Simon J. Marsland

The Max-Planck-Institute global ocean/sea ice model with orthogonal curvilinear coordinates

Abstract The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation model has undergone significant development in recent years. Most notable is the treatment of horizontal discretisation which has undergone transition from a staggered E-grid to an orthogonal curvilinear C-grid. The treatment of subgridscale mixing has been improved by the inclusion of a new formulation of bottom boundary layer (BBL) slope convection, an isopycnal diffusion scheme, and a Gent and McWilliams style eddy-induced mixing parameterisation. The model setup described here has a north pole over Greenland and a south pole on the coast of the Weddell Sea. This gives relatively high resolution in the sinking regions associated with the thermohaline circulation. Results are presented from a 450 year climatologically forced integration. The forcing is a product of the German Ocean Model Intercomparison Project and is derived from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis. The main emphasis is on the model’s representation of key quantities that are easily associated with the ocean’s role in the global climate system. The global and Atlantic northward poleward heat transports have peaks of 1.43 and 0.84 PW, at 18° and 21° N respectively. The Atlantic meridional overturning streamfunction has a peak of 15.7 Sv in the North Atlantic and an outflow of 11.9 Sv at 30° S. Comparison with a simulation excluding BBL shows that the scheme is responsible for up to a 25% increase in North Atlantic heat transport, with significant improvement of the depths of convection in the Greenland, Labrador and Irminger Seas. Despite the improvements, comparison with observations shows the heat transport still to be too weak. Other outstanding problems include an incorrect Gulf Stream pathway, a too strong Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and a too weak renewal of Antarctic Intermediate Water. Nevertheless, the model has been coupled to the atmospheric GCM ECHAM5 and run successfully for over 250 years without any surface flux corrections.

Reconstructing, Monitoring, and Predicting Multidecadal-Scale Changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation with Sea Surface Temperature

Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic indicate the existence of strong multidecadal variability with a unique spatial structure. It is shown by means of a new global climate model, which does not employ flux adjustments, that the multidecadal SST variability is closely related to variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The close correspondence between the North Atlantic SST and THC variabilities allows, in conjunction with the dynamical inertia of the THC, for the prediction of the slowly varying component of the North Atlantic climate system. It is shown additionally that past variations of the North Atlantic THC can be reconstructed from a simple North Atlantic SST index and that future, anthropogenically forced changes in the THC can be easily monitored by observing SSTs. The latter is confirmed by another state-ofthe-art global climate model. Finally, the strong multidecadal variability may mask an anthropogenic signal in the North Atlantic for some decades.

The ACCESS coupled model: description, control climate and evaluation

4OASIS3.2–5 coupling framework. The primary goal of the ACCESS-CM development is to provide the Australian climate community with a new generation fully coupled climate model for climate research, and to participate in phase five of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). This paper describes the ACCESS-CM framework and components, and presents the control climates from two versions of the ACCESS-CM, ACCESS1.0 and ACCESS1.3, together with some fields from the 20 th century historical experiments, as part of model evaluation. While sharing the same ocean sea-ice model (except different setups for a few parameters), ACCESS1.0 and ACCESS1.3 differ from each other in their atmospheric and land surface components: the former is configured with the UK Met Office HadGEM2 (r1.1) atmospheric physics and the Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme land surface model version 2, and the latter with atmospheric physics similar to the UK Met Office Global Atmosphere 1.0 includ ing modifications performed at CAWCR and the CSIRO Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange land surface model version 1.8. The global average annual mean surface air temperature across the 500-year preindustrial control integrations show a warming drift of 0.35 °C in ACCESS1.0 and 0.04 °C in ACCESS1.3. The overall skills of ACCESS-CM in simulating a set of key climatic fields both globally and over Australia significantly surpass those from the preceding CSIRO Mk3.5 model delivered to the previous coupled model inter-comparison. However, ACCESS-CM, like other CMIP5 models, has deficiencies in various as pects, and these are also discussed.

Modeling the basal melting and marine ice accretion of the Amery Ice Shelf

The basal mass balance of the Amery Ice Shelf (AIS) in East Antarctica is investigated using a numerical ocean model. The main improvements of this model over previous studies are the inclusion of frazil formation and dynamics, tides and the use of the latest estimate of the sub-ice-shelf cavity geometry. The model produces a net basal melt rate of 45.6 Gt year�1 (0.74 m ice year�1) which is in good agreement with reviewed observations. The melting at the base of the ice shelf is primarily due to interaction with High Salinity Shelf Water created from the surface sea-ice formation in winter. The temperature difference between the coldest waters created in the open ocean and the in situ freezing point of ocean water in contact with the deepest part of the AIS drives a melt rate that can exceed 30 m of ice year�1. The inclusion of frazil dynamics is shown to be important for both melting and marine ice accretion (refreezing). Frazil initially forms in the supercooled water layer adjacent to the base of the ice shelf. The net accretion of marine ice is 5.3 Gt year�1, comprised of 3.7 Gt year�1 of frazil accretion and 1.6 Gt year�1 of direct basal refreezing.

On the sensitivity of Southern Ocean sea ice to the surface freshwater flux: A model study

The Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation model is used to study the response of the Southern Oceans vertical stability and sea ice cover to variations in the prescribed surface freshwater flux (SFWF). The model is used to investigate the response of the coupled ocean-sea ice system to a number of SFWF climatologies and to changes in the mean surface air temperature of the Southern Hemisphere. The modeled sea ice cover is very sensitive to the SFWF. In particular, a large-scale open ocean polynya develops in the Weddell Sea when the SFWF in that region falls below a critical value of ∼35 cm yr−1. In terms of the oceanic heat flux (OHF) to the base of the sea ice, decreasing the SFWF by 10 cm yr−1 has roughly the same effect as an increase of 2°C in the surface air temperature, with both of these changes acting to increase the Southern Oceans mean annual OHF of ∼23 W m−2 by ∼10%. Coupled ocean-atmosphere models of transient climate change due to greenhouse warming predict an increase in both surface air temperature and SFWF over the Southern Ocean sea ice zone. Because the sensitivity of the sea ice extent and volume, and of the OHF, to increasing surface air temperature is opposite to that of increasing SFWF, these effects can be expected, at least partially, to offset each other.

Antarctic coastal polynya response to climate change

Sensitivity of sea ice formation and dense shelf water production to perturbations of air temperature, precipitation, and wind stress in an important Antarctic coastal polynya system is investigated. Shelf water formation in the Mertz Glacier Polynya is a major source of Adelie Land Bottom Water. Coupled ocean and sea ice model simulations for 1996–1999 span a transitional period of the system: The 1996–1997 strong polynya state is characterized by high sea ice growth and export, ocean to atmosphere heat flux, shelf water density, and rate of dense water export; in the 1998–1999 weak polynya state all these quantities are greatly reduced. The 1990s interannual variability in air temperature and precipitation is of similar magnitude to future increases as projected for the Southern Ocean by the IPCC assessment. We model the polynya with perturbed climate change forcing and find that the system shows a reduction in shelf water export in both the strong/weak modes. Overall, the dense water export is reduced by 40% for a 2°C surface warming, and by 33% for a 20 cm a−1 precipitation increase. In the weak polynya state that is more likely in future climate, shelf water export is reduced by 81% for the warming and by 65% for the freshening. The reduction in dense shelf water export implies a corresponding reduction in Antarctic Bottom Water formation.

The ACCESS coupled model: documentation of core CMIP5 simulations and initial results

Martin Dix1, Peter Vohralik2, Daohua Bi1, Harun Rashid1, Simon Marsland1, Siobhan O’Farrell1, Petteri Uotila1, Tony Hirst1, Eva Kowalczyk1, Arnold Sullivan1, Hailin Yan1, Charmaine Franklin1, Zhian Sun3, Ian Watterson1, Mark Collier1, Julie Noonan1, Leon Rotstayn1, Lauren Stevens1, Peter Uhe1 and Kamal Puri3 1Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), a partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia 2CSIRO Materials Science and Engineering, Australia 3CAWCR/Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration [NA15OAR4310239]; Netherlands Earth System Science Center (NESSC); Polar Program of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO); Regional and Global Climate Modelling Program (RGCM) of the U.S. Department of Energys Office of Science (BER) [DE-FC02-97ER62402]; Office of Science of the U.S. Department of Energy; ArCS; ICA-RUS; Natural Environment Research Council

Evaluation of ACCESS climate model ocean diagnostics in CMIP5 simulations

Global and regional diagnostics are used to evaluate the ocean performance of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator coupled model (ACCESS-CM) contributions to the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Two versions of ACCESS-CM have been submitted to CMIP; namely CSIRO-BOM ACCESS1.0 and CSIRO-BOM ACCESS1.3. Results from six of the core CMIP5 experiments (piControl, historical, rcp45, rcp85, 1pctCO2, and abrupt4xCO2) are evaluated for each of the two ACCESS-CM model versions. Overall, both model versions exhibit a reasonable and stable representation of key diagnostics of ocean climate performance in the pre-industrial control simulations, including a meridional overturning circulation with North Atlantic Deep Water maxima in the range 22–24 Sv, and a poleward heat transport maximum of around 1.5 PW. For the projected climate change scenarios considered the ACCESS-CM results are in reasonable agreement with responses found in other CMIP models, with the familiar ocean warming, and reduction in strength of meridional overturning and poleward heat transport. Drifts in the control simulations of both global ocean salinity and global sea-level are opposite in sign for ACCESS1.0 and ACCESS1.3, suggesting problems exist in the closure of the hydrological cycle. The simulation of ocean climate change over the historical period shows a weak response compared to observations, which manifests as a late response of ocean warming and sea level rise starting around 1990 in the model, compared to the mid 1960s in observations. Further historical simulations are underway to ascertain if this late response in ACCESS is a robust model feature, or just low frequency variability. If the weak response over the historical period proves robust, the likely cause is a too strong cooling from atmospheric aerosols. Broadening the set of experiments to further investigate the relative warming response of the ACCESS-CM to greenhouse gases compared to the cooling response to aerosols is underway, and preliminary results do suggest that the cooling due to aerosols is strong in the historical simulations.

ACCESS-OM: the Ocean and Sea ice Core of the ACCESS Coupled Model

Daohua Bi1, Simon J. Marsland1, Petteri Uotila1, Siobhan O’Farrell1, Russell Fiedler2, Arnold Sullivan1, Stephen M. Griffies3, Xiaobing Zhou4, and Anthony C. Hirst1 1 CAWCR/CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Australia 2 CAWCR/CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Australia 3 NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA 4 CAWCR/Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia