Simon Newsome

Association between mid-wall late gadolinium enhancement and sudden cardiac death in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy and mild and moderate left ventricular systolic dysfunction

Background: Current guidelines only recommend the use of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in those with a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <35%. However, registries of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests demonstrate that 70% to 80% of such patients have an LVEF >35%. Patients with an LVEF >35% also have low competing risks of death from nonsudden causes. Therefore, those at high risk of SCD may gain longevity from successful implantable cardioverter defibrillator therapy. We investigated whether late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance identified patients with dilated cardiomyopathy without severe LV systolic dysfunction at high risk of SCD. Methods: We prospectively investigated the association between midwall LGE and the prespecified primary composite outcome of SCD or aborted SCD among consecutive referrals with dilated cardiomyopathy and an LVEF ≥40% to our center between January 2000 and December 2011 who did not have a preexisting indication for implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation. Results: Of 399 patients (145 women, median age 50 years, median LVEF 50%, 25.3% with LGE) followed for a median of 4.6 years, 18 of 101 (17.8%) patients with LGE reached the prespecified end point, compared with 7 of 298 (2.3%) without (hazard ratio [HR], 9.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 3.9–21.8; P<0.0001). Nine patients (8.9%) with LGE compared with 6 (2.0%) without (HR, 4.9; 95% CI, 1.8–13.5; P=0.002) died suddenly, whereas 10 patients (9.9%) with LGE compared with 1 patient (0.3%) without (HR, 34.8; 95% CI, 4.6–266.6; P<0.001) had aborted SCD. After adjustment, LGE predicted the composite end point (HR, 9.3; 95% CI, 3.9–22.3; P<0.0001), SCD (HR, 4.8; 95% CI, 1.7–13.8; P=0.003), and aborted SCD (HR, 35.9; 95% CI, 4.8–271.4; P<0.001). Estimated HRs for the primary end point for patients with an LGE extent of 0% to 2.5%, 2.5% to 5%, and >5% compared with those without LGE were 10.6 (95% CI, 3.9–29.4), 4.9 (95% CI, 1.3–18.9), and 11.8 (95% CI, 4.3–32.3), respectively. Conclusions: Midwall LGE identifies a group of patients with dilated cardiomyopathy and an LVEF ≥40% at increased risk of SCD and low risk of nonsudden death who may benefit from implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00930735.

Phenotype and Clinical Outcomes of Titin Cardiomyopathy.

Background Improved understanding of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) due to titin truncation (TTNtv) may help guide patient stratification. Objectives The purpose of this study was to establish relationships among TTNtv genotype, cardiac phenotype, and outcomes in DCM. Methods In this prospective, observational cohort study, DCM patients underwent clinical evaluation, late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance, TTN sequencing, and adjudicated follow-up blinded to genotype for the primary composite endpoint of cardiovascular death, and major arrhythmic and major heart failure events. Results Of 716 subjects recruited (mean age 53.5 ± 14.3 years; 469 men [65.5%]; 577 [80.6%] New York Heart Association function class I/II), 83 (11.6%) had TTNtv. Patients with TTNtv were younger at enrollment (49.0 years vs. 54.1 years; p = 0.002) and had lower indexed left ventricular mass (5.1 g/m2 reduction; padjusted = 0.03) compared with patients without TTNtv. There was no difference in biventricular ejection fraction between TTNtv+/− groups. Overall, 78 of 604 patients (12.9%) met the primary endpoint (median follow-up 3.9 years; interquartile range: 2.0 to 5.8 years), including 9 of 71 patients with TTNtv (12.7%) and 69 of 533 (12.9%) without. There was no difference in the composite primary outcome of cardiovascular death, heart failure, or arrhythmic events, for patients with or without TTNtv (hazard ratio adjusted for primary endpoint: 0.92 [95% confidence interval: 0.45 to 1.87]; p = 0.82). Conclusions In this large, prospective, genotype-phenotype study of ambulatory DCM patients, we show that prognostic factors for all-cause DCM also predict outcome in TTNtv DCM, and that TTNtv DCM does not appear to be associated with worse medium-term prognosis.

Data Resource Profile: The UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry

Data Resource Profile: The UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry David Taylor-Robinson,* Olia Archangelidi, Siobhán B Carr, Rebecca Cosgriff, Elaine Gunn, Ruth H Keogh, Amy MacDougall, Simon Newsome, Daniela K Schlüter, Sanja Stanojevic and Diana Bilton; on behalf of the CF-EpinNet collaboration Department of Public Health and Policy, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK, Department of Paediatric Respiratory Medicine, Royal Brompton and Harefield NHS Foundation Trust, London, Cystic Fibrosis Trust, Aldgate, London, UK, Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK, Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics (CHICAS), Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK and Translational Medicine, Hospital for Sick Children and Institute of Health Policy Management and Evaluation, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada

Truncating Variants in Titin Independently Predict Early Arrhythmias in Patients With Dilated Cardiomyopathy

Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) has a population prevalence of ∼1 in 500 and is associated with prognostically adverse arrhythmias at initial disease presentation in up to one-third of patients [(1)][1]. While increasing age, male sex, and impaired ventricular function are established arrhythmic risk

Predicting two-year mortality from discharge after acute coronary syndrome: An internationally-based risk score:

Background: Long-term risk of post-discharge mortality associated with acute coronary syndrome remains a concern. The development of a model to reliably estimate two-year mortality risk from hospital discharge post-acute coronary syndrome will help guide treatment strategies. Methods: EPICOR (long-tErm follow uP of antithrombotic management patterns In acute CORonary syndrome patients, NCT01171404) and EPICOR Asia (EPICOR Asia, NCT01361386) are prospective observational studies of 23,489 patients hospitalized for an acute coronary syndrome event, who survived to discharge and were then followed up for two years. Patients were enrolled from 28 countries across Europe, Latin America and Asia. Risk scoring for two-year all-cause mortality risk was developed using identified predictive variables and forward stepwise Cox regression. Goodness-of-fit and discriminatory power was estimated. Results: Within two years of discharge 5.5% of patients died. We identified 17 independent mortality predictors: age, low ejection fraction, no coronary revascularization/thrombolysis, elevated serum creatinine, poor EQ-5D score, low haemoglobin, previous cardiac or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, elevated blood glucose, on diuretics or an aldosterone inhibitor at discharge, male sex, low educational level, in-hospital cardiac complications, low body mass index, ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction diagnosis, and Killip class. Geographic variation in mortality risk was seen following adjustment for other predictive variables. The developed risk-scoring system provided excellent discrimination (c-statistic=0.80, 95% confidence interval=0.79–0.82) with a steep gradient in two-year mortality risk: >25% (top decile) vs. ~1% (bottom quintile). A simplified risk model with 11 predictors gave only slightly weaker discrimination (c-statistic=0.79, 95% confidence interval =0.78–0.81). Conclusions: This risk score for two-year post-discharge mortality in acute coronary syndrome patients (www.acsrisk.org) can facilitate identification of high-risk patients and help guide tailored secondary prevention measures.

Sex- and age-based differences in the natural history and outcome of dilated cardiomyopathy.

To evaluate the relationship between sex, age and outcome in dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM).

Lipoprotein(a) in patients with aortic stenosis: Insights from cardiovascular magnetic resonance.

Background Aortic stenosis is the most common age-related valvular pathology. Patients with aortic stenosis and myocardial fibrosis have worse outcome but the underlying mechanism is unclear. Lipoprotein(a) is associated with adverse cardiovascular risk and is elevated in patients with aortic stenosis. Although mechanistic pathways could link Lipoprotein(a) with myocardial fibrosis, whether the two are related has not been previously explored. In this study, we investigated whether elevated Lipoprotein(a) was associated with the presence of myocardial replacement fibrosis. Methods A total of 110 patients with mild, moderate and severe aortic stenosis were assessed by late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance to identify fibrosis. Mann Whitney U tests were used to assess for evidence of an association between Lp(a) and the presence or absence of myocardial fibrosis and aortic stenosis severity and compared to controls. Univariable and multivariable linear regression analysis were undertaken to identify possible predictors of Lp(a). Results Thirty-six patients (32.7%) had no LGE enhancement, 38 (34.6%) had midwall enhancement suggestive of midwall fibrosis and 36 (32.7%) patients had subendocardial myocardial fibrosis, typical of infarction. The aortic stenosis patients had higher Lp(a) values than controls, however, there was no significant difference between the Lp(a) level in mild, moderate or severe aortic stenosis. No association was observed between midwall or infarction pattern fibrosis and Lipoprotein(a), in the mild/moderate stenosis (p = 0.91) or severe stenosis patients (p = 0.42). Conclusion There is no evidence to suggest that higher Lipoprotein(a) leads to increased myocardial midwall or infarction pattern fibrosis in patients with aortic stenosis.

Estimating long-term treatment effects in observational data: A comparison of the performance of different methods under real-world uncertainty.

In the presence of time‐dependent confounding, there are several methods available to estimate treatment effects. With correctly specified models and appropriate structural assumptions, any of these methods could provide consistent effect estimates, but with real‐world data, all models will be misspecified and it is difficult to know if assumptions are violated. In this paper, we investigate five methods: inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models, history‐adjusted marginal structural models, sequential conditional mean models, g‐computation formula, and g‐estimation of structural nested models. This work is motivated by an investigation of the effects of treatments in cystic fibrosis using the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry data focussing on two outcomes: lung function (continuous outcome) and annual number of days receiving intravenous antibiotics (count outcome). We identified five features of this data that may affect the performance of the methods: misspecification of the causal null, long‐term treatment effects, effect modification by time‐varying covariates, misspecification of the direction of causal pathways, and censoring. In simulation studies, under ideal settings, all five methods provide consistent estimates of the treatment effect with little difference between methods. However, all methods performed poorly under some settings, highlighting the importance of using appropriate methods based on the data available. Furthermore, with the count outcome, the issue of non‐collapsibility makes comparison between methods delivering marginal and conditional effects difficult. In many situations, we would recommend using more than one of the available methods for analysis, as if the effect estimates are very different, this would indicate potential issues with the analyses.

Outcome in dilated cardiomyopathy related to the extent, location and pattern of late gadolinium enhancement

Objectives This study sought to investigate the association between the extent, location, and pattern of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and outcome in a large dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) cohort. Background The relationship between LGE and prognosis in DCM is incompletely understood. Methods The authors examined the association between LGE and all-cause mortality and a sudden cardiac death (SCD) composite based on the extent, location, and pattern of LGE in DCM. Results Of 874 patients (588 men, median age 52 years) followed for a median of 4.9 years, 300 (34.3%) had nonischemic LGE. Estimated adjusted hazard ratios for patients with an LGE extent of 0 to 2.55%, 2.55% to 5.10%, and >5.10%, respectively, were 1.59 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.99 to 2.55), 1.56 (95% CI: 0.96 to 2.54), and 2.31 (95% CI: 1.50 to 3.55) for all-cause mortality, and 2.79 (95% CI: 1.42 to 5.49), 3.86 (95% CI: 2.09 to 7.13), and 4.87 (95% CI: 2.78 to 8.53) for the SCD endpoint. There was a marked nonlinear relationship between LGE extent and outcome such that even small amounts of LGE predicted a substantial increase in risk. The presence of septal LGE was associated with increased mortality, but SCD was most associated with the combined presence of septal and free-wall LGE. Predictive models using LGE presence and location were superior to models based on LGE extent or pattern. Conclusions In DCM, the presence of septal LGE is associated with a large increase in the risk of death and SCD events, even when the extent is small. SCD risk is greatest with concomitant septal and free-wall LGE. The incremental value of LGE extent beyond small amounts and LGE pattern is limited.

43 Euroscore II and STS Risk Model Scores in Aortic Stenosis: Can We Rely on Them?

Introduction The European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk models provide a method of predicating mortality of patients undergoing cardiac surgery. However, their validity in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) remains controversial with some studies supporting its use as a good predictor of mortality whilst others find no association. We sought to investigate the validity of both EuroSCORE II and STS score as predictors of mortality in a real-life cohort of patients undergoing a TAVI. Methods Between 2010–2014, 115 (79 ± 8 years old; 56 male) consecutive patients with severe AS scheduled for TAVI had EuroSCORE and STS score calculated prior to intervention. The patients were followed up for a median 187 days (IQR 93,1520). Results During follow up, 27 patients died. Neither EuroSCORE nor STS were associated with prognosis in this cohort. EuroSCORE was not significantly associated with mortality, hazard ratio 1.33 per log unit (p = 0.28, 95% CI 0.90–2.20). This was similar to STS score, hazard ratio 1.08 per log unit (p = 0.78 95% CI 0.63 – 1.87). However, both confidence intervals are relatively wide indicating that more patients are required to substantiate this finding. Conclusions In this small cohort of patients, it would appear that neither EuroSCORE II nor STS are associated with overall survival. This cohort included many patients with poor mobility, previous CABG with LIMA graft and significant comorbidities not included in EuroSCORE/STS calculation. The scores might therefore have underestimated the true risk. More studies and more patients are required to further assess their validity. Although such scores have been accurately validated for open-heart surgery, we recommend that they should be interpreted with caution when attempting to predict risk in patients undergoing a TAVI.Abstract 43 Figure 1 Area under the curves (AUC) for both STS and Euroscore II. Both follow the diagonal line suggesting that they are not good predictors of outcome