Silvia Bertagnolio

Global trends in antiretroviral resistance in treatment-naive individuals with HIV after rollout of antiretroviral treatment in resource-limited settings: a global collaborative study and meta-regression analysis.

Summary Background The emergence and spread of high levels of HIV-1 drug resistance in resource-limited settings where combination antiretroviral treatment has been scaled up could compromise the effectiveness of national HIV treatment programmes. We aimed to estimate changes in the prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance in treatment-naive individuals with HIV since initiation of rollout in resource-limited settings. Methods We did a systematic search for studies and conference abstracts published between January, 2001, and July, 2011, and included additional data from the WHO HIV drug resistance surveillance programme. We assessed the prevalence of drug-resistance mutations in untreated individuals with respect to time since rollout in a series of random-effects meta-regression models. Findings Study-level data were available for 26 102 patients from sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America. We recorded no difference between chronic and recent infection on the prevalence of one or more drug-resistance mutations for any region. East Africa had the highest estimated rate of increase at 29% per year (95% CI 15 to 45; p=0·0001) since rollout, with an estimated prevalence of HIV-1 drug resistance at 8 years after rollout of 7·4% (4·3 to 12·7). We recorded an annual increase of 14% (0% to 29%; p=0·054) in southern Africa and a non-significant increase of 3% (–0·9 to 16; p=0·618) in west and central Africa. There was no change in resistance over time in Latin America, and because of much country-level heterogeneity the meta-regression analysis was not appropriate for Asia. With respect to class of antiretroviral, there were substantial increases in resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) in east Africa (36% per year [21 to 52]; p<0·0001) and southern Africa (23% per year [7 to 42]; p=0·0049). No increase was noted for the other drug classes in any region. Interpretation Our findings suggest a significant increase in prevalence of drug resistance over time since antiretroviral rollout in regions of sub-Saharan Africa; this rise is driven by NNRTI resistance in studies from east and southern Africa. The findings are of concern and draw attention to the need for enhanced surveillance and drug-resistance prevention efforts by national HIV treatment programmes. Nevertheless, estimated levels, although increasing, are not unexpected in view of the large expansion of antiretroviral treatment coverage seen in low-income and middle-income countries—no changes in antiretroviral treatment guidelines are warranted at the moment. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the European Communitys Seventh Framework Programme

Geographic and Temporal Trends in the Molecular Epidemiology and Genetic Mechanisms of Transmitted HIV-1 Drug Resistance: An Individual-Patient- and Sequence-Level Meta-Analysis

Background Regional and subtype-specific mutational patterns of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) are essential for informing first-line antiretroviral (ARV) therapy guidelines and designing diagnostic assays for use in regions where standard genotypic resistance testing is not affordable. We sought to understand the molecular epidemiology of TDR and to identify the HIV-1 drug-resistance mutations responsible for TDR in different regions and virus subtypes. Methods and Findings We reviewed all GenBank submissions of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase sequences with or without protease and identified 287 studies published between March 1, 2000, and December 31, 2013, with more than 25 recently or chronically infected ARV-naïve individuals. These studies comprised 50,870 individuals from 111 countries. Each set of study sequences was analyzed for phylogenetic clustering and the presence of 93 surveillance drug-resistance mutations (SDRMs). The median overall TDR prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), south/southeast Asia (SSEA), upper-income Asian countries, Latin America/Caribbean, Europe, and North America was 2.8%, 2.9%, 5.6%, 7.6%, 9.4%, and 11.5%, respectively. In SSA, there was a yearly 1.09-fold (95% CI: 1.05–1.14) increase in odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up attributable to an increase in non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance. The odds of NNRTI-associated TDR also increased in Latin America/Caribbean (odds ratio [OR] = 1.16; 95% CI: 1.06–1.25), North America (OR = 1.19; 95% CI: 1.12–1.26), Europe (OR = 1.07; 95% CI: 1.01–1.13), and upper-income Asian countries (OR = 1.33; 95% CI: 1.12–1.55). In SSEA, there was no significant change in the odds of TDR since national ARV scale-up (OR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.92–1.02). An analysis limited to sequences with mixtures at less than 0.5% of their nucleotide positions—a proxy for recent infection—yielded trends comparable to those obtained using the complete dataset. Four NNRTI SDRMs—K101E, K103N, Y181C, and G190A—accounted for >80% of NNRTI-associated TDR in all regions and subtypes. Sixteen nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) SDRMs accounted for >69% of NRTI-associated TDR in all regions and subtypes. In SSA and SSEA, 89% of NNRTI SDRMs were associated with high-level resistance to nevirapine or efavirenz, whereas only 27% of NRTI SDRMs were associated with high-level resistance to zidovudine, lamivudine, tenofovir, or abacavir. Of 763 viruses with TDR in SSA and SSEA, 725 (95%) were genetically dissimilar; 38 (5%) formed 19 sequence pairs. Inherent limitations of this study are that some cohorts may not represent the broader regional population and that studies were heterogeneous with respect to duration of infection prior to sampling. Conclusions Most TDR strains in SSA and SSEA arose independently, suggesting that ARV regimens with a high genetic barrier to resistance combined with improved patient adherence may mitigate TDR increases by reducing the generation of new ARV-resistant strains. A small number of NNRTI-resistance mutations were responsible for most cases of high-level resistance, suggesting that inexpensive point-mutation assays to detect these mutations may be useful for pre-therapy screening in regions with high levels of TDR. In the context of a public health approach to ARV therapy, a reliable point-of-care genotypic resistance test could identify which patients should receive standard first-line therapy and which should receive a protease-inhibitor-containing regimen.

Pharmacy Adherence Measures to Assess Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy: Review of the Literature and Implications for Treatment Monitoring

Prescription or pill-based methods for estimating adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), pharmacy adherence measures (PAMs), are objective estimates calculated from routinely collected pharmacy data. We conducted a literature review to evaluate PAMs, including their association with virological and other clinical outcomes, their efficacy compared with other adherence measures, and factors to consider when selecting a PAM to monitor adherence. PAMs were classified into 3 categories: medication possession ratio (MPR), pill count (PC), and pill pick-up (PPU). Data exist to recommend PAMs over self-reported adherence. PAMs consistently predicted patient outcomes, but additional studies are needed to determine the most predictive PAM parameters. Current evidence suggests that shorter duration of adherence assessment (≤ 6 months) and use of PAMs to predict future outcomes may be less accurate. PAMs which incorporate the number of days for which ART was prescribed without the counting of remnant pills, are reasonable minimum-resource methods to assess adherence to ART.

Viral suppression after 12 months of antiretroviral therapy in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE To establish estimates of viral suppression in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in patients who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. METHODS Data on viral suppression after 12 months of ART in LMICs were collected from articles published in 2003 to 2011 and from abstracts of conferences held between 2009 and 2011. Pooled proportions for on-treatment and intention-to-treat populations were used as summary estimates. Random-effects models were used for heterogeneous groups of studies (I (2) > 75%). FINDINGS Overall, 49 studies covering 48 cohorts and 30 016 individuals met the inclusion criteria. With thresholds for suppression between 300 and 500 copies of viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) per ml of plasma, 84.3% (95% confidence interval, CI: 80.4-87.9) of the pooled on-treatment population and 70.5% (95% CI: 65.2-75.6) of the intention-to-treat population showed suppression. Use of different viral RNA thresholds changed the proportions showing suppression: to 84% and 76% of the on-treatment population with thresholds set above 300 and at or below 200 RNA copies per ml, respectively, and to 78%, 71% and 63% of the intention-to-treat population at thresholds set at 1000, 300 to 500, and 200 or fewer copies per ml, respectively. CONCLUSION The pooled estimates of viral suppression recorded after 12 months of ART in LMICs provide benchmarks that other ART programmes can use to set realistic goals and perform predictive modelling. Evidence from this review suggests that the current international target - i.e. viral suppression in > 70% of the intention-to-treat population, with a threshold of 1000 copies per ml - should be revised upwards.

Long-term Virological Outcomes of First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy for HIV-1 in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND More than 11.7 million people are currently receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and focused efforts are needed to ensure high levels of adherence and to minimize treatment failure. Recently, international targets have emphasized the importance of long-term virological suppression as a key measure of program performance. METHODS We systematically reviewed publications and conference abstracts published between January 2006 and May 2013 that reported virological outcomes among human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-infected adults receiving first-line ART for up to 5 years in LMICs. Summary estimates of virological suppression after 6, 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months of ART were analyzed using random-effects meta-analysis. Intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis assumed all participants who were lost to follow-up, died, or stopped ART as having virological failure. RESULTS Summary estimates of virological suppression remained >80% for up to 60 months of ART for all 184 included cohorts. ITT analysis yielded 74.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 72.2-77.2) suppression after 6 months and 61.8% (95% CI, 44.0-79.7) suppression after 48 months on ART. Switches to second-line ART were reported scarcely. CONCLUSIONS Among individuals retained on ART, virological suppression rates during the first 5 years of ART were high (>80%) and stable. Suppression rates in ITT analysis declined during 4 years.

Drug resistance among newly diagnosed HIV-infected children in the era of more efficacious antiretroviral prophylaxis.

Background:In the era of more efficacious prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) regimens, documenting the profile of drug resistance in HIV-infected infants and young children is critical to our efforts to improve care and treatment for children. Methods:HIV drug resistance mutations in plasma virus were ascertained using population sequencing among 230 newly diagnosed HIV-infected children under 2 years of age recruited in Johannesburg, South Africa, during 2011. By this time, more effective PMTCT regimens, including combination antiretroviral therapy for pregnant women, were being implemented. Results:Two-thirds (67.4%) of HIV-infected children had been exposed to some form of maternal (89%) and/or infant (97%) PMTCT. Among PMTCT-exposed, 56.8% had nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), 14.8% nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI), and 1.3% protease inhibitor mutations. NNRTI mutations were strongly related to younger age. The remaining third (32.6%) had no reported or recorded PMTCT exposures, but resistance to NNRTI was detected in 24.0%, NRTI in 10.7%, and protease inhibitor in 1.3%. Conclusion:The new PMTCT strategies dramatically reduce the number of children who acquire infection, but among those who do become infected, NNRTI resistance prevalence is high. In this South African setting with high PMTCT coverage, almost a quarter of children with no reported or recorded PMTCT also have drug resistance mutations. PMTCT history is an inadequate means of ruling out pretreatment drug resistance. Our results support the use of protease inhibitor-based first-line regimens in HIV-infected infants and young children regardless of PMTCT history.

Update on World Health Organization HIV drug resistance prevention and assessment strategy: 2004-2011

The HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) prevention and assessment strategy, developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in partnership with HIVResNet, includes monitoring of HIVDR early warning indicators, surveys to assess acquired and transmitted HIVDR, and development of an accredited HIVDR genotyping laboratory network to support survey implementation in resource-limited settings. As of June 2011, 52 countries had implemented at least 1 element of the strategy, and 27 laboratories had been accredited. As access to antiretrovirals expands under the WHO/Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS Treatment 2.0 initiative, it is essential to strengthen HIVDR surveillance efforts in the face of increasing concern about HIVDR emergence and transmission.

HIV Drug Resistance Early Warning Indicators in Cohorts of Individuals Starting Antiretroviral Therapy Between 2004 and 2009: World Health Organization Global Report From 50 Countries

The World Health Organization developed a set of human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance (HIVDR) early warning indicators (EWIs) to assess antiretroviral therapy clinic and program factors associated with HIVDR. EWIs are monitored by abstracting data routinely recorded in clinical records, and the results enable clinics and program managers to identify problems that should be addressed to minimize preventable emergence of HIVDR in clinic populations. As of June 2011, 50 countries monitored EWIs, covering 131 686 patients initiating antiretroviral treatment between 2004 and 2009 at 2107 clinics. HIVDR prevention is associated with patient care (appropriate prescribing and patient monitoring), patient behavior (adherence), and clinic/program management efforts to reduce treatment interruptions (follow up, retention on first-line ART, procurement and supply management of antiretroviral drugs). EWIs measure these factors and the results have been used to optimize patient and population treatment outcomes.

Transmission of Drug Resistant HIV and Its Potential Impact on Mortality and Treatment Outcomes in Resource-Limited Settings

Scale-up of antiretroviral therapy in low- and middle-income countries has been achieved by using a public health approach that involved national standard regimens and clinical monitoring in settings where laboratory infrastructure was not available. This strategy potentially allows for long periods of unrecognized viral failure, during which drug-resistant virus can be transmitted and this could compromise the long-term effectiveness of currently available first-line regimens. In response to this concern, the World Health Organization recommends population-based surveys to detect whether the prevalence of resistance in ART-naive people is reaching alerting levels. Whereas adherence counseling has to be an integral component of any treatment program, it is still unclear which threshold of transmitted drug resistance (TDR) should trigger additional targeted public health actions and which action is the most cost-effective. Mathematical models can contribute to answer these questions. In order to estimate the potential long-term impact of TDR on mortality in people on ART we used the Synthesis transmission model. TDR is predicted to have potentially significant impact on future HIV mortality. It is critical to remain vigilant over transmission of drug-resistant HIV.

Comparison of HIV-1 RNA Measurements Obtained by Using Plasma and Dried Blood Spots in the Automated Abbott Real-Time Viral Load Assay

ABSTRACT Dried blood spots (DBS) may be a promising alternative specimen type to plasma for measuring the viral load (VL) in HIV-infected individuals in resource-limited settings. However, characterization of assay performance using DBS is incomplete. In this prospective study, the VL was measured in parallel using plasma and DBS specimens collected at the same time from 157 HIV-1-infected individuals. DBS were prepared by dispensing 50 μl of blood onto filter paper cards and were stored desiccated at −20°C. Nucleic acid extraction from plasma and DBS was performed automatically using the Abbott m2000sp instrument, and the VL was measured using the RealTime HIV-1 VL assay, which has a lower limit of detection of 40 HIV RNA copies/ml. The correlation between plasma and DBS results was good (R = 0.91; P < 0.001). The mean difference in the VL (DBS minus plasma) was 0.35 log copies (standard deviation [SD], 0.47 log copies). A total of 40 (26%) paired specimens had a difference of >0.5 log copy, and in 12 (7.8%) it was >1 log copy. the VL from DBS was measurable in 95.7% of specimens with a plasma VL of >2.74 log copies (550 HIV RNA copies/ml). In summary, the VL can reliably be measured using DBS with the Abbott RealTime HIV-1 assay. The estimated lower limit of detection of this automated methodology on DBS is 550 copies/ml, a threshold that may be acceptable for periodic VL monitoring in patients on antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings, where early detection of virologic treatment failure is often problematic.