Simone Pigolotti

Oscillation patterns in negative feedback loops

Organisms are equipped with regulatory systems that display a variety of dynamical behavior ranging from simple stable steady states, to switching and multistability, to oscillations. Earlier work has shown that oscillations in protein concentrations or gene expression levels are related to the presence of at least one negative feedback loop in the regulatory network. Here, we study the dynamics of a very general class of negative feedback loops. Our main result is that, when a single negative feedback loop dominates the dynamical behavior, the sequence of maxima and minima of the concentrations exhibit a pattern that uniquely identifies the interactions of the loop. This allows us to devise an algorithm to (i) test whether observed oscillating time series are consistent with a single underlying negative feedback loop, and if so, (ii) reconstruct the precise structure of the loop, i.e., the activating/repressing nature of each interaction. This method applies even when some variables are missing from the data set, or if the time series shows transients, like damped oscillations. We illustrate the relevance and the limits of validity of our method with three examples: p53-Mdm2 oscillations, circadian gene expression in cyanobacteria, and cyclic binding of cofactors at the estrogen-sensitive pS2 promoter.

Dynamical evolution of ecosystems.

The assembly of an ecosystem such as a tropical forest depends crucially on the species interaction network, and the deduction of its rules is a formidably complex problem. In spite of this, many recent studies using Hubbell’s neutral theory of biodiversity and biogeography have demonstrated that the resulting emergent macroscopic behaviour of the ecosystem at or near a stationary state shows a surprising simplicity reminiscent of many physical systems. Indeed the symmetry postulate, that the effective birth and death rates are species-independent within a single trophic level, allows one to make analytical predictions for various static distributions such as the relative species abundance, β-diversity and the species–area relationship. In contrast, there have only been a few studies of the dynamics and stability of tropical rain forests. Here we consider the dynamical behaviour of a community, and benchmark it against the exact predictions of a neutral model near or at stationarity. In addition to providing a description of the relative species abundance, our analysis leads to a quantitative understanding of the species turnover distribution and extinction times, and a measure of the temporal scales of neutral evolution. Our model gives a very good description of the large quantity of data collected in Barro Colorado Island in Panama in the period 1990–2000 with just three ecologically relevant parameters and predicts the dynamics of extinction of the existing species.

Species clustering in competitive Lotka-Volterra models.

We study the properties of general Lotka-Volterra models with competitive interactions. The intensity of the competition depends on the position of species in an abstract niche space through an interaction kernel. We show analytically and numerically that the properties of these models change dramatically when the Fourier transform of this kernel is not positive definite, due to a pattern-forming instability. We estimate properties of the species distributions, such as the steady number of species and their spacings, for different types of interactions, including stretched exponential and constant kernels.

How Gaussian competition leads to lumpy or uniform species distributions

A central model in theoretical ecology considers the competition of a range of species for a broad spectrum of resources. Recent studies have shown that essentially two different outcomes are possible. Either the species surviving competition are more or less uniformly distributed over the resource spectrum, or their distribution is “lumped” (or “clumped”), consisting of clusters of species with similar resource use that are separated by gaps in resource space. Which of these outcomes will occur crucially depends on the competition kernel, which reflects the shape of the resource utilization pattern of the competing species. Most models considered in the literature assume a Gaussian competition kernel. This is unfortunate, since predictions based on such a Gaussian assumption are not robust. In fact, Gaussian kernels are a border case scenario, and slight deviations from this function can lead to either uniform or lumped species distributions. Here, we illustrate the non-robustness of the Gaussian assumption by simulating different implementations of the standard competition model with constant carrying capacity. In this scenario, lumped species distributions can come about by secondary ecological or evolutionary mechanisms or by details of the numerical implementation of the model. We analyze the origin of this sensitivity and discuss it in the context of recent applications of the model.

Kinetic versus energetic discrimination in biological copying.

We study stochastic copying schemes in which discrimination between a right and a wrong match is achieved via different kinetic barriers or different binding energies of the two matches. We demonstrate that, in single-step reactions, the two discrimination mechanisms are strictly alternative and cannot be mixed to further reduce the error fraction. Close to the lowest error limit, kinetic discrimination results in a diverging copying velocity and dissipation per copied bit. On the other hand, energetic discrimination reaches its lowest error limit in an adiabatic regime where dissipation and velocity vanish. By analyzing experimentally measured kinetic rates of two DNA polymerases, T7 and Polγ, we argue that one of them operates in the kinetic and the other in the energetic regime. Finally, we show how the two mechanisms can be combined in copying schemes implementing error correction through a proofreading pathway.

Speciation-rate dependence in species-area relationships.

The general tendency for species number (S) to increase with sampled area (A) constitutes one of the most robust empirical laws of ecology, quantified by species-area relationships (SAR). In many ecosystems, SAR curves display a power-law dependence, S proportional, variantA(z). The exponent z is always less than one but shows significant variation in different ecosystems. We study the multitype voter model as one of the simplest models able to reproduce SAR similar to those observed in real ecosystems in terms of basic ecological processes such as birth, dispersal and speciation. Within the model, the species-area exponent z depends on the dimensionless speciation rate nu, even though the detailed dependence is still matter of controversy. We present extensive numerical simulations in a broad range of speciation rates from nu=10(-3) down to nu=10(-11), where the model reproduces values of the exponent observed in nature. In particular, we show that the inverse of the species-area exponent linearly depends on the logarithm of nu. Further, we compare the model outcomes with field data collected from previous studies, for which we separate the effect of the speciation rate from that of the different species lifespans. We find a good linear relationship between inverse exponents and logarithm of species lifespans. However, the slope sets bounds on the speciation rates that can hardly be justified on evolutionary basis, suggesting that additional effects should be taken into account to consistently interpret the observed exponents.

What Ecological Factors Shape Species-Area Curves in Neutral Models?

Understanding factors that shape biodiversity and species coexistence across scales is of utmost importance in ecology, both theoretically and for conservation policies. Species-area relationships (SARs), measuring how the number of observed species increases upon enlarging the sampled area, constitute a convenient tool for quantifying the spatial structure of biodiversity. While general features of species-area curves are quite universal across ecosystems, some quantitative aspects can change significantly. Several attempts have been made to link these variations to ecological forces. Within the framework of spatially explicit neutral models, here we scrutinize the effect of varying the local population size (i.e. the number of individuals per site) and the level of habitat saturation (allowing for empty sites). We conclude that species-area curves become shallower when the local population size increases, while habitat saturation, unless strongly violated, plays a marginal role. Our findings provide a plausible explanation of why SARs for microorganisms are flatter than those for larger organisms.

Equilibrium strategy and population-size effects in lowest unique bid auctions.

In lowest unique bid auctions, N players bid for an item. The winner is whoever places the lowest bid, provided that it is also unique. We use a grand canonical approach to derive an analytical expression for the equilibrium distribution of strategies. We then study the properties of the solution as a function of the mean number of players, and compare them with a large data set of internet auctions. The theory agrees with the data with striking accuracy for small population-size N, while for larger N a qualitatively different distribution is observed. We interpret this result as the emergence of two different regimes, one in which adaptation is feasible and one in which it is not. Our results question the actual possibility of a large population to adapt and find the optimal strategy when participating in a collective game.

Analysis of self-overlap reveals trade-offs in plankton swimming trajectories.

Movement is a fundamental behaviour of organisms that not only brings about beneficial encounters with resources and mates, but also at the same time exposes the organism to dangerous encounters with predators. The movement patterns adopted by organisms should reflect a balance between these contrasting processes. This trade-off can be hypothesized as being evident in the behaviour of plankton, which inhabit a dilute three-dimensional environment with few refuges or orienting landmarks. We present an analysis of the swimming path geometries based on a volumetric Monte Carlo sampling approach, which is particularly adept at revealing such trade-offs by measuring the self-overlap of the trajectories. Application of this method to experimentally measured trajectories reveals that swimming patterns in copepods are shaped to efficiently explore volumes at small scales, while achieving a large overlap at larger scales. Regularities in the observed trajectories make the transition between these two regimes always sharper than in randomized trajectories or as predicted by random walk theory. Thus, real trajectories present a stronger separation between exploration for food and exposure to predators. The specific scale and features of this transition depend on species, gender and local environmental conditions, pointing at adaptation to state and stage-dependent evolutionary trade-offs.

Population Genetics in Compressible Flows

We study competition between two biological species advected by a compressible velocity field. Individuals are treated as discrete Lagrangian particles that reproduce or die in a density-dependent fashion. In the absence of a velocity field and fitness advantage, number fluctuations lead to a coarsening dynamics typical of the stochastic Fisher equation. We investigate three examples of compressible advecting fields: a shell model of turbulence, a sinusoidal velocity field and a linear velocity sink. In all cases, advection leads to a striking drop in the fixation time, as well as a large reduction in the global carrying capacity. We find localization on convergence zones, and very rapid extinction compared to well-mixed populations. For a linear velocity sink, one finds a bimodal distribution of fixation times. The long-lived states in this case are demixed configurations with a single interface, whose location depends on the fitness advantage.