Simone Parisi

Climate change in Europe and effects on thermal resources for crops

Atmospheric variables play a fundamental role in driving man-managed ecosystems and more specifically in agro-ecosystems, determining the quantity and quality of crop production. On the other hand, climate variability can be seen as the superimposition of gradual and abrupt changes. This paper is focused on European surface air temperature in the period 1951–2010. Analysis of this dataset identified breakpoints that define two homogeneous sub-periods: 1951–1987 and 1988–2010. Thermal resources for crops were analyzed adopting a “normal heat hours” approach. Computation highlighted a general increase in thermal resources in the European continent for crop groups II and III (C3 and C4 plants adapted to high or moderate temperatures), while a decline of thermal resources for crop group I (cold adapted C3) was highlighted in the Mediterranean area. The climate variability justifies a change in the potential latitudinal limits of different groups of crops, representing a fundamental step for crop adaptation to climate change.

Modelling the potential distribution of Bemisia tabaci in Europe in light of the climate change scenario

BACKGROUND Bemisia tabaci is a serious pest of agricultural and horticultural crops in greenhouses and fields around the world. This paper deals with the distribution of the pest under field conditions. In Europe, the insect is currently found in coastal regions of Mediterranean countries where it is subject to quarantine regulations. To assess the risk presented by B. tabaci to Europe, the area of potential establishment of this insect, in light of the climate change scenario, was assessed by a temperature-dependent physiologically based demographic model (PBDM). RESULTS The simulated potential distribution under current climate conditions has been successfully validated with the available field records of B. tabaci in Europe. Considering climate change scenarios of +1 and +2 °C, range expansion by B. tabaci is predicted, particularly in Spain, France, Italy, Greece and along the Adriatic coast of the Balkans. Nonetheless, even under the scenario of +2 °C, northern European countries are not likely to be at risk of B. tabaci establishment because of climatic limitations. CONCLUSION Model validation with field observations and evaluation of uncertainties associated with model parameter variability support the reliability of model results. The PBDM developed here can be applied to other organisms and offers significant advantages for assessing the potential distribution of invasive species.

Extreme Rainfalls in the Mediterranean Area

A brief survey on the extreme rainfalls in the Mediterranean area has been carried out beginning from the key thermal and pluviometric features of the Mediterranean macroclimate (wet and mild winters – warm and dry summers), passing through the main air masses that influence the basin and coming arriving to the main circulation patterns favourable to extreme rainfall (Atlantic troughs, Mediterranean cyclones, blocking systems). In the final part of the work a statistical climatology of daily extreme rainfall events on the Mediterranean area has been carried out analysing for the period 1973–2010 the extreme events in the whole Mediterranean basin and in the Western and Eastern sub-basins. On the basis of the results, it has been possible to state that the temporal behavior of the relative weight of selected precipitation classes is generally steady on average. Exploring each rainfall class, it has been evidenced only a significant increase of “moderate” events (whole basin) and a meanwhile decrease of “strong” events (West). On the other hand, the observed positive trends of classes “moderate” and “strong” for the East part of the basin should be confirmed by a richer dataset referred to this specific area. Such analysis has highlighted the weaknesses of the historical series currently available in the freely accessible International datasets, pointing up the need of more reliable data sources in terms of time continuity and spatial coverage.

Estimating Leaf Area Index (LAI) in Vineyards Using the PocketLAI Smart-App

Estimating leaf area index (LAI) of Vitis vinifera using indirect methods involves some critical issues, related to its discontinuous and non-homogeneous canopy. This study evaluates the smart app PocketLAI and hemispherical photography in vineyards against destructive LAI measurements. Data were collected during six surveys in an experimental site characterized by a high level of heterogeneity among plants, allowing us to explore a wide range of LAI values. During the last survey, the possibility to combine remote sensing data and in-situ PocketLAI estimates (smart scouting) was evaluated. Results showed a good agreement between PocketLAI data and direct measurements, especially for LAI ranging from 0.13 to 1.41 (R2 = 0.94, RRMSE = 17.27%), whereas the accuracy decreased when an outlying value (vineyard LAI = 2.84) was included (R2 = 0.77, RRMSE = 43.00%), due to the saturation effect in case of very dense canopies arising from lack of green pruning. The hemispherical photography showed very high values of R2, even in presence of the outlying value (R2 = 0.94), although it showed a marked and quite constant overestimation error (RRMSE = 99.46%), suggesting the need to introduce a correction factor specific for vineyards. During the smart scouting, PocketLAI showed its reliability to monitor the spatial-temporal variability of vine vigor in cordon-trained systems, and showed a potential for a wide range of applications, also in combination with remote sensing.

Potential effectiveness of visible and near infrared spectroscopy coupled with wavelengths selection for real time grapevine leaf water status measurement

BACKGROUND Increasing attention is being paid to non-destructive methods for water status real time monitoring as a potential solution to replace the tedious conventional techniques which are time consuming and not easy to perform directly in the field. The objective of this study was to test the potential effectiveness of two portable optical devices (visible/near infrared (vis/NIR) and near infrared (NIR) spectrophotometers) for the rapid and non-destructive evaluation of the water status of grapevine leaves. Moreover, a variable selection methodology was proposed to determine a set of candidate variables for the prediction of water potential (Ψ, MPa) related to leaf water status in view of a simplified optical device. RESULTS The statistics of the partial least square (PLS) models showed in validation R2 between 0.67 and 0.77 for models arising from vis/NIR spectra, and R2 ranged from 0.77 to 0.85 for the NIR region. The overall performance of the multiple linear regression (MLR) models from selected wavelengths was slightly worse than that of the PLS models. Regarding the NIR range, acceptable MLR models were obtained only using 14 effective variables (R2 range 0.63-0.69). CONCLUSION To address the market demand for portable optical devices and heading towards the trend of miniaturization and low cost of the devices, individual wavelengths could be useful for the design of a simplified and low-cost handheld system providing useful information for better irrigation scheduling.