Simon D. Donner

Baselines and degradation of coral reefs in the Northern Line Islands.

Effective conservation requires rigorous baselines of pristine conditions to assess the impacts of human activities and to evaluate the efficacy of management. Most coral reefs are moderately to severely degraded by local human activities such as fishing and pollution as well as global change, hence it is difficult to separate local from global effects. To this end, we surveyed coral reefs on uninhabited atolls in the northern Line Islands to provide a baseline of reef community structure, and on increasingly populated atolls to document changes associated with human activities. We found that top predators and reef-building organisms dominated unpopulated Kingman and Palmyra, while small planktivorous fishes and fleshy algae dominated the populated atolls of Tabuaeran and Kiritimati. Sharks and other top predators overwhelmed the fish assemblages on Kingman and Palmyra so that the biomass pyramid was inverted (top-heavy). In contrast, the biomass pyramid at Tabuaeran and Kiritimati exhibited the typical bottom-heavy pattern. Reefs without people exhibited less coral disease and greater coral recruitment relative to more inhabited reefs. Thus, protection from overfishing and pollution appears to increase the resilience of reef ecosystems to the effects of global warming.

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.

Corn-based ethanol production compromises goal of reducing nitrogen export by the Mississippi River

Corn cultivation in the United States is expected to increase to meet demand for ethanol. Nitrogen leaching from fertilized corn fields to the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River system is a primary cause of the bottom-water hypoxia that develops on the continental shelf of the northern Gulf of Mexico each summer. In this study, we combine agricultural land use scenarios with physically based models of terrestrial and aquatic nitrogen to examine the effect of present and future expansion of corn-based ethanol production on nitrogen export by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers to the Gulf of Mexico. The results show that the increase in corn cultivation required to meet the goal of 15–36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by the year 2022 suggested by a recent U.S. Senate energy policy would increase the annual average flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers by 10–34%. Generating 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol by the year 2022 will increase the odds that annual DIN export exceeds the target set for reducing hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico to >95%. Examination of extreme mitigation options shows that expanding corn-based ethanol production would make the already difficult challenges of reducing nitrogen export to the Gulf of Mexico and the extent of hypoxia practically impossible without large shifts in food production and agricultural management.

MODELING DENITRIFICATION IN TERRESTRIAL AND AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS AT REGIONAL SCALES

Quantifying where, when, and how much denitrification occurs on the basis of measurements alone remains particularly vexing at virtually all spatial scales. As a result, models have become essential tools for integrating current understanding of the processes that control denitrification with measurements of rate-controlling properties so that the permanent losses of N within landscapes can be quantified at watershed and regional scales. In this paper, we describe commonly used approaches for modeling denitrification and N cycling processes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems based on selected examples from the literature. We highlight future needs for developing complementary measurements and models of denitrification. Most of the approaches described here do not explicitly simulate microbial dynamics, but make predictions by representing the environmental conditions where denitrification is expected to occur, based on conceptualizations of the N cycle and empirical data from field and laboratory investigations of the dominant process controls. Models of denitrification in terrestrial ecosystems include generally similar rate-controlling variables, but vary in their complexity of the descriptions of natural and human-related properties of the landscape, reflecting a range of scientific and management perspectives. Models of denitrification in aquatic ecosystems range in complexity from highly detailed mechanistic simulations of the N cycle to simpler source-transport models of aggregate N removal processes estimated with empirical functions, though all estimate aquatic N removal using first-order reaction rate or mass-transfer rate expressions. Both the terrestrial and aquatic modeling approaches considered here generally indicate that denitrification is an important and highly substantial component of the N cycle over large spatial scales. However, the uncertainties of model predictions are large. Future progress will be linked to advances in field measurements, spatial databases, and model structures.

Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event

Episodes of mass coral bleaching around the world in recent decades have been attributed to periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures. In 2005, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic that may have contributed to the strong hurricane season caused widespread coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean. Here, we use two global climate models to evaluate the contribution of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing to the thermal stress that caused the 2005 coral bleaching event. Historical temperature data and simulations for the 1870–2000 period show that the observed warming in the region is unlikely to be due to unforced climate variability alone. Simulation of background climate variability suggests that anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of occurrence of significant thermal stress events for corals in this region by an order of magnitude. Under scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, mass coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean may become a biannual event in 20–30 years. However, if corals and their symbionts can adapt by 1–1.5°C, such mass bleaching events may not begin to recur at potentially harmful intervals until the latter half of the century. The delay could enable more time to alter the path of greenhouse gas emissions, although long-term “committed warming” even after stabilization of atmospheric CO2 levels may still represent an additional long-term threat to corals.

Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios

Background Periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures can lead to mass coral bleaching. Past studies have concluded that anthropogenic climate change may rapidly increase the frequency of these thermal stress events, leading to declines in coral cover, shifts in the composition of corals and other reef-dwelling organisms, and stress on the human populations who depend on coral reef ecosystems for food, income and shoreline protection. The ability of greenhouse gas mitigation to alter the near-term forecast for coral reefs is limited by the time lag between greenhouse gas emissions and the physical climate response. Methodology/Principal Findings This study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the “committed warming” for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the worlds coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p≥0.2 year−1) thermal stress by 2080. An additional “societal” warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business-as-usual emissions trajectory to a 550 ppm CO2 stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the worlds coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5°C would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50–80 years. Conclusions/Significance The results suggest that adaptation – via biological mechanisms, coral community shifts and/or management interventions – could provide time to change the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and possibly avoid the recurrence of harmfully frequent events at the majority (97%) of the worlds coral reefs this century. Without any thermal adaptation, atmospheric CO2 concentrations may need to be stabilized below current levels to avoid the degradation of coral reef ecosystems from frequent thermal stress events.

Evaluating the impacts of land management and climate variability on crop production and nitrate export across the Upper Mississippi Basin

[1] The increased use of nitrogen (N) fertilizers in the Mississippi Basin since the 1950s is partially responsible for an increase in crop production, but also a massive increase in nitrate export by the Mississippi River. We used the IBIS terrestrial ecosystem model, including new maize and soybean submodels, and the HYDRA hydrological transport model to investigate the role of climate variability, land cover and N-fertilizer application on crop yield, N cycling and nitrate export in the Upper Mississippi Basin from 1974– 1994. Simulated annual mean maize and soybean yields were both within 20% of USDA historical estimates in over 80% of the crop-growing counties. There was also strong agreement between simulated and USGS estimated annual nitrate export for the Mississippi River at Clinton, Iowa (r 2 = 0.81), the outlet of the basin, and the Minnesota River at Jordan, Minnesota (r 2 = 0.78). The model also indicated a 30% increase in N-fertilizer application across the basin would have caused only a 4% increase in mean maize yield, but a 53% increase in mean dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) leaching, while a 30% decrease in N-fertilizer application would have caused a 10% decrease in maize yield, but a 37% decrease in DIN leaching. At higher levels of N-fertilizer usage, nitrate export becomes increasingly sensitive to the hydrologic conditions, particularly when there is ample residual N in the soil. Therefore any effort to reduce nitrate export without significantly affecting crop yields would have to account for previous soil-N conditions and climate variability. INDEX TERMS: 1871 Hydrology: Surface water quality; 4805 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Biogeochemical cycles (1615); 4842 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Modeling; 4845 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Nutrients and nutrient cycling;

Historical Temperature Variability Affects Coral Response to Heat Stress

Coral bleaching is the breakdown of symbiosis between coral animal hosts and their dinoflagellate algae symbionts in response to environmental stress. On large spatial scales, heat stress is the most common factor causing bleaching, which is predicted to increase in frequency and severity as the climate warms. There is evidence that the temperature threshold at which bleaching occurs varies with local environmental conditions and background climate conditions. We investigated the influence of past temperature variability on coral susceptibility to bleaching, using the natural gradient in peak temperature variability in the Gilbert Islands, Republic of Kiribati. The spatial pattern in skeletal growth rates and partial mortality scars found in massive Porites sp. across the central and northern islands suggests that corals subject to larger year-to-year fluctuations in maximum ocean temperature were more resistant to a 2004 warm-water event. In addition, a subsequent 2009 warm event had a disproportionately larger impact on those corals from the island with lower historical heat stress, as indicated by lower concentrations of triacylglycerol, a lipid utilized for energy, as well as thinner tissue in those corals. This study indicates that coral reefs in locations with more frequent warm events may be more resilient to future warming, and protection measures may be more effective in these regions.

An evaluation of the effect of recent temperature variability on the prediction of coral bleaching events

Over the past 30 years, warm thermal disturbances have become commonplace on coral reefs worldwide. These periods of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) can lead to coral bleaching, a breakdown of the symbiosis between the host coral and symbiotic dinoflagellates which reside in coral tissue. The onset of bleaching is typically predicted to occur when the SST exceeds a local climatological maximum by 1 degrees C for a month or more. However, recent evidence suggests that the threshold at which bleaching occurs may depend on thermal history. This study uses global SST data sets (HadISST and NOAA AVHRR) and mass coral bleaching reports (from Reefbase) to examine the effect of historical SST variability on the accuracy of bleaching prediction. Two variability-based bleaching prediction methods are developed from global analysis of seasonal and interannual SST variability. The first method employs a local bleaching threshold derived from the historical variability in maximum annual SST to account for spatial variability in past thermal disturbance frequency. The second method uses a different formula to estimate the local climatological maximum to account for the low seasonality of SST in the tropics. The new prediction methods are tested against the common globally fixed threshold method using the observed bleaching reports. The results find that estimating the bleaching threshold from local historical SST variability delivers the highest predictive power, but also a higher rate of Type I errors. The second method has the lowest predictive power globally, though regional analysis suggests that it may be applicable in equatorial regions. The historical data analysis suggests that the bleaching threshold may have appeared to be constant globally because the magnitude of interannual variability in maximum SST is similar for many of the worlds coral reef ecosystems. For example, the results show that a SST anomaly of 1 degrees C is equivalent to 1.73-2.94 standard deviations of the maximum monthly SST for two-thirds of the worlds coral reefs. Coral reefs in the few regions that experience anomalously high interannual SST variability like the equatorial Pacific could prove critical to understanding how coral communities acclimate or adapt to frequent and/or severe thermal disturbances.

Water use by terrestrial ecosystems: temporal variability in rainforest and agricultural contributions to evapotranspiration in Mato Grosso, Brazil

The state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, has experienced rapid land use changes from the expansion of rain-fed agriculture (primarily soybean and pasture). This study presents changes to evapotranspiration contributions from terrestrial ecosystems in Mato Grosso over the 2000?9 period. Instead of focusing on land use change to infer hydrologic change, in this paper we assess hydrologic changes using remote sensing, meteorological and agricultural production data to determine the rainforest, crop and pasture components of total evapotranspiration. Humid tropical rainforest evapotranspiration represented half of the state?s total evapotranspiration in 2000 despite occupying only 40% of the total land area. Annual evapotranspiration fluxes from rainforest declined at a rate of 16.2?km3?y?1 (R2?=?0.82, p-value ?<?0.01) as a result of deforestation between 2000 and 2009, representing a 25% decline in rainforest evapotranspiration since 2000. By 2009, rainforest cover accounted for only 40% of total evapotranspiration. Over the same period, crop evapotranspiration doubled, but this increase was offset by a decline in pasture evapotranspiration. Pasture fluxes were at least five times larger than crop evapotranspiration fluxes in 2000?9, with increases spatially focused at the agricultural frontier. The results highlight the expanding appropriation of soil moisture stocks for use in Mato Grosso?s rain-fed agroecosystems.