Shyam S. Yadav

Consequences of Predicted Climatic Changes on International Trade in Cool Season Grain Legume Crops

A substantial proportion of the population of the Indian sub-continent depends on cool season grain legumes (in particular, dry pea, chickpea and lentil) as a major component of their diet. From 2001 to 2007, India was the main producer of the major cool season grain legume crops, followed by Canada, China, France and Russia. Although India was the main producer of cool season grain legumes from 2001 to 2007, it was also the main importing country of these crops over the same period, followed by Spain, Egypt, Bangladesh, Belgium, the Netherlands and Pakistan. The main exporter of cool season grain legume crops from 2001 to 2006 was Canada, followed by Australia, France, the USA and Turkey. An important feature of the data is that the major exporting countries are developed countries, while major importers are India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, the three largest countries with respect to population in the Indian sub-continent. Climate change models predict increasing temperatures, decreasing rainfall and hence decreased yields of cool season grain legume crops in substantial areas of the Indian sub-continent over the next fifty years. If these predictions prove to be correct, and demand is augmented further due to rapidly growing populations, then it is likely that the Indian sub-continent will need to rely more heavily on imports of grain legumes. In relation to the current major export countries, climate change models predict increases in yields in Canada, USA and France but decreased yields in Australia and Turkey. Because of this, and because Canada, USA and France have an established infrastructure favourable to increases/ shifts in production of cool season grain legumes, they are the countries most likely to be able to respond to increased demand. In conclusion, if climate change results in decreased productivity of cool season grain legume crops in the Indian sub-continent, then Canada, France and the USA are likely to be the countries that would meet the increased demand for these crops.

Strategies to Combat the Impact of Climatic Changes

Global climate warming has become increasingly evident during recent decades (Karl et al., 1997, Scientific Am 276, 78–83; Zhang et al., 2000, Atmosphere-Ocean 38, 395–429). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007a, b, Climate change 2007: Synthesis report) has documented the fact that global temperatures have been increasing and are projected to continue to increase by approximately 0.2°C per decade for the next 20 years. The rate of increases beyond that point in time may become even faster ranging between 1.8 and 4.0°C per decade due to projected increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

Soil nutrient management.

Using the techniques explained below to add soil organic matter can: • increase the amount of water that soil can hold • provide food for organisms that inhabit the soil • help minerals bind to soil • producefriable (easily crumbled) surface soils; • improve the productivity of the land (increase yields) • improve the decomposition and mineralization of organic material in the soil (i.e. surface composting) • protect the soil from excessive heat, exposure to wind, erosion, moisture loss • trap carbon in the soil to mitigate climate change • help restore degraded land and prevent soil loss • reduce or eliminate need for chemical fertilizer