Siao Sun

On calibration data selection: The case of stormwater quality regression models

A stormwater quality model should be calibrated and verified against available data before it can be confidently used. This paper mainly examines two questions: how do the size and selection of calibration data sets affect model performances and how should the calibration data sets be selected. Regression models are used to simulate stormwater quality (TSS and COD) with variables characterizing rainfall and flow characteristics. Based on large databases of three catchments in France, several models are calibrated and verified with different data subsets. It is confirmed that the selection of calibration data sets leads to significant uncertainty in model performance. The information content in the calibration data sets is also important in addition to their size. Generally model performances can be improved by using a large size of calibration data sets and by selecting calibration data that are representative of all data. Three methods endeavoring to improve model performance by selecting calibration data either according to model outputs or model inputs are developed based on the principle of choosing calibration data that are representative of the whole data set. The effectiveness of the three selection methods is demonstrated by their application on databases of the three catchments. Model performances can be generally improved by?selection methods. The selection methods based on model inputs that consider multi-dimension information perform better than the method with one-dimension information consideration. Highlights? Size and selection of calibration data lead to uncertainty in model performance. ? Selection methods are developed to choose data that are representative of all data. ? Selection methods improve model performance compared to random selection. ? Selection methods using multi-dimension information are recommended.

Input variable selection and calibration data selection for storm water quality regression models.

Storm water quality models are useful tools in storm water management. Interest has been growing in analyzing existing data for developing models for urban storm water quality evaluations. It is important to select appropriate model inputs when many candidate explanatory variables are available. Model calibration and verification are essential steps in any storm water quality modeling. This study investigates input variable selection and calibration data selection in storm water quality regression models. The two selection problems are mutually interacted. A procedure is developed in order to fulfil the two selection tasks in order. The procedure firstly selects model input variables using a cross validation method. An appropriate number of variables are identified as model inputs to ensure that a model is neither overfitted nor underfitted. Based on the model input selection results, calibration data selection is studied. Uncertainty of model performances due to calibration data selection is investigated with a random selection method. An approach using the cluster method is applied in order to enhance model calibration practice based on the principle of selecting representative data for calibration. The comparison between results from the cluster selection method and random selection shows that the former can significantly improve performances of calibrated models. It is found that the information content in calibration data is important in addition to the size of calibration data.

Using a Bayesian approach to improve and calibrate a dynamic model of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons degradation in an industrial contaminated soil.

A novel kinetics model that describes the dynamics of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in contaminated soils is presented. The model includes two typical biodegradation pathways: the co-metabolic pathway using pseudo first order kinetics and the specific biodegradation pathway modeled using Monod kinetics. The sorption of PAHs to the solid soil occurs through bi-phasic fist order kinetics, and two types of non-extractible bounded residues are considered: the biogenic and the physically sequestrated into soil matrix. The PAH model was developed in Matlab, parameterized and tested successfully on batch experimental data using a Bayesian approach (DREAM). Preliminary results led to significant model simplifications. They also highlighted that the specific biodegradation pathway was the most efficient at explaining experimental data, as would be expected for an old industrial contaminated soil. Global analysis of sensitivity showed that the amount of PAHs ultimately degraded was mostly governed by physicochemical interactions rather than by biological activity.

A Bayesian method for missing rainfall estimation using a conceptual rainfall–runoff model

ABSTRACT The estimation of missing rainfall data is an important problem for data analysis and modelling studies in hydrology. This paper develops a Bayesian method to address missing rainfall estimation from runoff measurements based on a pre-calibrated conceptual rainfall–runoff model. The Bayesian method assigns posterior probability of rainfall estimates proportional to the likelihood function of measured runoff flows and prior rainfall information, which is presented by uniform distributions in the absence of rainfall data. The likelihood function of measured runoff can be determined via the test of different residual error models in the calibration phase. The application of this method to a French urban catchment indicates that the proposed Bayesian method is able to assess missing rainfall and its uncertainty based only on runoff measurements, which provides an alternative to the reverse model for missing rainfall estimates.