Simon Gascoin

The AMMA Land Surface Model Intercomparison Project (ALMIP)

The rainfall over West Africa has been characterized by extreme variability in the last half-century, with prolonged droughts resulting in humanitarian crises. There is, therefore, an urgent need to better understand and predict the West African monsoon (WAM), because social stability in this region depends to a large degree on water resources. The economies are primarily agrarian, and there are issues related to food security and health. In particular, there is a need to better understand land–atmosphere and hydrological processes over West Africa because of their potential feedbacks with the WAM. This is being addressed through a multiscale modeling approach using an ensemble of land surface models that rely on dedicated satellite-based forcing and land surface parameter products, and data from the African Multidisciplinary Monsoon Analysis (AMMA) observational field campaigns. The AMMA land surface model (LSM) Intercomparison Project (ALMIP) offline, multimodel simulations comprise the equivalent of a multimodel reanalysis product. They currently represent the best estimate of the land surface processes over West Africa from 2004 to 2007. An overview of model intercomparison and evaluation is presented. The far-reaching goal of this effort is to obtain better understanding and prediction of the WAM and the feedbacks with the surface. This can be used to improve water management and agricultural practices over this region.

Projected impacts of climate change on farmers' extraction of groundwater from crystalline aquifers in South India

Local groundwater levels in South India are falling alarmingly. In the semi-arid crystalline Deccan plateau area, agricultural production relies on groundwater resources. Downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) data are used to force a spatially distributed agro-hydrological model in order to evaluate Climate Change (CC) effects on local groundwater extraction (GWE). The slight increase of precipitation may alleviate current groundwater depletion on average, despite the increased evaporation due to warming. Nevertheless, projected climatic extremes create worse GWE shortages than for present climate. Local conditions may lead to opposing impacts on GWE, from increases to decreases (+/−20 mm/year), for a given spatially homogeneous CC forcing. Areas vulnerable to CC in terms of irrigation apportionment are thus identified. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for local characteristics (water harvesting systems and maximal aquifer capacity versus GWE) in developing measures to cope with CC impacts in the South Indian region.

Remote Sensing of Water Resources in Semi-Arid Mediterranean Areas: the joint international laboratory TREMA

Monitoring of water resources and a better understanding of the eco-hydrological processes governing their dynamics are necessary to anticipate and develop measures to adapt to climate and water-use changes. Focusing on this aim, a research project carried out within the framework of French–Moroccan cooperation demonstrated how remote sensing can help improve the monitoring and modelling of water resources in semi-arid Mediterranean regions. The study area is the Tensift Basin located near Marrakech (Morocco) – a typical Southern Mediterranean catchment with water production in the mountains and downstream consumption mainly driven by agriculture. Following a description of the institutional context and the experimental network, the main recent research results are presented: (1) methodological development for the retrieval of key components of the water cycle in a snow-covered area from remote-sensing imagery (disaggregated soil moisture from soil moisture and ocean salinity) at the kilometre scale, based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS); (2) the use of remote-sensing products together with land-surface modelling for the monitoring of evapotranspiration; and (3) phenomenological modelling based only on time series of remote-sensing data with application to forecasting of cereal yields. Finally, the issue of transfer of research results is also addressed through two remote sensing-based tools developed together with the project partners involved in water management and irrigation planning.

Multi-model comparison of a major flood in the groundwater-fed basin of the Somme River (France)

The Somme River Basin is located above a chalk aquifer and the discharge of the somme River is highly influenced by groundwater inflow (90% of river discharge is baseflow). In 2001, the Somme River Basin suffered from a major flood causing damages estimated to 100 million euro (Deneux and Martin , 2001). The purpose of the present research is to evaluate the ability of four hydrologic models to reproduce flood events in the Somme River Basin over an 18-year period, by comparison with observed river discharge and piezometric level as well as satellite-derived extents of flooded area. The models used differ in their computation of surface water budget and in their representation of saturated and unsaturated zones. One model needed structural modification to be able to accurately simulate the riverflows of the Somme river. The models obtained fair to good simulations of the observed piezometric levels, but they all overestimate the piezometric level after flooding, possibly because of a simplistic representation of deep unsaturated flow. Models differ in their annual partition of the infiltration of water within the root zone (mostly driven by simulated evapotranspiration), but these differences are attenuated by water transfers within the saturated and unsaturated zone. As a consequence, the inter-model dispersion of the computed annual baseflow is reduced. The aquifer overflow areas simulated during flooding compare well with local data and satellite images. The models showed that this overflow occurs almost every year in the same areas (in floodplain), and that Correspondence to: F. Habets florence.habets@mines-paristech.fr the flooding of 2001 was characterized by an increase in the quantity of the overflow and not much by a spreading of the overflow areas. Inconsistencies between river discharge and piezometric levels suggest that further investigation are needed to estimate the relative influence of unsaturated and saturated zones on the hydrodynamics of the Somme River Basin.

On the Use of Hydrological Models and Satellite Data to Study the Water Budget of River Basins Affected by Human Activities: Examples from the Garonne Basin of France

Natural and anthropogenic forcing factors and their changes significantly impact water resources in many river basins around the world. Information on such changes can be derived from fine scale in situ and satellite observations, used in combination with hydrological models. The latter need to account for hydrological changes caused by human activities to correctly estimate the actual water resource. In this study, we consider the catchment area of the Garonne river (in France) to investigate the capabilities of space-based observations and up-to-date hydrological modeling in estimating water resources of a river basin modified by human activities and a changing climate. Using the ISBA–MODCOU and SWAT hydrological models, we find that the water resources of the Garonne basin display a negative climate trend since 1960. The snow component of the two models is validated using the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer snow cover extent climatology. Crop sowing dates based on remote sensing studies are also considered in the validation procedure. Use of this dataset improves the simulated evapotranspiration and river discharge amounts when compared to conventional data. Finally, we investigate the benefit of using the MAELIA multi-agent model that accounts for a realistic agricultural and management scenario. Among other results, we find that changes in crop systems have significant impacts on water uptake for agriculture. This work constitutes a basis for the construction of a future modeling framework of the sociological and hydrological system of the Garonne river region.

Introducing Hysteresis in Snow Depletion Curves to Improve the Water Budget of a Land Surface Model in an Alpine Catchment

AbstractThe Durance watershed (14 000 km2), located in the French Alps, generates 10% of French hydropower and provides drinking water to 3 million people. The Catchment land surface model (CLSM), a distributed land surface model (LSM) with a multilayer, physically based snow model, has been applied in the upstream part of this watershed, where snowfall accounts for 50% of the precipitation. The CLSM subdivides the upper Durance watershed, where elevations range from 800 to 4000 m within 3580 km2, into elementary catchments with an average area of 500 km2. The authors first show the difference between the dynamics of the accumulation and ablation of the snow cover using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images and snow-depth measurements. The extent of snow cover increases faster during accumulation than during ablation because melting occurs at preferential locations. This difference corresponds to the presence of a hysteresis in the snow-cover depletion curve of these catchments, and...

Dependence of bare soil albedo on soil moisture on the moraine of the Zongo glacier (Bolivia): Implications for land surface modeling

Although the dependence of bare soil albedo on soil moisture is a familiar observation, it is not commonly represented in climate modeling. We investigate the impact of this dependence in a land surface model (LSM) using meteorological data collected on the moraine of a Bolivian glacier. The relationship which is implemented to simulate albedo variations with soil moisture is deduced from a previous field study. The model is set up at the scale of the meteorological station plot to have the most accurate control on the model calibration and validation. A snow parameter is modified to account for the fact that the model was designed for larger cell sizes. Water content measurements are used to calibrate the parameter controlling the vertical water fluxes within the soil surface layer. This allows us to enhance the models ability to capture the fast changes in surface soil moisture. The comparison of simulated ground heat flux and outgoing longwave radiations with observations shows that the model performs well despite the fact that all other parameters are set a priori based on local properties of the surface. The results show that the dependence of bare soil albedo on soil moisture, which causes an increase in the net radiation, importantly influences the turbulent fluxes at the annual and monthly timescales. The mean annual evaporation is increased by 12%. As a consequence, this parameterization modifies the computed runoff, which is reduced by more than 5% during the rainy season.

Evaluation of MODIS Albedo Product over Ice Caps in Iceland and Impact of Volcanic Eruptions on Their Albedo

Albedo is a key variable in the response of glaciers to climate. In Iceland, large albedo variations of the ice caps may be caused by the deposition of volcanic ash (tephra). Sparse in situ measurements are insufficient to characterize the spatial variation of albedo over the ice caps due to their large size. Here we evaluated the latest MCD43 MODIS albedo product (collection 6) to monitor albedo changes over the Icelandic ice caps using albedo measurements from ten automatic weather stations on Vatnajokull and Langjokull. Furthermore, we examined the influence of the albedo variability within MODIS pixels by comparing the results with a collection of Landsat scenes. The results indicate a good ability of the MODIS product to characterize the seasonal and interannual albedo changes with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.47 to 0.90 (median 0.84) and small biases ranging from −0.07 to 0.09. The root-mean square errors (RMSE) ranging from 0.08 to 0.21, are larger than that from previous studies, but we did not discard the retrievals flagged as bad quality to maximize the amount of observations given the frequent cloud obstruction in Iceland. We found a positive but non-significant relationship between the RMSE and the subpixel variability as indicated by the standard deviation of the Landsat albedo within a MODIS pixel (R = 0.48). The summer albedo maps and time series computed from the MODIS product show that the albedo decreased significantly after the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull and 2011 Grimsvotn eruptions on all the main ice caps except the northernmost Drangajokull. A strong reduction of the summer albedo by up to 0.6 is observed over large regions of the accumulation areas. These data can be assimilated in an energy and mass balance model to better understand the relative influence of the volcanic and climate forcing to the ongoing mass losses of Icelandic ice caps.

Massive collapse of two glaciers in western Tibet in 2016 after surge-like instability

Surges and glacier avalanches are expressions of glacier instability, and among the most dramatic phenomena in the mountain cryosphere. Until now, the catastrophic collapse of a glacier, combining the large volume of surges and mobility of ice avalanches, has been reported only for the 2002 130 × 106 m3 detachment of Kolka Glacier (Caucasus Mountains), which has been considered a globally singular event. Here, we report on the similar detachment of the entire lower parts of two adjacent glaciers in western Tibet in July and September 2016, leading to an unprecedented pair of giant low-angle ice avalanches with volumes of 68 ± 2 × 106 m3 and 83 ± 2 × 106 m3. On the basis of satellite remote sensing, numerical modelling and field investigations, we find that the twin collapses were caused by climate- and weather-driven external forcing, acting on specific polythermal and soft-bed glacier properties. These factors converged to produce surge-like enhancement of driving stresses and massively reduced basal friction connected to subglacial water and fine-grained bed lithology, to eventually exceed collapse thresholds in resisting forces of the tongues frozen to their bed. Our findings show that large catastrophic instabilities of low-angle glaciers can happen under rare circumstances without historical precedent.Two catastrophic glacier collapse events in western Tibet in 2016 were caused by a convergence of weather and glacier-bed conditions, according to an analysis of observations and modelling.

Meteorological Interpretation of Orographic Precipitation Gradients along an Andes West Slope Basin at 30°S (Elqui Valley, Chile)

AbstractTo better forecast streamflow and water resource availability, it is important to have an understanding of the meteorological drivers of the orographic precipitation gradient (OPG), especially critical in semiarid mountainous areas. Although forced ascent over topography typically results in precipitation increasing with altitude (positive OPGs), mean annual OPGs and especially OPGs associated with individual storms can change widely in magnitude and even sign. Precipitation measurements from the Elqui Valley in the semiarid Andes of Chile (30°S) reveal a mean annual OPG of 6.3 mm km−1 (millimeters of precipitation over kilometers in elevation) ranging from −42 to 52 mm km−1 for individual storms over the last 35 years (1979–2013). Reanalysis data and precipitation measurements are used to characterize the observed OPG in this region in relation with their synoptic-scale flow. It is found that the Froude number correlates positively with the OPG, reflecting stronger zonal winds and less static sta...