibly through trade in other commodities, a successful and widespread pest invasion would have large effects on producers and consumers over the period 2002 to 2030.

Model Calibration and Validation

Model calibration refers to the definition of all countries and products, the choice of a base year, the assembly and checking of data for the base year, and the estimation of the various parameters of the global forest products model (GFPM). Validation involves comparing model prediction with actual outcomes in the past and judging the suitability of the model for different purposes. The version of the GFPM described in this chapter deals with 180 individual countries and 14 products. This level of resolution was chosen to facilitate data verification, since most international data are collected at the country level. Calculating projections by country also facilitates review and criticism of the projections, because expert knowledge is more available at the country level than at more aggregate regional or global levels. Making projections for most of the countries in the world instead of for only a few aggregated regions or main countries was required by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The forest products considered in the GFPM correspond to product groups used by the FAO in its statistical work.

Implications of the Russian roundwood export tax for the Russian and global wood products sectors

Abstract Russia is the worlds largest exporter of roundwood, mainly to China, Finland and Japan. The Russian government recently announced an increase in its export tax on softwood roundwood from the present 6.5% of export product value to 80% by January 2009. The effects of this policy on the world forest sector to 2020 were simulated with the Global Forest Products Model. The predicted results were lower Russian roundwood exports and prices, lower global wood supply and higher world roundwood prices. In response, the USA, Germany and New Zealand would increase production and export of roundwood. Major consumers of Russian roundwood would suffer a reduction in production and export of wood products. By 2020 Russian harvests and roundwood exports would be 49 million m3 (19%) and 51 million m3 (50%) lower, respectively. The price of roundwood in Russia would be 16% lower. This would encourage a modest increase in Russian forest product production: 1–3% higher. However, Russian export revenues would be US

Effects of the Free Trade Area of the Americas on Forest Resources

3.4 billion (23%) lower as growth in processed exports would fail to offset reduced roundwood export revenue. Value added in all manufacturing sectors would be US

Domestic and Foreign Consequences of China's Land Tenure Reform on Collective Forests

225 million higher in Russia, while it would be US

Potential economic impact of limiting the international trade of timber as a phytosanitary measure

1.3 billion lower in Finland and US

Assessing the impact of planted forests on the global forest economy

728 million lower in China. Owing to the tax on exports the Russian forest stock would be 1 billion m3 (0.3%) higher in 2020.

Effects of Tariff Liberalization

The effects of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) agreement on the forest sectors and resources of member countries are investigated. A model of wood supply within the spatial partial-equilibrium Global Forest Products Model is developed to link international trade and deforestation. The direct effects of tariff changes and the indirect effects of income changes induced by trade liberalization are considered. The FTAA has a small positive impact on the regions forest resources. Higher harvests of industrial roundwood in most countries are offset by increased afforestation due to the income effect of trade liberalization (captured by the environmental Kuznets curve).