Simon J. Shepherd

Asymptotic limits in peak envelope power reduction by redundant coding in orthogonal frequency-division multiplex modulation

This paper uses some computational results to show that the peak envelope power (PEP) of orthogonal frequency-division multiplex (OFDM) waveforms can be reduced very substantially by coding to select only those messages with low peak factor as valid codewords in the scheme. It is shown that the asymptotic limit of the PEP is between two and three, and that only four bits of redundancy are necessary to limit the PEP to within 10% of this optimum value as the number of carriers becomes large.

Bactericidal action of positive and negative ions in air

BackgroundIn recent years there has been renewed interest in the use of air ionisers to control of the spread of airborne infection. One characteristic of air ions which has been widely reported is their apparent biocidal action. However, whilst the body of evidence suggests a biocidal effect in the presence of air ions the physical and biological mechanisms involved remain unclear. In particular, it is not clear which of several possible mechanisms of electrical origin (i.e. the action of the ions, the production of ozone, or the action of the electric field) are responsible for cell death. A study was therefore undertaken to clarify this issue and to determine the physical mechanisms associated with microbial cell death.ResultsIn the study seven bacterial species (Staphylococcus aureus, Mycobacterium parafortuitum, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumanii, Burkholderia cenocepacia, Bacillus subtilis and Serratia marcescens) were exposed to both positive and negative ions in the presence of air. In order to distinguish between effects arising from: (i) the action of the air ions; (ii) the action of the electric field, and (iii) the action of ozone, two interventions were made. The first intervention involved placing a thin mica sheet between the ionisation source and the bacteria, directly over the agar plates. This intervention, while leaving the electric field unaltered, prevented the air ions from reaching the microbial samples. In addition, the mica plate prevented ozone produced from reaching the bacteria. The second intervention involved placing an earthed wire mesh directly above the agar plates. This prevented both the electric field and the air ions from impacting on the bacteria, while allowing any ozone present to reach the agar plate. With the exception of Mycobacterium parafortuitum, the principal cause of cell death amongst the bacteria studied was exposure to ozone, with electroporation playing a secondary role. However in the case of Mycobacterium parafortuitum, electroporation resulting from exposure to the electric field appears to have been the principal cause of cell inactivation.ConclusionThe results of the study suggest that the bactericidal action attributed to negative air ions by previous researchers may have been overestimated.

Increasing the frequency of hand washing by healthcare workers does not lead to commensurate reductions in staphylococcal infection in a hospital ward

BackgroundHand hygiene is generally considered to be the most important measure that can be applied to prevent the spread of healthcare-associated infection (HAI). Continuous emphasis on this intervention has lead to the widespread opinion that HAI rates can be greatly reduced by increased hand hygiene compliance alone. However, this assumes that the effectiveness of hand hygiene is not constrained by other factors and that improved compliance in excess of a given level, in itself, will result in a commensurate reduction in the incidence of HAI. However, several researchers have found the law of diminishing returns to apply to hand hygiene, with the greatest benefits occurring in the first 20% or so of compliance, and others have demonstrated that poor cohorting of nursing staff profoundly influences the effectiveness of hand hygiene measures. Collectively, these findings raise intriguing questions about the extent to which increasing compliance alone can further reduce rates of HAI.MethodsIn order to investigate these issues further, we constructed a deterministic Ross-Macdonald model and applied it to a hypothetical general medical ward. In this model the transmission of staphylococcal infection was assumed to occur after contact with the transiently colonized hands of HCWs, who, in turn, acquire contamination only by touching colonized patients. The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of imperfect hand cleansing on the transmission of staphylococcal infection and to identify, whether there is a limit, above which further hand hygiene compliance is unlikely to be of benefit.ResultsThe model demonstrated that if transmission is solely via the hands of HCWs, it should, under most circumstances, be possible to prevent outbreaks of staphylococcal infection from occurring at a hand cleansing frequencies < 50%, even with imperfect hand hygiene. The analysis also indicated that the relationship between hand cleansing efficacy and frequency is not linear – as efficacy decreases, so the hand cleansing frequency required to ensure R0 < 1 increases disproportionately.ConclusionAlthough our study confirmed hand hygiene to be an effective control measure, it demonstrated that the law of diminishing returns applies, with the greatest benefit derived from the first 20% or so of compliance. Indeed, our analysis suggests that there is little benefit to be accrued from very high levels of hand cleansing and that in most situations compliance > 40% should be enough to prevent outbreaks of staphylococcal infection occurring, if transmission is solely via the hands of HCWs. Furthermore we identified a non-linear relationship between hand cleansing efficacy and frequency, suggesting that it is important to maximise the efficacy of the hand cleansing process.

Assessment of cerebral venous return by a novel plethysmography method

BACKGROUND Magnetic resonance imaging and echo color Doppler (ECD) scan techniques do not accurately assess the cerebral venous return. This generated considerable scientific controversy linked with the diagnosis of a vascular syndrome known as chronic cerebrospinal venous insufficiency (CCSVI) characterized by restricted venous outflow from the brain. The purpose of this study was to assess the cerebral venous return in relation to the change in position by means of a novel cervical plethysmography method. METHODS This was a single-center, cross-sectional, blinded case-control study conducted at the Vascular Diseases Center, University of Ferrara, Italy. The study involved 40 healthy controls (HCs; 18 women and 22 men) with a mean age of 41.5 ± 14.4 years, and 44 patients with multiple sclerosis (MS; 25 women and 19 men) with a mean age of 41.0 ± 12.1 years. All participants were previously scanned using ECD sonography, and further subset in HC (CCSVI negative at ECD) and CCSVI groups. Subjects blindly underwent cervical plethysmography, tipping them from the upright (90°) to supine position (0°) in a chair. Once the blood volume stabilized, they were returned to the upright position, allowing blood to drain from the neck. We measured venous volume (VV), filling time (FT), filling gradient (FG) required to achieve 90% of VV, residual volume (RV), emptying time (ET), and emptying gradient (EG) required to achieve 90% of emptying volume (EV) where EV = VV - RV, also analyzing the considered parameters by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and principal component mathematical analysis. RESULTS The rate at which venous blood discharged in the vertical position (EG) was significantly faster in the controls (2.73 mL/second ± 1.63) compared with the patients with CCSVI (1.73 mL/second ± 0.94; P = .001). In addition, respectively, in controls and in patients with CCSVI, the following parameters were highly significantly different: FT 5.81 ± 1.99 seconds vs 4.45 ± 2.16 seconds (P = .003); FG 0.92 ± 0.45 mL/second vs 1.50 ± 0.85 mL/second (P < .001); RV 0.54 ± 1.31 mL vs 1.37 ± 1.34 mL (P = .005); ET 1.84 ± 0.54 seconds vs 2.66 ± 0.95 seconds (P < .001). Mathematical analysis demonstrated a higher variability of the dynamic process of cerebral venous return in CCSVI. Finally, ROC analysis demonstrated a good sensitivity of the proposed test with a percent concordant 83.8, discordant 16.0, tied 0.2 (C = 0.839). CONCLUSIONS Cerebral venous return characteristics of the patients with CCSVI were markedly different from those of the controls. In addition, our results suggest that cervical plethysmography has great potential as an inexpensive screening device and as a postoperative monitoring tool.

PREDICTION OF SOLAR ACTIVITY FROM SOLAR BACKGROUND MAGNETIC FIELD VARIATIONS IN CYCLES 21-23

A comprehensive spectral analysis of both the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) in cycles 21-23 and the sunspot magnetic field in cycle 23 reported in our recent paper showed the presence of two principal components (PCs) of SBMF having opposite polarity, e.g., originating in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Over a duration of one solar cycle, both waves are found to travel with an increasing phase shift toward the northern hemisphere in odd cycles 21 and 23 and to the southern hemisphere in even cycle 22. These waves were linked to solar dynamo waves assumed to form in different layers of the solar interior. In this paper, for the first time, the PCs of SBMF in cycles 21-23 are analyzed with the symbolic regression technique using Hamiltonian principles, allowing us to uncover the underlying mathematical laws governing these complex waves in the SBMF presented by PCs and to extrapolate these PCs to cycles 24-26. The PCs predicted for cycle 24 very closely fit (with an accuracy better than 98%) the PCs derived from the SBMF observations in this cycle. This approach also predicts a strong reduction of the SBMF in cycles 25 and 26 and, thus, a reduction of the resulting solar activity. This decrease is accompanied by an increasing phase shift between the two predicted PCs (magnetic waves) in cycle 25 leading to their full separation into the opposite hemispheres in cycle 26. The variations of the modulus summary of the two PCs in SBMF reveals a remarkable resemblance to the average number of sunspots in cycles 21-24 and to predictions of reduced sunspot numbers compared to cycle 24: 80% in cycle 25 and 40% in cycle 26.

Jugular venous reflux and white matter abnormalities in Alzheimer's disease: a pilot study.

To determine whether jugular venous reflux (JVR) is associated with cerebral white matter changes (WMCs) in individuals with Alzheimers disease (AD), we studied 12 AD patients 24 mild cognitive impairment (MCI) patients, and 17 elderly age- and gender-matched controls. Duplex ultrasonography and 1.5T MRI scanning was applied to quantify cerebral WMCs [T2 white matter (WM) lesion and dirty-appearing-white-matter (DAWM)]. Subjects with severe JVR had more frequently hypertension (p = 0.044), more severe WMC, including increased total (p = 0.047) and periventricular DAWM volumes (p = 0.008), and a trend for increased cerebrospinal fluid volumes (p = 0.067) compared with the other groups. A significantly decreased (65.8%) periventricular DAWM volume (p = 0.01) in the JVR-positive AD individuals compared with their JVR-negative counterparts was detected. There was a trend for increased periventricular and subcortical T2 WMC lesion volumes in the JVR-positive AD individuals compared with their JVR-negative counterparts (p = 0.073). This phenomenon was not observed in either the control or MCI groups. In multiple regression analysis, the increased periventricular WMC lesion volume and decreased DAWM volume resulted in 85.7% sensitivity and 80% specificity for distinguishing between JVR-positive and JVR-negative AD patients. These JVR-WMC association patterns were not seen in the control and MCI groups. Therefore, this pilot study suggests that there may be an association between JVR and WMCs in AD patients, implying that cerebral venous outflow impairment might play a role in the dynamics of WMCs formation in AD patients, particularly in the periventricular regions. Further longitudinal studies are needed to confirm and validate our findings.

Aqueductal cerebrospinal fluid pulsatility in healthy individuals is affected by impaired cerebral venous outflow

To investigate cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) dynamics in the aqueduct of Sylvius (AoS) in chronic cerebrospinal venous insufficiency (CCSVI)‐positive and ‐negative healthy individuals using cine phase contrast imaging.

Potential for airborne transmission of infection in the waiting areas of healthcare premises: stochastic analysis using a Monte Carlo model.

BackgroundAlthough many infections that are transmissible from person to person are acquired through direct contact between individuals, a minority, notably pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), measles and influenza are known to be spread by the airborne route. Airborne infections pose a particular threat to susceptible individuals whenever they are placed together with the index case in confined spaces. With this in mind, waiting areas of healthcare facilities present a particular challenge, since large numbers of people, some of whom may have underlying conditions which predispose them to infection, congregate in such spaces and can be exposed to an individual who may be shedding potentially pathogenic microorganisms. It is therefore important to understand the risks posed by infectious individuals in waiting areas, so that interventions can be developed to minimise the spread of airborne infections.MethodA stochastic Monte Carlo model was constructed to analyse the transmission of airborne infection in a hypothetical 132 m3 hospital waiting area in which occupancy levels, waiting times and ventilation rate can all be varied. In the model the Gammaitoni-Nucci equation was utilized to predict probability of susceptible individuals becoming infected. The model was used to assess the risk of transmission of three infectious diseases, TB, influenza and measles. In order to allow for stochasticity a random number generator was applied to the variables in the model and a total of 10000 individual simulations were undertaken. The mean quanta production rates used in the study were 12.7, 100 and 570 per hour for TB, influenza and measles, respectively.ResultsThe results of the study revealed the mean probability of acquiring a TB infection during a 30-minute stay in the waiting area to be negligible (i.e. 0.0034), while that for influenza was an order of magnitude higher at 0.0262. By comparison the mean probability of acquiring a measles infection during the same period was 0.1349. If the duration of the stay was increased to 60 minutes then these values increased to 0.0087, 0.0662 and 0.3094, respectively.ConclusionUnder normal circumstances the risk of acquiring a TB infection during a visit to a hospital waiting area is minimal. Likewise the risks associated with the transmission of influenza, although an order of magnitude greater than those for TB, are relatively small. By comparison, the risks associated with measles are high. While the installation of air disinfection may be beneficial, when seeking to prevent the transmission of airborne viral infection it is important to first minimize waiting times and the number of susceptible individuals present before turning to expensive technological solutions.

Cerebral venous outflow resistance and interpretation of cervical plethysmography data with respect to the diagnosis of chronic cerebrospinal venous insufficiency

Objective: While chronic cerebrospinal venous insufficiency (CCSVI) can be characterized using cervical plethysmography, much remains unknown about the haemodynamics associated with this procedure. The aim of the study was therefore to gain a deeper understanding of the observed haemodynamics. Method: Forty healthy controls and 44 CCSVI patients underwent cervical plethysmography, which involved placing a strain-gauge collar around their necks and tipping them from the upright (90°) to supine position (0°) in a chair. Once stabilized, they were returned to the upright position, allowing blood to drain from the neck. A mathematical model was used to calculate the hydraulic resistance of the extracranial venous system for each subject in the study. Results: The mean hydraulic resistance of the extracranial venous system was 10.28 (standard deviation [SD] 5.14) mmHg.s/mL in the healthy controls and 16.81 (SD 9.22) in the CCSVI patients (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The haemodynamics of the extracranial venous system are greatly altered in CCSVI patients.

Heartbeat of the sun from principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale

We derive two principal components (PCs) of temporal magnetic field variations over the solar cycles 21–24 from full disk magnetograms covering about 39% of data variance, with σ = 0.67. These PCs are attributed to two main magnetic waves travelling from the opposite hemispheres with close frequencies and increasing phase shift. Using symbolic regeression analysis we also derive mathematical formulae for these waves and calculate their summary curve which we show is linked to solar activity index. Extrapolation of the PCs backward for 800 years reveals the two 350-year grand cycles superimposed on 22 year-cycles with the features showing a remarkable resemblance to sunspot activity reported in the past including the Maunder and Dalton minimum. The summary curve calculated for the next millennium predicts further three grand cycles with the closest grand minimum occurring in the forthcoming cycles 26–27 with the two magnetic field waves separating into the opposite hemispheres leading to strongly reduced solar activity. These grand cycle variations are probed by α − Ω dynamo model with meridional circulation. Dynamo waves are found generated with close frequencies whose interaction leads to beating effects responsible for the grand cycles (350–400 years) superimposed on a standard 22 year cycle. This approach opens a new era in investigation and confident prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale.