Silvan Ragettli

The importance of observed gradients of air temperature and precipitation for modeling runoff from a glacierized watershed in the Nepalese Himalayas

The performance of glaciohydrological models which simulate catchment response to climate variability depends to a large degree on the data used to force the models. The forcing data become increasingly important in high-elevation, glacierized catchments where the interplay between extreme topography, climate, and the cryosphere is complex. It is challenging to generate a reliable forcing data set that captures this spatial heterogeneity. In this paper, we analyze the results of a 1 year field campaign focusing on air temperature and precipitation observations in the Langtang valley in the Nepalese Himalayas. We use the observed time series to characterize both temperature lapse rates (LRs) and precipitation gradients (PGs). We study their spatial and temporal variability, and we attempt to identify possible controlling factors. We show that very clear LRs exist in the valley and that there are strong seasonal differences related to the water vapor content in the atmosphere. Results also show that the LRs are generally shallower than the commonly used environmental lapse rates. The analysis of the precipitation observations reveals that there is great variability in precipitation over short horizontal distances. A uniform valley wide PG cannot be established, and several scale-dependent mechanisms may explain our observations. We complete our analysis by showing the impact of the observed LRs and PGs on the outputs of the TOPKAPI-ETH glaciohydrological model. We conclude that LRs and PGs have a very large impact on the water balance composition and that short-term monitoring campaigns have the potential to improve model quality considerably.

Changes of glaciers in the Andes of Chile and priorities for future work

Glaciers in the Andes of Chile seem to be shrinking and possibly loosing mass, but the number and types of studies conducted, constrained mainly by data availability, are not sufficient to provide a synopsis of glacier changes for the past or future or explain in an explicit way causes of the observed changes. In this paper, we provide a systematic review of changes in glaciers for the entire country, followed by a discussion of the studies that have provided evidence of such changes. We identify a missing type of work in distributed, physically-oriented modelling studies that are needed to bridge the gap between the numerous remote sensing studies and the specific, point scale works focused on process understanding. We use an advanced mass balance model applied to one of the best monitored glaciers in the region to investigate four main research issues that should be addressed in modelling studies for a sound assessment of glacier changes: 1) the use of physically-based models of glacier ablation (energy balance models) versus more empirical models (enhanced temperature index approaches); 2) the importance of the correct extrapolation of air temperature forcing on glaciers and in high elevation areas and the large uncertainty in model outputs associated with it; 3) the role played by snow gravitational redistribution; and 4) the uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios. We quantify differences in model outputs associated with each of these choices, and conclude with suggestions for future work directions.

Contrasting climate change impact on river flows from high-altitude catchments in the Himalayan and Andes Mountains

Significance Changes in the hydrology of high-altitude catchments may have major consequences for downstream water supply. Based on model projections with a higher spatiotemporal resolution and degree of process complexity than any previous intercontinental comparative study, we show that the impacts of climate change cannot be generalized. These impacts range from a high climatic sensitivity, decreasing runoff, and significant seasonal changes in the Central Andes of Chile to increasing future runoff, limited seasonal shifts, but increases in peak flows in the Nepalese Himalaya. This study constrains uncertainty about response times and mechanisms controlling glacier and runoff response to climate and sets a benchmark for process-based modeling of the climate change impact on the hydrology of high-altitude catchments. Mountain ranges are the world’s natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.

Air temperature variability in a high-elevation Himalayan catchment

Abstract Air temperature is a key control of processes affecting snow and glaciers in high-elevation catchments, including melt, snowfall and sublimation. It is therefore a key input variable to models of land–surface–atmosphere interaction. Despite this importance, its spatial variability is poorly understood and simple assumptions are made to extrapolate it from point observations to the catchment scale. We use a dataset of 2.75 years of air temperature measurements (from May 2012 to November 2014) at a network of up to 27 locations in the Langtang River, Nepal, catchment to investigate air temperature seasonality and consistency between years. We use observations from high elevations and from the easternmost section of the basin to corroborate previous findings of shallow lapse rates. Seasonal variability is strong, with shallowest lapse rates during the monsoon season. Diurnal variability is also strong and should be taken into account since processes such as melt have a pronounced diurnal variability. Use of seasonal lapse rates seems crucial for glacio-hydrological modelling, but seasonal lapse rates seem stable over the 2–3 years investigated. Lateral variability at transects across valley is high and dominated by aspect, with south-facing sites being warmer than north-facing sites and deviations from the fitted lapse rates of up to several degrees. Local factors (e.g. topographic shading) can reduce or enhance this effect. The interplay of radiation, aspect and elevation should be further investigated with high-elevation transects.