Simon O. Krichak

Chapter 3 Relations between variability in the Mediterranean region and mid-latitude variability

Publisher Summary The Mediterranean climate is under the influence of both tropical and mid-latitude climate dynamics, being directly affected by continental and maritime air masses with significant origin differences. The peak of the winter season occurs between December and February, when the mid-latitude cyclone belt has usually reached its southernmost position. However, spring and autumn also contribute to a significant amount of precipitation. Being located at the southern limit of the North Atlantic storm tracks; the Mediterranean region is particularly sensitive to interannual shifts in the trajectories of mid-latitude cyclones that can lead to the remarkable anomalies of precipitation and, to a lesser extent, of temperature. Storm-track variability impacts primarily the western Mediterranean, but it hasa signature clearly detected in the eastern Mediterranean as well. The complex orography that characterizes most regions surrounding the Mediterranean basin can modulate and even distort climate anomaly patterns that otherwise would be geographically much more homogenous. Lack of water in winter and spring reflects in the crop yield. However, too much water in winter is harmful by drowning the seeds and retarding root development. The variability of precipitation plays a crucial role in the management of regional agriculture, in environment, in water resources and ecosystems, as well as social development and behavior.

Representation of microphysical processes in cloud-resolving models: Spectral (bin) microphysics versus bulk parameterization

Most atmospheric motions of different spatial scales and precipitation are closely related to phase transitions in clouds. The continuously increasing resolution of large-scale and mesoscale atmospheric models makes it feasible to treat the evolution of individual clouds. The explicit treatment of clouds requires the simulation of cloud microphysics. Two main approaches describing cloud microphysical properties and processes have been developed in the past four and a half decades: bulk microphysics parameterization and spectral (bin) microphysics (SBM). The development and utilization of both represent an important step forward in cloud modeling. This study presents a detailed survey of the physical basis and the applications of both bulk microphysics parameterization and SBM. The results obtained from simulations of a wide range of atmospheric phenomena, from tropical cyclones through Arctic clouds using these two approaches are compared. Advantages and disadvantages, as well as lines of future development for these methods are discussed. (Less)

Future Climate Projections

In this chapter we show results from an innovative multi-model system used to produce climate simulations with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. The models (hereafter simply referred to as the “CIRCE models”) are a set of five coupled climate models composed by a high-resolution Mediterranean Sea coupled with a relatively high-resolution atmospheric component and a global ocean, which allow, for the first time, to explore and assess the role of the Mediterranean Sea and its complex, small-scale dynamics in the climate of the region. In particular, they make it possible to investigate the influence that local air-sea feedbacks might exert on the mechanisms responsible for climate variability and change in the European continent, Middle East and Northern Africa. In many regards, they represent a new and innovative approach to the problem of regionalization of climate projections in the Mediterranean region.

Interaction of Topography and Tropospheric Flow - A Possible Generator for the Red Sea Trough?

SummaryNumerical investigation of the nature of one of the most typical Eastern Mediterranean atmospheric circulation phenomena — the Red Sea Trough is undertaken. The role of interaction of typical atmospheric flow systems with the local topography of the North African region is analyzed with the help of idealized numerical simulations employing the Penn State and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) MM4 modeling system. The simulations are designed, based on results of a climatological evaluation of the 250 hPa wind field. Idealized initial data sets corresponding to typical transient and winter period positions of the upper tropospheric westerly jet stream are constructed. The data for the analysis are from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 25 y (1965–1989) objective analysis archive. It was found that the primary factor in the Red Sea trough generation is the interaction of the mid-tropospheric westerlies with the terrain in the area of the Red Sea.

Red Sea Trough/Cyclone Development- Numerical Investigation

SummaryA case of development of a meridionally oriented Red Sea Trough (RST) system and its intensification over the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) region during the ALPEX1982 3–5 March period, is investigated. The MM4 mesoscale model of Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research was first applied for a large scale investigation of the processes. The relative roles of the different acting factors, i.e., terrain, latent heat release and the surface fluxes were calculated employing the factor separation method. Topography and sensible heat flux were found to be the dominant ones.The high resolution non-hydrostatic RAMS 3a model of Colorado State University with nested grids of 100 and 20 km illustrated the finer details of the cyclogenetic processes in the mountainous area of the Abyssinean Highlands, Ethiopia, and the Arabian peninsula, where initiation of the trough took place.Results of the factor separation showed that the topography blocking acted as a cyclolytic factor, preventing the process of the northward trough propagation. The situation changed only after about 30 h of the simulation, when the trough already propagated into the EM area after intensification of the mid-tropospheric westerlies over the central part of the Red Sea area. Starting from this time, terrain was acting as one of two major cyclogenetic factors. The second local effect also working as a cyclogenetic one was the sensible heat flux. Its role was especially important after 36 h of the simulations when strong winds over the sea area caused more active heat transfer from the sea surface to the atmosphere.

Climate Change Impacts on Jordan River Flow: Downscaling Application from a Regional Climate Model

Abstract The integration of climate change projections into hydrological and other response models used for water resource planning and management is challenging given the varying spatial resolutions of the different models. In general, climate models are generated at spatial ranges of hundreds of kilometers, while hydrological models are generally watershed specific and based on input at the station or local level. This paper focuses on techniques applied to downscale large-scale climate model simulations to the spatial scale required by local response models (hydrological, agricultural, soil). Specifically, results were extracted from a regional climate model (RegCM) simulation focused on the Middle East, which was downscaled to a scale appropriate for input into a local watershed model [the Hydrological Model for Karst Environment (HYMKE)] calibrated for the upper Jordan River catchment. With this application, the authors evaluated the effect of future climate change on the amount and form of precipita...

The Role of Atmospheric Processes Associated with Hurricane Olga in the December 2001 Floods in Israel

Abstract Over the period from 0000 UTC 3 December to 0000 UTC 5 December 2001, heavy rains fell in northern Israel. Intensity of the rainfall in some areas exceeded 250 mm (24 h)−1. Results of an investigation of the case including back-trajectory evaluations, numerical simulation experiments, and a potential vorticity (PV) analysis are presented. It is demonstrated that the unusual eastern Mediterranean process has been initiated by the formation of a tropical storm that later became Hurricane Olga from 25 to 29 November. The consequent synoptic processes were associated with the development of a large-scale anticyclone to the NE of the tropical storm. Large-scale subsidence in the anticyclone played a central role in the process by leading to a convergence of the moist air masses in a narrow band on the outskirts of the system. The air masses from the area were later transported into the midtroposphere over western Europe. The interaction of these relatively warm and wet air masses with the cold and dry...

A Dust Prediction System with TOMS Initialization

Abstract A dust prediction system, developed earlier at the University of Athens within the framework of the Mediterranean Dust Experiment (MEDUSE) project, was enhanced at Tel Aviv University to support the Israeli–American Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) project. These enhancements include development of a dust initialization approach using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index (AI) data and improved specification of the dust sources. The skill of the model against the TOMS AI measurements was tested during two periods in March and June 2000 using four different scores. It is shown that the TOMS-based initialization has a significant positive impact on all the scores. For instance, the average distance between the predicted and TOMS-observed dust plumes drops from 350–485 to less than 200 km. Verification of model forecasts against surface dust measurements in Tel Aviv shows correlations of up to 0.69 based on 27 predictions, for both 24 and 48 h. One example of a narrow d...

A Conceptual Model for the Identification of Active Red Sea Trough Synoptic Events over the Southeastern Mediterranean

AbstractA phenomenon characterized by a tongue of low pressure extending northward from the southern Red Sea [Red Sea Trough (RST)] toward the eastern Mediterranean Sea (EM) is analyzed. In general, the RST is associated with hot and dry weather, resulting from east-southeasterly flows in the lower troposphere. In some cases, the RST is found to be accompanied by an upper-tropospheric trough extending from the north over the EM. Such conditions are associated with unstable stratification, favoring the development of mesoscale convective systems. This kind of RST has been defined as an “active” RST (ARST). The ARST phenomenon represents a serious threat to human society in the northeastern Africa–southeastern Mediterranean region, being in some cases associated with devastating floods. In this study, a conceptual model of the ARST phenomenon is discussed, and then an algorithm for the identification of ARST events is presented. The identification algorithm has been applied to a multiyear NCEP–NCAR reanalys...

November 2, 1994, severe storms in the southeastern Mediterranean

Abstract The available data archive over the Middle East is complemented with mesoscale fields from simulations for 1–2 November 1994 event of hazardous rains in the southeastern Mediterranean with the aim of exploring the mechanisms of this extraordinary phenomena. The associated severe weather was not predicted at all by the present operational models. A global/limited area modeling system is used for numerical simulation of the process. The system consists of the Florida State University (FSU) Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM) and the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) MM5 model. The accuracy of the numerical simulation is found very sensitive to the moist processes in the model. The development was a consequence of intensive non-adiabatic processes caused by northward propagation of large quantities of warm and moist tropical air. Local terrain of northeastern Africa also played a significant role in the development of a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) in the Mediterranean region on November 2, 1994. Over Israel, the system had a character of relatively large-scale trough with a narrow frontal system accompanied by rapidly developing small cyclonic vortices in the eastern Mediterranean.