Siegfried Weyerer

Prediction of institutionalization in the elderly. A systematic review

OBJECTIVE in the past decades, many studies have examined predictors of nursing home placement (NHP) in the elderly. This study provides a systematic review of predictors of NHP in the general population of developed countries. DESIGN relevant articles were identified by searching the databases MEDLINE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library and PSYNDEXplus. Studies based on population-based samples with prospective study design and identification of predictors by multivariate analyses were included. Quality of studies and evidence of predictors were determined. RESULTS thirty-six studies were identified; one-third of the studies were of high quality. Predictors with strong evidence were increased age, low self-rated health status, functional and cognitive impairment, dementia, prior NHP and a high number of prescriptions. Predictors with inconsistent results were male gender, low education status, low income, stroke, hypertension, incontinence, depression and prior hospital use. CONCLUSIONS findings suggested that predictors of NHP are mainly based on underlying cognitive and/or functional impairment, and associated lack of support and assistance in daily living. However, the methodical quality of studies needs improvement. More theoretical embedding of risk models of NHP would help to establish more clarity in complex relationships in using nursing homes.

Prediction of Dementia by Subjective Memory Impairment Effects of Severity and Temporal Association With Cognitive Impairment

CONTEXT Subjective memory impairment (SMI) is receiving increasing attention as a pre-mild cognitive impairment (MCI) condition in the course of the clinical manifestation of Alzheimer disease (AD). OBJECTIVES To determine the risk for conversion to any dementia, dementia in AD, or vascular dementia by SMI, graded by the level of SMI-related worry and by the temporal association of SMI and subsequent MCI. DESIGN Longitudinal cohort study with follow-up examinations at 1(1/2) and 3 years after baseline. SETTING Primary care medical record registry sample. PARTICIPANTS A total of 2415 subjects without cognitive impairment 75 years or older in the German Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia in Primary Care Patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Conversion to any dementia, dementia in AD, or vascular dementia at follow-up 1 or follow-up 2 predicted by SMI with or without worry at baseline and at follow-up 2 predicted by different courses of SMI at baseline and MCI at follow-up 1. RESULTS In the first analysis, SMI with worry at baseline was associated with greatest risk for conversion to any dementia (hazard ratio [HR], 3.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.07-6.03) or dementia in AD (6.54; 2.82-15.20) at follow-up 1 or follow-up 2. The sensitivity was 69.0% and the specificity was 74.3% conversion to dementia in AD. In the second analysis, SMI at baseline and MCI at follow-up 1 were associated with greatest risk for conversion to any dementia (odds ratio [OR], 8.92; 95% CI, 3.69-21.60) or dementia in AD (19.33; 5.29-70.81) at follow-up 2. Furthermore, SMI at baseline and amnestic MCI at follow-up 1 increased the risk for conversion to any dementia (OR, 29.24; 95% CI, 8.75-97.78) or dementia in AD (60.28; 12.23-297.10), with a sensitivity of 66.7% and a specificity of 98.3% for conversion to dementia in AD. CONCLUSION The prediction of dementia in AD by SMI with subsequent amnestic MCI supports the model of a consecutive 3-stage clinical manifestation of AD from SMI via MCI to dementia.

Age- and gender-specific prevalence of depression in latest-life – Systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE The objective of the study is to systematically analyze the prevalence of depression in latest life (75+), particularly focusing on age- and gender-specific rates across the latest-life age groups. DESIGN Relevant articles were identified by systematically searching the databases MEDLINE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library and Psycinfo and relevant literature from 1999 onwards was reviewed. Studies based on the community-based elderly population aged 75 years and older were included. Quality of studies was assessed. Meta-analysis was performed using random effects model. RESULTS 24 studies reporting age- and gender-specific prevalence of depression were found. 13 studies had a high to moderate methodical quality. The prevalence of major depression ranged from 4.6% to 9.3%, and that of depressive disorders from 4.5% to 37.4%. Pooled prevalence was 7.2% (95% CI 4.4-10.6%) for major depression and 17.1% (95% CI 9.7-26.1%) for depressive disorders. Potential sources of high heterogeneity of prevalence were study design, sampling strategy, study quality and applied diagnostics of latest life depression. CONCLUSIONS Despite the wide variation in estimates, it is evident that latest life depression is common. To reduce variability of study results, particularly sampling strategies (inclusion of nursing home residents and severe cognitively impaired individuals) for the old age study populations should be addressed more thoroughly in future research.

AD dementia risk in late MCI, in early MCI, and in subjective memory impairment

To compare the risk of developing Alzheimers disease (AD) dementia in late mild cognitive impairment (LMCI), early MCI (EMCI), and subjective memory impairment (SMI) with normal test performance.

The influence of age, gender and socio-economic status on multimorbidity patterns in primary care. first results from the multicare cohort study

BackgroundMultimorbidity is a phenomenon with high burden and high prevalence in the elderly. Our previous research has shown that multimorbidity can be divided into the multimorbidity patterns of 1) anxiety, depression, somatoform disorders (ADS) and pain, and 2) cardiovascular and metabolic disorders. However, it is not yet known, how these patterns are influenced by patient characteristics. The objective of this paper is to analyze the association of socio-demographic variables, and especially socio-economic status with multimorbidity in general and with each multimorbidity pattern.MethodsThe MultiCare Cohort Study is a multicentre, prospective, observational cohort study of 3.189 multimorbid patients aged 65+ randomly selected from 158 GP practices. Data were collected in GP interviews and comprehensive patient interviews. Missing values have been imputed by hot deck imputation based on Gower distance in morbidity and other variables. The association of patient characteristics with the number of chronic conditions is analysed by multilevel mixed-effects linear regression analyses.ResultsMultimorbidity in general is associated with age (+0.07 chronic conditions per year), gender (-0.27 conditions for female), education (-0.26 conditions for medium and -0.29 conditions for high level vs. low level) and income (-0.27 conditions per logarithmic unit). The pattern of cardiovascular and metabolic disorders shows comparable associations with a higher coefficient for gender (-1.29 conditions for female), while multimorbidity within the pattern of ADS and pain correlates with gender (+0.79 conditions for female), but not with age or socioeconomic status.ConclusionsOur study confirms that the morbidity load of multimorbid patients is associated with age, gender and the socioeconomic status of the patients, but there were no effects of living arrangements and marital status. We could also show that the influence of patient characteristics is dependent on the multimorbidity pattern concerned, i.e. there seem to be at least two types of elderly multimorbid patients. First, there are patients with mainly cardiovascular and metabolic disorders, who are more often male, have an older age and a lower socio-economic status. Second, there are patients mainly with ADS and pain-related morbidity, who are more often female and equally distributed across age and socio-economic groups.Trial registrationISRCTN89818205

Mild Cognitive Impairment in General Practice: Age-Specific Prevalence and Correlate Results from the German Study on Ageing, Cognition and Dementia in Primary Care Patients (AgeCoDe)

Background: Although mild cognitive impairment (MCI) represents a high-risk factor for developing dementia, little is known about the prevalence of MCI among patients of general practitioners (GPs). Aims: Estimation of age-specific prevalence for original and modified concepts of MCI and their association with sociodemographic, medical and genetic (apoE Ε4 genotype) factors among patients of GPs. Methods: A GP practice sample of 3,327 individuals aged 75+ was assessed by structured clinical interviews. Results: Prevalence was 15.4% (95% CI = 14.1–16.6) for original and 25.2% (95% CI = 23.7–26.7) for modified MCI. Rates increased significantly with older age. Positive associations were found for apoE Ε4 allele, vascular diseases and depressive symptoms. Conclusion: MCI is frequent in elderly patients of GPs. GPs have a key position in secondary prevention and care of incipient cognitive deterioration up to the diagnosis of dementia.

Prevalence and risk factors for depression in non-demented primary care attenders aged 75 years and older

BACKGROUND Depression among the elderly is an important public health issue. The aims of this study were to report the prevalence of depression and to determine the impact of socio-demographic variables, functional impairment and medical diagnoses, lifestyle factors, and mild cognitive impairment on depression as part of the German Study on Ageing, Cognition and Dementia in Primary Care Patients (AgeCoDe Study). METHODS Included in the cross-sectional survey were 3327 non-demented subjects aged 75 and over attending general practitioners (GPs) (n=138) in an urban area of Germany. The GDS-15 Geriatric Depression Scale was used to measure depression with a threshold of <6/6+. Associations with social and clinical risk factors were assessed by means of multiple logistic regression models. RESULTS The prevalence of depression was 9.7% (95% confidence interval 8.7-10.7). In a univariate analysis, the following variables were significantly associated with depression: female gender, increasing age, living alone, divorce, lower educational status, functional impairment, comorbid somatic disorder, mild cognitive impairment, smoking, and abstinence from alcohol. After full adjustment for confounding variables, odds ratios for depression were significantly higher only for functional impairment, smoking, and multi-domain mild cognitive impairment. LIMITATIONS Recruitment procedures might have led to an underestimation of current prevalence. The cross-sectional data did not allow us to analyze the temporal relationship between risk factors and depression. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of depression in the elderly is high and remains high into old age. In designing prevention programs, it is important to call more attention to the impact of functional and cognitive impairment on depression.

Self-rated health in multimorbid older general practice patients: a cross-sectional study in Germany

BackgroundWith increasing life expectancy the number of people affected by multimorbidity rises. Knowledge of factors associated with health-related quality of life in multimorbid people is scarce. We aimed to identify the factors that are associated with self-rated health (SRH) in aged multimorbid primary care patients.MethodsCross-sectional study with 3,189 multimorbid primary care patients aged from 65 to 85 years recruited in 158 general practices in 8 study centers in Germany. Information about morbidity, risk factors, resources, functional status and socio-economic data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Factors associated with SRH were identified by multivariable regression analyses.ResultsDepression, somatization, pain, limitations of instrumental activities (iADL), age, distress and Body Mass Index (BMI) were inversely related with SRH. Higher levels of physical activity, income and self-efficacy expectation had a positive association with SRH. The only chronic diseases remaining in the final model were Parkinson’s disease and neuropathies. The final model accounted for 35% variance of SRH. Separate analyses for men and women detected some similarities; however, gender specific variation existed for several factors.ConclusionIn multimorbid patients symptoms and consequences of diseases such as pain and activity limitations, as well as depression, seem to be far stronger associated with SRH than the diseases themselves. High income and self-efficacy expectation are independently associated with better SRH and high BMI and age with low SRH.Trial registrationMultiCare Cohort study registration:ISRCTN89818205.

Prediction of dementia in primary care patients.

Background Current approaches for AD prediction are based on biomarkers, which are however of restricted availability in primary care. AD prediction tools for primary care are therefore needed. We present a prediction score based on information that can be obtained in the primary care setting. Methodology/Principal Findings We performed a longitudinal cohort study in 3.055 non-demented individuals above 75 years recruited via primary care chart registries (Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia, AgeCoDe). After the baseline investigation we performed three follow-up investigations at 18 months intervals with incident dementia as the primary outcome. The best set of predictors was extracted from the baseline variables in one randomly selected half of the sample. This set included age, subjective memory impairment, performance on delayed verbal recall and verbal fluency, on the Mini-Mental-State-Examination, and on an instrumental activities of daily living scale. These variables were aggregated to a prediction score, which achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.84 for AD. The score was applied to the second half of the sample (test cohort). Here, the prediction accuracy was 0.79. With a cut-off of at least 80% sensitivity in the first cohort, 79.6% sensitivity, 66.4% specificity, 14.7% positive predictive value (PPV) and 97.8% negative predictive value of (NPV) for AD were achieved in the test cohort. At a cut-off for a high risk population (5% of individuals with the highest risk score in the first cohort) the PPV for AD was 39.1% (52% for any dementia) in the test cohort. Conclusions The prediction score has useful prediction accuracy. It can define individuals (1) sensitively for low cost-low risk interventions, or (2) more specific and with increased PPV for measures of prevention with greater costs or risks. As it is independent of technical aids, it may be used within large scale prevention programs.

Net costs of dementia by disease stage.

Leicht H, Heinrich S, Heider D, Bachmann C, Bickel H, van den Bussche H, Fuchs A, Luppa M, Maier W, Mösch E, Pentzek M, Rieder‐Heller SG, Tebarth F, Werle J, Weyerer S, Wiese B, Zimmermann T, König H‐H, for the AgeCoDe study group. Net costs of dementia by disease stage.