Simon Huston

A “family of cycles” – major and auxiliary business cycles

Purpose - – The paper aims to discuss the major and auxiliary types of cycles found in the literature. Design/methodology/approach - – The existence of cycles within economy and its sub-sectors has been studied for a number of years. In the wake of the recent cyclical downturn, interest in cycles has increased. To mitigate future risks, scholars and investors seek new insights for a better understanding of the cyclical phenomenon. The paper presents systematic review of the existing copious cyclical literature. It then discusses general characteristics and the key forces that produce these cycles. Findings - – The study finds four major and eight auxiliary cycles. It suggests that each cycle has its own distinct empirical periodicity and theoretical underpinnings. The longer the cycles are the greater controversy which surrounds them. Practical implications - – Cycles are monumental to a proper understanding of complex property market dynamics. Their existence implies that economies, whilst not deterministic, have a rhythm. Cyclical awareness can therefore advance property market participants. Originality/value - – The paper uncovers four major and eight auxiliary types of cycles and argues their importance.

Positive and Negative Factors for Transit Oriented Development: Case Studies from Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney

Development of Transit Oriented Development (TOD) precincts in the Australian context has been hindered by several obstacles. The main challenges to be addressed are land amalgamation issues around train stations and the lack of governance arrangements to facilitate the delivery of TODs. This article identifies the main factors contributing to the effective delivery of three Australian TODs. The article is based on the analysis of case studies in Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. Based on semi-directed interviews with urban stakeholders (planners at the council level and state level, and developers) for each case study and on the analysis of official planning documents, we analyse the governance arrangements, the planning frameworks and the financial mechanisms that have facilitated the delivery of the case study TODs. We also survey stakeholders to assess the general TOD delivery process and outcomes on different criteria, to better inform TOD policymaking. We find that large sites in single ownership and special state government measures to facilitate development approvals have been critical factors in TOD success.

ARIMA modelling of Lithuanian house price index

Purpose - – This paper aims to investigate Lithuanian house price changes. Its twin motivations are the importance of information on future house price movements to sector stakeholders and the limited number of related Lithuanian property market studies. Design/methodology/approach - – The study employs ARIMA modelling approach. It assesses whether past is a good predictor of the future. It then examines issues relating to an application of this univariate time-series modelling technique in a forecasting context. Findings - – As the results of the study suggest, ARIMA is a useful technique to assess broad market price changes. Government and central bank can use ARIMA modelling approach to forecast national house price inflation. Developers can employ this methodology to drive successful house-building programme. Investor can incorporate forecasts from ARIMA models into investment strategy for timing purposes. Research limitations/implications - – Certainly, there are number of limitations attached to this particular modelling approach. Firm predictions about house price movements are also a challenge, as well as more research needs to be done in establishing a dynamic interrelationship between macro variables and the Lithuanian housing market. Originality/value - – Although the research focused on Lithuania, the findings extend to global housing market. ARIMA house price modelling provides insights for a spectrum of stakeholders. The use of this modelling approach can be employed to improve monetary policy oversight, facilitate planning for infrastructure or social housing as a countercyclical policy and mitigate risk for investors. What is more, a greater appreciation of Lithuania housing market can act as a bellwether for real estate markets in other trade-exposed small country economies.

Influence of urban design master plans on property sub-markets: Two case studies in Brisbane

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to consider the impact of urban design master plan projects in the Australian context of Brisbane. It first reviewed the general ramifications of urban design projects on property markets. The local impacts of two major projects were then analysed and compared. A limited statistical analysis was conducted to investigate whether local price growth could be attributed to the projects or resulted from generally buoyant market conditions.Design/methodology/approach – The paper adopted a largely descriptive approach. It first reviewed the theoretical outcomes urban design projects should deliver. It then looked at the specific details of two distinct urban design projects in Brisbane and descriptively assessed their impact on adjacent local housing markets. It then compared relative aggregated location price growth to isolate discernable project price effects. Finally, the paper anecdotally selected some master designed properties and considered whether their prices were ...

Bohemianism and Urban Regeneration: A Structured Literature Review and Compte Rendu

Despite a burgeoning literature, the role of bohemians in the urban milieu and in initiatives toward regeneration remains contested. As a first step toward later modeling and application, we present a thoroughgoing literature review, a short commentary on bohemian phenomena, and suggested readings. Since qualitative sources dominate the field, the review is structured rather than fully systematic in the scientific sense. After discarding innumerable irrelevant and incidental papers, three strands remained for subsequent analysis: “bohemian,” “bohemian + creative-city,” and “smart regeneration.” The first is static or historically contextualized, situated best in the humanities. The last two strands are dynamic and dissect, descriptively or analytically, elements of bohemianism relevant to the urban scene. Wherever and whenever they emerge, radical bohemian artists test existing limits or incite transformative action.

Urban regeneration: An Australian case study insights for cities under growth pressure

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to review sustainable planning literature and investigate a major development in an Australian regional city, looking for broad sustainable insights to improve urban growth management. Design/methodology/approach - – First, the authors sketched the backdrop to Ipswich and looked for the drivers propelling its rapid growth. They then generated a sustainability framework from the urban regeneration literature. In the empirical phase, they analysed a major development – the Findings - – First, each city’s situation is unique, so the authors proffer no simplistic development formula. Internally, cities, including Ipswich, are spatially fragmented. Second, urban regeneration extends temporally and spatially beyond the project site boundaries or deadlines. Diminished property-driven regeneration neglects the social dimensions to sustainable housing or relegates it to an afterthought, but community participation is insufficient. Government needs to seed or drive (directly or via incentives) substantive social transformation. Projects supported with credible community social development are less risky, but, in competing for investment funds, local government can rush approve unsuitable projects. Research limitations/implications - – The analysis focused on the planning and urban design aspects of the project. Only limited demographic, economic and social analyses were conducted, and the study would also benefit from interviews with a broader sample of experts. Practical implications - – Sustainable urban regeneration needs to consider not only the unique mix of regional growth drivers and constraints, but also specific local precinct characteristics. Intelligently configured community consultation should inform but not dilute design leadership. Originality/value - – This work investigates appropriate urban responses to growth pressure for sustainable outcomes in fast-growing regional cities.

Knowledge city and urban economic resilience

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the limitations and potential usefulness of a “knowledge city” concept as diversification vehicle for property investors.Design/methodology/approach – The paper first dissects the “knowledge city” concept and then investigates whether it inoculates against economic turbulence as measured by growth and jobs recovery. The paper also looks at the protection offered by middle class population growth.Findings – The idea of the “knowledge city” comes from earlier economic constructs but concentrated at the urban scale. There are two versions – a technical and one enriched with institutional and social dimensions. The limited analysis of selective secondary data suggests that “knowledge city” and strong middle class population growth provide some protection from economic and, presumably, property market instability.Research limitations/implications – Statistical limitations include arbitrary sample frames; lack of data and unclear spatial resolution, short ti...

Property market modelling and forecasting: simple vs complex models

Purpose - – The commercial property market is complex, but the literature suggests that simple models can forecast it. To confirm the claim, the purpose of this paper is to assess a set of models to forecast UK commercial property market. Design/methodology/approach - – The employs five modelling techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), ARIMA with a vector of an explanatory variable(s) (ARIMAX), Simple Regression (SR), Multiple Regression, and Vector Autoregression (VAR) to model IPD UK All Property Rents Index. The Bank Rate, Construction Orders, Employment, Expenditure, FTSE AS Index, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Inflation are all explanatory variables selected for the research. Findings - – The modelling results confirm that increased model complexity does not necessarily yield greater forecasting accuracy. The analysis shows that although the more complex VAR specification is amongst the best fitting models, its accuracy in producing out-of-sample forecasts is poorer than of some less complex specifications. The average Theil’s Practical implications - – The paper calls analysts to make forecasts more user-friendly, which are easy to use or understand, and for researchers to pay greater attention to the development and improvement of simpler forecasting techniques or simplification of more complex structures. Originality/value - – The paper addresses the issue of complexity in modelling commercial property market. It advocates for simplicity in modelling and forecasting.

Two Centuries of Farmland Prices in England

The dissemination of robust real estate data helps to improve market efficiency. Sound investment analysis requires long series to form a long-term view but, whilst this has been available for the commercial sector, the same has not been true for agricultural land. Comparable series on the long-term market position of the farmland in England are fragmented. The current paper navigates the methodological complexities involved in rectifying the land price information deficiency. The study employs chain-linking approach to construct a long-term farmland series for England. It then adjusts series for inflation to examine real land market returns. The constructed 200 year series of English farm land prices performance tightens analysis and enhances decision making.

Disease in Eldorado

Some consider the Emirate of Dubai, within the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a modern Eldorado and blueprint for development. Others question its governance, sustainability and labour practices. Sober judgement of the alternate Dubai narratives stumbles on definitional ambiguities, urban perspective intractability and empirical uncertainty. Definitions of governance and sustainability are particularly contested and presumptions of a universal city blueprint are considered alchemy. Nevertheless, a metaphorical Eldorado is a useful starting point for structured discussion. Acknowledging complexity and data limitations, the paper sketches some likely constituents of a modern Eldorado and then compares it with conditions in the oriental former boomtown. Tentative preliminary indications suggest that Dubai, as many other cities, is overbuilt and unhealthy. Notwithstanding some phantasmagorical projects and scattered architectural icons, disease manifests itself in governance concerns, economic volatility, urban sprawl and social fragmentation. Vectors for disease are excessive regional oil liquidity, constitutional constraints, a narrow commercial focus and institutional limitations. The result: impressive growth is driven by factor accumulation and undermined by overcrowding and pollution. Reforms to the current quasi-feudal modus operandi challenge powerful vested interests in the mercantile Emirate but the global financial crisis could herald beneficial reform.