Silvana Krause

O eleitor antipetista: partidarismo e avaliação retrospectiva

Ha um grande numero de estudos sobre o Partido dos Trabalhadores, abordando desde a sua origem, organizacao e dinâmica interna ate a sua relacao com o eleitorado. A legenda, ao longo dos anos, tem apresentado os maiores indices de preferencia partidaria vis-a-vis as demais, fenomeno esse conhecido como petismo. O artigo propoe-se a analisar a outra face desse fenomeno: a rejeicao que parcela do eleitorado tem demonstrado a esse partido, o antipetismo. Queremos saber quem e o eleitor antipetista, com base nos dados do Estudo Eleitoral Brasileiro (Eseb) 2014. Nosso objetivo principal e identificar e caracterizar o perfil do eleitor antipetista, por meio da estatistica descritiva, e estabelecer uma comparacao com o eleitor antipartidario. Em seguida, recorrendo a um modelo de regressao logistica ajustado, detectar o impacto de algumas variaveis sobre a probabilidade de o entrevistado ser identificado como antipetista. Os resultados mostraram que a avaliacao negativa do desempenho do governo da presidente Dilma Rousseff e o voto nos candidatos do PSDB nas eleicoes presidenciais sao variaveis determinantes para um eleitor ser antipetista.

O perfil do financiamento dos partidos brasileiros (2006-2012): autores, objetivos, êxito e fracasso (1988-2010)

In analysis about political parties, there is a classical debate about types of parties. Typological models are based specially on indicators. Party funding is a central dimension that provides parameters to identify types. In this paper, we propose contrasting different party models highlighted in literature with the profile of funding found in Brazilian party organizations. Through data provided by the Electoral Supreme Court (TSE), we identify the origin of resources that fund parties. We conclude that there is, in case of Brazil, a clear departure from cadre-based parties of and mass parties and an approximation to a catch-all or cartel party. However, the Party Fund has not shown evidence to support the thesis of a process of cartelization. Instead, it has helped to guarantee smaller concentration in political competition and also to keep a larger supply in the party market.

Los Break-in parties en América Latina: ¿éxito o fracaso?

This research note outlines the theoretical development and methodological design of the research project “Break-in parties in Latin America: Success or Failure?”. The aim of the project is to analyze the characteristics of parties that manage to break into the party system – to clarify how structural conditions at the moment of genesis affect the “inward” and “outward” development of these parties and to explain how its origin and development are linked to their subsequent success or failure. To expose these objectives, in this research-note we procede as follows: first, we offer a literature review on the emergence of new parties; second, we discuss what is “new” in these kinds of organizations; and third, we explain our theoretical and methodological approach to analyze the break-in parties in Latin America.

'Break-In Parties' and Changing Patterns of Democracy in Latin America

Although Lijpharts typology of consensus and majoritarian democracy can be regarded as the most widely used tool to classify democratic regimes, it has been rarely applied to Latin America so far. We try to fill this gap by adapting Lijpharts typological framework to the Latin American context in the following way. In contrast to previous studies, we treat the type of democracy as an independent variable and include informal factors such as clientelism or informal employment in our assessment of democratic patterns. On this basis, we aim to answer the following questions. First, how did the patterns of democracy evolve in Latin America over the two decades between 1990 and 2010 and what kind of differences can be observed in the region? Second, what are the institutional determinants of the observed changes? We focus on the emergence of new parties because of their strong impact on the first dimension of Lijpharts typology. From our observations we draw the following tentative conclusions: If strong new parties established themselves in the party system but failed to gain the presidency, they pushed the system towards consensualism. Conversely, new parties that gained the presidency produced more majoritarian traits.

Estratégias coligacionistas dos partidos de esquerda no Brasil : uma análise das eleições para governadores (1986-2010)

As eleicoes para governadores oferecem um momento privilegiado para observar nao somente as estrategias dos partidos frente ao desafio de compor forcas eleitorais, como tambem permitem delinear o comportamento e as opcoes do eleitorado. O trabalho tem como objetivo, em um primeiro momento, tracar um perfil das estrategias coligacionistas dos partidos de esquerda: PT, PDT, PSB, PC do B, PCB, PPS, PS, PV, PSTU, PSOL, PCO, PMN, PHS, PH1 que participaram nas eleicoes para governadores dos Estados (1986-2010). Em um segundo momento, pretende-se avaliar o impacto da variavel “consistencia ideologica” das coligacoes sobre a performance eleitoral.