Silvia Andrés González-Moralejo

Agricultural employment in Spain and new Keynesian economics

Our research examines the agricultural labor market from the perspective of new Keynesian economics. Our aim is to verify that total gross output, total factor productivity, and real wages act as determinants of employment levels in Spanish agriculture. Three structural econometric models were estimated using census data for the period 1998-2013. This was a period of profound economic and social change, and the following two distinct sub-periods were compared: 1998-2007 (a period of economic boom) and 2008-2013 (a period of recession). The empirical evidence is consistent with neo-Keynesian theoretical posits, albeit with certain qualifiers derived from the specifically rural nature of the evidence. The results show a negative relationship between employment and productivity and wages, which intensified during the recession. La investigacion relaciona el mercado de trabajo agricola con la escuela de pensamiento Nueva Economia Keynesiana. Su proposito es comprobar que la produccion bruta, la productividad total factorial y los salarios actuan como determinantes del empleo en la agricultura espanola. A partir de datos censales se estiman tres modelos econometricos de caracter estructural en un periodo de profundos cambios dentro del contexto economico y social, 1998-2013, por lo que se comparan dos subperiodos distintos, 1998-2007 y 2008-2013, de auge y recesion economica respectivamente. La evidencia empirica es, en general, consistente con los postulados teoricos neokeynesianos, aunque con ciertas matizaciones derivadas de la especificidad rural. Asi, los resultados revelan una relacion negativa entre el empleo y la productividad y los salarios, que se intensifica durante los anos de contraccion de la economia.