Silvana Mima

Marginal abatement costs of CO2 emission reductions, geographical flexibility and concrete ceilings: an assessment using the POLES model

Abstract The Kyoto Protocol envisage the setting-up of flexibility mechanisms allowing Annex B countries to fulfil their commitments to reducing greenhouse gases with respect for the principle of economic efficiency. The current negotiations relate in particular to the possibility of setting up a system of tradable emissions permits for Annex B countries and also of introducing “ceilings” to trade. This paper analyses the stakes and economic potential of adopting this instrument, both for those countries that made commitments in Kyoto and for developing countries. It is based on a formal approach that allows for a consistent framework of analysis. The emission permit market, is, in fact, simulated on the basis of a reference scenario and of marginal abatement cost curves and estimated by the POLES model; after analysing these marginal abatement cost curves and comparing them with those produced by other models, we explore two different configurations for a competitive market: a market limited to the Annex B countries and a world market. The results produced by the model show that widening the market to include developing countries is more effective than the Annex B market solution; it reduces the cost of implementing Kyoto for OECD countries and at the same time allows the countries of the South to benefit from selling the permits. This research also shows that introducing restrictions on exchanges for Annex B countries could have a counter-productive redistribution effect, with the ethical argument that underlies that particular measure.

Public Health Benefits of Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse-Gas Emissions: Low-Carbon Electricity Generation

In this report, the third in this Series on health and climate change, we assess the changes in particle air pollution emissions and consequent effects on health that are likely to result from greenhouse-gas mitigation measures in the electricity generation sector in the European Union (EU), China, and India. We model the effect in 2030 of policies that aim to reduce total carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emissions by 50% by 2050 globally compared with the effect of emissions in 1990. We use three models: the POLES model, which identifies the distribution of production modes that give the desired CO(2) reductions and associated costs; the GAINS model, which estimates fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter 2.5 microm or less (PM(2.5)) concentrations; and a model to estimate the effect of PM(2.5) on mortality on the basis of the WHOs Comparative Risk Assessment methods. Changes in modes of production of electricity to reduce CO(2) emissions would, in all regions, reduce PM(2.5) and deaths caused by it, with the greatest effect in India and the smallest in the EU. Health benefits greatly offset costs of greenhouse-gas mitigation, especially in India where pollution is high and costs of mitigation are low. Our estimates are approximations but suggest clear health gains (co-benefits) through decarbonising electricity production, and provide additional information about the extent of such gains.

The trajectories of new energy technologies in carbon constraint cases with the POLES world energy model

The MENGHTECH study (Modelling of Energy Technologies Prospective in a General and Partial Equilibrium Framework, under EU-FP6) has aimed at introducing a more detailed treatment of technological change in the general and partial equilibrium large scale models used for the design of climate policies. In this context, the modelling of endogenous technical change in the POLES model (a 46 regions, world long term energy model) has been improved, with the introduction, in addition to the existing “learning-bydoing” and “learning-by-searching” features, of social network effects and the simulation of breakthroughs in certain clusters of technologies. With this new version of the model, a Reference and a Carbon Constraint projection of the world energy system to 2100 have been developed, in order to test different scenarios for technology and climate policies in the next century. These projections adopt exogenous forecasts for population and economic growth in the different world regions and make consistent assumptions for the availability of fossil energy resources and for the features and performances of future technologies. On the contrary, the mechanisms of different nature introduced in the model – according to the literature on technical change – allow for an endogenous treatment of technology and for complex dynamics and development paths. The POLES model is used in order to describe the development to 2100 of a set of key technologies among the fifty identified in the model, in this exercise especially concerning the transport sector. Such simulations performed under constraints on fossil energy resources and GHG emissions take into account the impacts on national and regional energy systems and their interactions through international energy markets, The Carbon Constraint case reflects a state of the world with ambitious climate targets, aiming at an emission profile that is compatible in the long-term with concentration levels below 550 ppmv CO2 equivalent, i.e. a profile that is consistent with those analysed in the Stern report. Taken together, the Reference projection and the Carbon Constraint case indicate the major changes to be expected in the structure and development of the world energy system in different policy contexts. The present POLES projections, with the horizon of 2100, clearly show the consequences of the twin constraints of finite fossil fuel resources and restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions. The images of the world provided in the MENGHTECH runs of POLES clearly illustrate the impact of technological breakthroughs and radical changes in the world energy system. Three sets of scenarios are considered in the paper: a Carbon Constraint case, with “social network effects” and “breakthrough effects” focused either: i. on the electricity sector or, ii. on the hydrogen technology cluster and, iii. on both of these energy carriers. They describe alternative technological and socio-economic pathways that illustrate the consequences of disruptions in the diffusion of electricity or hydrogen energy carriers. After an introduction, the paper first presents (section 2) the main features of the POLES model with details on the treatment of endogenous technical change, as well as the common sets of assumptions used in the model’s databases. The third section presents and compares the results of the Reference projection and of the Carbon Constraint case for the World and for Europe (EU27). The fourth section analyses the differentiated impacts of technological breakthroughs in the Carbon Constraint case in the presence of social network effects applied to the adoption of key technologies in the electricity or/and hydrogen developments. The fifth section concludes with the analysis of the combined effects of social network effects and learning-by-doing that creates increasing returns to adoption and snowballing effects. The key results correspond to significant reductions in the cost of the low-carbon technologies but also to very contrasted energy technology paradigms in the next century.

The future of fuel cells in a long term inter-technology competition framework

New technological options generally represent solutions to new requirements or constraints. While the solutions in the framework of existing technologies are generally expensive, clean technologies are often considered as best alternatives for meeting sustainable development targets [24]. Nevertheless new technologies have to compete with the existing ones, whose environmental performances appear unsatisfactory today but may improve, sometimes significantly, in the future. Thus new technological options involve significant risks and costs but also anticipations of future opportunities and profits that play a central role in the decisions to involve in new development.

POLES-JRC model documentation

This report is a public manual for the POLES-JRC model, the in-house tool of the European Commission for global and long-term analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies and evolution of energy markets. The model includes a comprehensive description of the energy system and related GHG emissions for a large set of significant economies and residual regions, covering the world and including international bunkers. Through linkage with specialised tools it also provides a full coverage of GHG emissions, including from land use and agriculture, as well as of air pollutant emissions. The POLES-JRC model builds on years of development of the POLES model while adding specific features developed internally within the JRC. The model version presented in this report is used in particular to produce the JRC Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO) series. Complementary information can be found on the JRC Science Hub website: http://ec.europa.eu/jrc/poles ttp://ec.europa.eu/jrc/geco

Water demand for electricity in deep decarbonisation scenarios: a multi-model assessment

This study assesses the effects of deep electricity decarbonisation and shifts in the choice of power plant cooling technologies on global electricity water demand, using a suite of five integrated assessment models. We find that electricity sector decarbonisation results in co-benefits for water resources primarily due to the phase-out of water-intensive coal-based thermoelectric power generation, although these co-benefits vary substantially across decarbonisation scenarios. Wind and solar photovoltaic power represent a win-win option for both climate and water resources, but further expansion of nuclear or fossil- and biomass-fuelled power plants with carbon capture and storage may result in increased pressures on the water environment. Further to these results, the paper provides insights on the most crucial factors of uncertainty with regards to future estimates of water demand. These estimates varied substantially across models in scenarios where the effects of decarbonisation on the electricity mix were less clear-cut. Future thermal and water efficiency improvements of power generation technologies and demand-side energy efficiency improvements were also identified to be important factors of uncertainty. We conclude that in order to ensure positive effects of decarbonisation on water resources, climate policy should be combined with technology-specific energy and/or water policies.

Global energy sector emission reductions and bioenergy use: overview of the bioenergy demand phase of the EMF-33 model comparison

We present an overview of results from 11 integrated assessment models (IAMs) that participated in the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-33) on the viability of large-scale deployment of bioenergy for achieving long-run climate goals. The study explores future bioenergy use across models under harmonized scenarios for future climate policies, availability of bioenergy technologies, and constraints on biomass supply. This paper provides a more transparent description of IAMs that span a broad range of assumptions regarding model structures, energy sectors, and bioenergy conversion chains. Without emission constraints, we find vastly different CO2 emission and bioenergy deployment patterns across models due to differences in competition with fossil fuels, the possibility to produce large-scale bio-liquids, and the flexibility of energy systems. Imposing increasingly stringent carbon budgets mostly increases bioenergy use. A diverse set of available bioenergy technology portfolios provides flexibility to allocate bioenergy to supply different final energy as well as remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by combining bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS). Sector and regional bioenergy allocation varies dramatically across models mainly due to bioenergy technology availability and costs, final energy patterns, and availability of alternative decarbonization options. Although much bioenergy is used in combination with CCS, BECCS is not necessarily the driver of bioenergy use. We find that the flexibility to use biomass feedstocks in different energy sub-sectors makes large-scale bioenergy deployment a robust strategy in mitigation scenarios that is surprisingly insensitive with respect to reduced technology availability. However, the achievability of stringent carbon budgets and associated carbon prices is sensitive. Constraints on biomass feedstock supply increase the carbon price less significantly than excluding BECCS because carbon removals are still realized and valued. Incremental sensitivity tests find that delayed readiness of bioenergy technologies until 2050 is more important than potentially higher investment costs.

Long-term competition between gas infrastructure developments in Asia: the restrictive effect on Siberian and Caspian export development

The paper analyses the probable position of major continental infrastructures for gas trade within Asia in relation to the liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects which are foreseen as advantageous in the future for supplying energy to the Asian markets. Siberia and countries of the Caspian Basin and Central Asia are becoming steadily more reliable as potential export sources of gas supplies in Asia. However, in the light of the competition from the Middle East and Southeast Asia, LNG poses a range of economic, institutional and geopolitical restrictions on the development of continental gas pipeline projects. These projects need major investments that require an association of international investors; however, such investors will not involve themselves in such projects without major changes to the institutions and economic structures of Russia and the Central Asian Republics. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)