Silke Gabbert

How Widespread is Undernourishment? A Critique of Measurement Methods and New Empirical Results

Programmes against hunger require the identification of the undernourished. For this purpose a cutoff point is fixed which partitions the population of a region into two groups: those with insufficient access to food and those whose food needs are satisfied. We describe the standard method used to set the cutoff point. We explain how the choice of a unique cutoff point for a group of people may underestimate or overestimate undernourishment when requirements vary across people. Furthermore, we present corrected estimates of the proportion of the undernourished for a large sample of developing countries. Our results reveal that the estimation error of the standard method can be large.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Chemical Testing for Decision-Support: How to Include Animal Welfare?

ABSTRACT Toxicity testing for regulatory purposes raises the question of test selection for a particular endpoint. Given the publics concern for animal welfare, test selection is a multi-objective decision problem that requires balancing information outcome, animal welfare loss, and monetary testing costs. This paper demonstrates the applicability of cost-effectiveness analysis as a decision-support tool for test selection in a regulatory context such as, for example, the new European chemicals legislation (REACH). We distinguish different decision-making perspectives, in particular the regulators and chemical industrys perspectives, and we discuss how cost-effectiveness analysis can be applied to test selection from both perspectives. Furthermore, we show how animal welfare goals can be included in cost-effectiveness analyses, and we provide a three-dimensional extension to the standard cost-effectiveness analysis if animal welfare loss cannot be valued in monetary terms. To illustrate how cost-effectiveness analysis works in different settings, we apply our model to a simple case of selecting short-term tests for mutagenicity. We demonstrate that including sufficiently high values for animal welfare induces cost-effective replacements of animal testing. Furthermore, we show that the regulator and chemical companies face different tradeoffs when selecting tests. This may lead to different choices of tests or testing systems.

Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising flood risk management strategies under climate change. First, uncertainty about the changes in return periods of hydro-meteorological extremes is introduced by probability-weighted climate scenarios. Second, the analysis is extended by learning about climate change impacts. Learning occurs upon the probabilistic arrival of information. We distinguish between learning from scientific progress, from statistical evidence and from flood disasters. These probabilistic extensions can be used to analyse and compare the economic efficiency and flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. We offer a critical discussion of the scope of such extensions and options for increasing flexibility. We find that uncertainty reduction from scientific progress may reduce initial investments, while other types of learning may increase initial investments. This requires analysing effects of different types of learning. We also find that probabilistic information about climate change impacts and learning is imprecise. We conclude that risk-based CBA with learning improves the flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. However, CBA provides subjective estimates of expected outcomes and reflects different decision-maker preferences than those captured in robustness analyses. We therefore advocate robustness analysis in addition to, or combined with, cost-benefit analysis to support local investment decisions on flood risk reduction and global strategies on allocation of adaptation funds for flood risk management.

Quo vadis integrated testing strategies? Experiences and observations from the work floor

Integrated testing strategies (ITSs) have received much attention as promising tools for more resource-efficient hazard and risk assessment of chemicals and for reducing animal use in toxicological testing. The usage of ITSs crucially depends on their acceptance and application by various stakeholder groups, for example chemical industry, scientific organisations and regulatory authorities. However, little is known about stakeholders’ views on the use and application of ITSs. In this study, we present results from semi-structured interviews with different stakeholder groups. Interviewees were asked to express their personal views and opinions about what an ITS is or should be, about ITS advantages and limitations, about ITS implementation and acceptance and about needs for further research. Using qualitative data analysis, we identified a set of core themes that stakeholders considered most relevant with respect to these six topics. Our results illustrate that stakeholder perspectives differed considerably for each of the topics addressed. We found particularly diverging views across stakeholder groups with respect to ITS limitations and acceptance. This underlines that improving stakeholder integration and intensifying the dialogue about useful and successful ITS applications should receive more attention for strengthening ITSs as effective decision-support tools.

Sequential Testing of Chemicals When Costs Matter: A Value of Information Approach

ABSTRACT This article provides a set of general conditions to identify efficient sequential testing strategies when test information is uncertain. We first survey the Bayesian Value-of-Information (VOI) approach to test selection. Second, we extend the approach to study sequential testing systems as applied in toxicology, but also relevant in other domains. We show how the order of tests in the sequence and the stopping rule depend on prior beliefs, the diagnostic performance of tests, and testing costs. We illustrate our findings with an example from short-term genotoxicity testing and discuss implications for developing optimized sequential testing strategies for risk management of chemicals.

Time matters: A stock-pollution approach to authorisation decision-making for PBT/vPvB chemicals under REACH.

A core aim of the European chemicals legislation REACH is to ensure that the risks caused by substances of very high concern (SVHC) are adequately controlled. Authorisation - i.e. the formal approval of certain uses of SVHC for a limited time - is a key regulatory instrument in order to achieve this goal. For SVHC which are, in addition to their toxicity, (very) persistent and/or (very) bioaccumulative (PBT/vPvB chemicals), decision-making on the authorisation is conditional on a socio-economic analysis (SEA). In a SEA companies must demonstrate that the gains from keeping a chemical in use outweigh expected damage costs for society. The current setup of the REACH authorisation process, including existing guidance on performing a SEA, ignores that PBT/vPvB chemicals are stock pollutants. This paper explores the implications of incorporating stock pollution effects of these chemicals into a SEA on authorisation decision-making. We develop a cost-benefit approach which includes stock dynamics of PBT/vPvB chemicals. This allows identifying the decision rules for granting or refusing an authorisation. Furthermore, we generalize the model to an entire set of damage functions. We show that ignoring stock pollution effects in a SEA may lead to erroneous decisions on the use of PBT/vPvB chemicals because long-term impacts are not adequately captured. Using a historic case of DDT soil contamination as an illustrative example we discuss information requirements and challenges for authorisation decisions on the use of PBT/vPvB chemicals under REACH.

On the Measurement of Food Insecurity: How to Account for Risk?

This article offers a measure of food insecurity. Its purpose is to capture the idea that the concept of food insecurity is inherently forward-looking. We apply our measure to construct a refinement of the measures of undernourishment used by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to assess food insecurity across countries. First, we account for the fact that food supply is subject to risk. This risk is an additional burden on the undernourished and on those who are at the edge of undernourishment. Second, unlike much of the previous literature, we use forecasts instead of data from past years in our assessment. To illustrate our approach we estimate risk-adjusted indexes for a sample of African and Southeast Asian countries to describe their state of food insecurity. In addition, we compare and contrast our results with FAOs estimates of undernourishment. The country rankings we obtain using the risk-adjusted measures differ significantly from the country rankings for undernourishment obtained with FAOs methodology.

The Essential Elements of a Risk Governance Framework for Current and Future Nanotechnologies

Societies worldwide are investing considerable resources into the safe development and use of nanomaterials. Although each of these protective efforts is crucial for governing the risks of nanomaterials, they are insufficient in isolation. What is missing is a more integrative governance approach that goes beyond legislation. Development of this approach must be evidence based and involve key stakeholders to ensure acceptance by end users. The challenge is to develop a framework that coordinates the variety of actors involved in nanotechnology and civil society to facilitate consideration of the complex issues that occur in this rapidly evolving research and development area. Here, we propose three sets of essential elements required to generate an effective risk governance framework for nanomaterials. (1) Advanced tools to facilitate risk-based decision making, including an assessment of the needs of users regarding risk assessment, mitigation, and transfer. (2) An integrated model of predicted human behavior and decision making concerning nanomaterial risks. (3) Legal and other (nano-specific and general) regulatory requirements to ensure compliance and to stimulate proactive approaches to safety. The implementation of such an approach should facilitate and motivate good practice for the various stakeholders to allow the safe and sustainable future development of nanotechnology.

Nuclear Waste Management under Approaching Disaster: A Comparison of Decommissioning Strategies for the German Repository Asse II.

This article compares different strategies for handling low- and medium-level nuclear waste buried in a retired potassium mine in Germany (Asse II) that faces significant risk of uncontrollable brine intrusion and, hence, long-term groundwater contamination. We survey the policy process that has resulted in the identification of three possible so-called decommissioning options: complete backfilling, relocation of the waste to deeper levels in the mine, and retrieval. The selection of a decommissioning strategy must compare expected investment costs with expected social damage costs (economic, environmental, and health damage costs) caused by flooding and subsequent groundwater contamination. We apply a cost minimization approach that accounts for the uncertainty regarding the stability of the rock formation and the risk of an uncontrollable brine intrusion. Since economic and health impacts stretch out into the far future, we examine the impact of different discounting methods and rates. Due to parameter uncertainty, we conduct a sensitivity analysis concerning key assumptions. We find that retrieval, the currently preferred option by policymakers, has the lowest expected social damage costs for low discount rates. However, this advantage is overcompensated by higher expected investment costs. Considering all costs, backfilling is the best option for all discounting scenarios considered.