Simone A. Vieira

Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink

Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

Markedly divergent estimates of Amazon forest carbon density from ground plots and satellites

Aim The accurate mapping of forest carbon stocks is essential for understanding the global carbon cycle, for assessing emissions from deforestation, and for rational land-use planning. Remote sensing (RS) is currently the key tool for this purpose, but RS does not estimate vegetation biomass directly, and thus may miss significant spatial variations in forest structure. We test the stated accuracy of pantropical carbon maps using a large independent field dataset. Location Tropical forests of the Amazon basin. The permanent archive of the field plot data can be accessed at: http://dx.doi.org/10.5521/FORESTPLOTS.NET/2014_1 Methods Two recent pantropical RS maps of vegetation carbon are compared to a unique ground-plot dataset, involving tree measurements in 413 large inventory plots located in nine countries. The RS maps were compared directly to field plots, and kriging of the field data was used to allow area-based comparisons. Results The two RS carbon maps fail to capture the main gradient in Amazon forest carbon detected using 413 ground plots, from the densely wooded tall forests of the north-east, to the light-wooded, shorter forests of the south-west. The differences between plots and RS maps far exceed the uncertainties given in these studies, with whole regions over- or under-estimated by > 25%, whereas regional uncertainties for the maps were reported to be < 5%. Main conclusions Pantropical biomass maps are widely used by governments and by projects aiming to reduce deforestation using carbon offsets, but may have significant regional biases. Carbon-mapping techniques must be revised to account for the known ecological variation in tree wood density and allometry to create maps suitable for carbon accounting. The use of single relationships between tree canopy height and above-ground biomass inevitably yields large, spatially correlated errors. This presents a significant challenge to both the forest conservation and remote sensing communities, because neither wood density nor species assemblages can be reliably mapped from space.

An estimate of the number of tropical tree species

Significance People are fascinated by the amazing diversity of tropical forests and will be surprised to learn that robust estimates of the number of tropical tree species are lacking. We show that there are at least 40,000, but possibly more than 53,000, tree species in the tropics, in contrast to only 124 across temperate Europe. Almost all tropical tree species are restricted to their respective continents, and the Indo-Pacific region appears to be as species-rich as tropical America, with each of these two regions being almost five times as rich in tree species as African tropical forests. Our study shows that most tree species are extremely rare, meaning that they may be under serious risk of extinction at current deforestation rates. The high species richness of tropical forests has long been recognized, yet there remains substantial uncertainty regarding the actual number of tropical tree species. Using a pantropical tree inventory database from closed canopy forests, consisting of 657,630 trees belonging to 11,371 species, we use a fitted value of Fisher’s alpha and an approximate pantropical stem total to estimate the minimum number of tropical forest tree species to fall between ∼40,000 and ∼53,000, i.e., at the high end of previous estimates. Contrary to common assumption, the Indo-Pacific region was found to be as species-rich as the Neotropics, with both regions having a minimum of ∼19,000–25,000 tree species. Continental Africa is relatively depauperate with a minimum of ∼4,500–6,000 tree species. Very few species are shared among the African, American, and the Indo-Pacific regions. We provide a methodological framework for estimating species richness in trees that may help refine species richness estimates of tree-dependent taxa.

Comment on “Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009”

Zhao and Running (Reports, 20 August 2010, p. 940) reported a reduction in global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) from 2000 through 2009. We argue that the small trends, regional patterns, and interannual variations that they describe are artifacts of their NPP model. Satellite observations of vegetation activity show no statistically significant changes in more than 85% of the vegetated lands south of 70°N during the same 2000 to 2009 period.

Dynamics of carbon, biomass, and structure in two Amazonian forests

(1) Amazon forests are potentially globally significant sources or sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide. In this study, we characterize the spatial trends in carbon storage and fluxes in both live and dead biomass (necromass) in two Amazonian forests, the Biological Dynamic of Forest Fragments Project (BDFFP), near Manaus, Amazonas, and the Tapajos National Forest (TNF) near Santarem, Para´. We assessed coarse woody debris (CWD) stocks, tree growth, mortality, and recruitment in ground-based plots distributed across the terra firme forest at both sites. Carbon dynamics were similar within each site, but differed significantly between the sites. The BDFFP and the TNF held comparable live biomass (167 ± 7.6 MgCha � 1 versus 149 ± 6.0 MgCha � 1 , respectively), but stocks of CWD were 2.5 times larger at TNF (16.2 ± 1.5 MgCha � 1 at BDFFP, versus 40.1 ± 3.9 MgCha � 1 at TNF). A model of current forest dynamics suggests that the BDFFP was close to carbon balance, and its size class structure approximated a steady state. The TNF, by contrast, showed rapid carbon accrual to live biomass (3.24 ± 0.22 MgCha � 1 � a � 1 in TNF, 2.59 ± 0.16 MgCha � 1 � a � 1 in BDFFP), which was more than offset by losses from large stocks of CWD, as well as ongoing shifts of biomass among size classes. This pattern in the TNF suggests recovery from a significant disturbance. The net loss of carbon from the TNF will likely last 10-15 years after the initial disturbance (controlled by the rate of decay of coarse woody debris), followed by uptake of carbon as the forest size class structure and composition continue to shift. The frequency and longevity of forests showing such disequilibruim dynamics within the larger matrix of the Amazon remains an essential question to understanding Amazonian carbon balance.

Stocks of carbon and nitrogen and partitioning between above- and belowground pools in the Brazilian coastal Atlantic Forest elevation range

We estimated carbon and nitrogen stocks in aboveground biomass (AGB) and belowground biomass (BGB) along an elevation range in forest sites located on the steep slopes of the Serra do Mar on the north coast of the State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil. In elevations of 100 m (lowland), 400 m (submontane), and 1000 m (montane) four 1-ha plots were established, and above- (live and dead) and belowground (live and dead) biomass were determined. Carbon and nitrogen concentrations in each compartment were determined and used to convert biomass into carbon and nitrogen stocks. The carbon aboveground stock (CAGB) varied along the elevation range from approximately 110 to 150 Mg·ha−1, and nitrogen aboveground stock (NAGB), varied from approximately 1.0 to 1.9 Mg·ha−1. The carbon belowground stock (CBGB) and the nitrogen belowground stock (NBGB) were significantly higher than the AGB and varied along the elevation range from approximately 200–300 Mg·ha−1, and from 14 to 20 Mg·ha−1, respectively. Finally, the total carbon stock (CTOTAL) varied from approximately 320 to 460 Mg·ha−1, and the nitrogen total stock (NTOTAL) from approximately 15 to 22 Mg·ha−1. Most of the carbon and nitrogen stocks were found belowground and not aboveground as normally found in lowland tropical forests. The above- and belowground stocks, and consequently, the total stocks of carbon and nitrogen increased significantly with elevation. As the soil and air temperature also decreased significantly with elevation, we found a significantly inverse relationship between carbon and nitrogen stocks and temperature. Using this inverse relationship, we made a first approach estimate that an increase of 1°C in soil temperature would decrease the carbon and nitrogen stocks in approximately 17 Mg·ha−1 and 1 Mg·ha−1 of carbon and nitrogen, respectively.

Florestas de restinga e de terras baixas na planície costeira do sudeste do Brasil: vegetação e heterogeneidade ambiental

It was evaluated the floristic similarity between two Atlantic Rainforest physiognomies in Brazilian coast area, herein called Restinga and Lowland forests. The hypothesis was that, due the differences in geomorphologic processes, these forests would differ on soil physical and chemical properties, floristic composition, live above-ground biomass and litterfall production. It was sampled 1 ha (100 × 100 m) for each site located in Ubatuba, Sao Paulo state, SE Brazil. Within each hectare it was recorded trees with DBH > 4.8 cm in all 10 × 10 m contiguous plots, and collected soil and litterfall samples. The cluster and ordination analyses indicated the two communities as distinct groups considering soil and floristic composition, agreeing with the initial hypothesis. Species diversity was higher (p 0.05) between the two forests. This apparent paradox could be explained assuming that, since different species establish themselves in the Restinga or Lowland forests and find a favorable spectrum of conditions and resources, they would tend to persist and to develop in that place; even so the edaphic conditions differ between the Restinga and Lowland forests, each species could respond in a particular way to these variations, and then both forests could reach similar values of biomass and litterfall production. It is probable that the environmental filter conditioned by soils has being important for the strong floristic segregation between these two forests.

Height-diameter relationships of tropical Atlantic moist forest trees in southeastern Brazil

Site-specific height-diameter models may be used to improve biomass estimates for forest inventories where only diameter at breast height (DBH) measurements are available. In this study, we fit height-diameter models for vegetation types of a tropical Atlantic forest using field measurements of height across plots along an altitudinal gradient. To fit height-diameter models, we sampled trees by DBH class and measured tree height within 13 one-hectare permanent plots established at four altitude classes. To select the best model we tested the performance of 11 height-diameter models using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The Weibull and Chapman-Richards height-diameter models performed better than other models, and regional site-specific models performed better than the general model. In addition, there is a slight variation of height-diameter relationships across the altitudinal gradient and an extensive difference in the stature between the Atlantic and Amazon forests. The results showed the effect of altitude on tree height estimates and emphasize the need for altitude-specific models that produce more accurate results than a general model that encompasses all altitudes. To improve biomass estimation, the development of regional height-diameter models that estimate tree height using a subset of randomly sampled trees presents an approach to supplement surveys where only diameter has been measured.

Changes in Amazonian Forest Biomass, Dynamics, and Composition, 1980–2002

© 2009 by the American Geophysical Union. All rights reserved. Long-term, on-the-ground monitoring of forest plots distributed across Amazonia provides a powerful means to quantify stocks and fluxes of biomass and biodiversity. Here we examine the evidence for concerted changes in the structure, dynamics, and functional composition of old-growth Amazonian forests over recent decades. Mature forests have, as a whole, gained biomass and undergone accelerated growth and dynamics, but questions remain as to the long-term persistence of these changes. Because forest growth on average exceeds mortality, intact Amazonian forests have been functioning as a carbon sink. We estimate a net biomass increase in trees > 10 cm diameter of 0.62 ± 0.23 t C ha -1 a -1 through the late twentieth century. If representative of the wider forest landscape, this translates into a sink in South American old-growth forest of at least 0.49 ± 0.18 Pg C a -1 . If other biomass and necromass components also increased proportionally, the estimated South American old-growth forest sink is 0.79 ± 0.29 Pg C a -1 , before allowing for possible gains in soil carbon. If tropical forests elsewhere are behaving similarly, the old-growth biomass forest sink would be 1.60 ± 0.58 Pg C a -1 . This bottom-up estimate of the carbon balance of tropical forests is preliminary, pending syntheses of detailed biometric studies across the other tropical continents. There is also some evidence for recent changes in the functional composition (biodiversity) of Amazonian forest, but the evidence is less comprehensive than that for changes in structure and dynamics. The most likely driver(s) of changes are recent increases in the supply of resources such as atmospheric carbon dioxide, which would increase net primary productivity, increasing tree growth and recruitment, and, in turn, mortality. In the future the growth response of remaining undisturbed Amazonian forests is likely to saturate, and there is a risk of these ecosystems transitioning from sink to source driven by higher respiration (temperature), higher mortality (drought), or compositional change (functional shifts toward lighterwooded plants). Even a modest switch from carbon sink to source for Amazonian forests would impact global climate, biodiversity, and human welfare, while the documented acceleration of tree growth and mortality may already be affecting the interactions of thousands of plant and millions of animal species.

Carbon and nitrogen stock and fluxes in coastal Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil: potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most important biomes of Brazil. Originally covering approximately 1.5 million of km², today this area has been reduced to 12% of its original size. Climate changes may alter the structure and the functioning of this tropical forest. Here we explore how increases in temperature and changes in precipitation distribution could affect dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in coastal Atlantic Forest of the southeast region of Brazil The main conclusion of this article is that the coastal Atlantic Forest has high stocks of carbon and nitrogen above ground, and especially, below ground. An increase in temperature may transform these forests from important carbon sinks to carbon sources by increasing loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. However, this conclusion should be viewed with caution because it is based on limited information. Therefore, more studies are urgently needed to enable us to make more accurate predictions.