Siu L. Hui

Age and bone mass as predictors of fracture in a prospective study.

To study the effect of bone mass on the risk of fracture, we followed 521 Caucasian women over an average of 6.5 yr and took repeated bone mass measurements at the radius. We observed 138 nonspinal fractures in 3,388 person-yr. The person-years of follow-up and the incident fractures were cross-classified by age and bone mass. The incidence of fracture was then fitted to a log-linear model in age and bone mass. It was found that incidence of fracture increased with both increasing age and decreasing radius bone mass. When subsets of fractures were examined it was found that age was a stronger predictor of hip fractures, whereas midshaft radius bone mass was a stronger predictor of fractures at the distal forearm. We concluded that bone mass is a useful predictor of fractures but that other age-related factors associated with fractures need to be identified.

Six-item screener to identify cognitive impairment among potential subjects for clinical research.

Objective. To design a brief cognitive screener with acceptable sensitivity and specificity for identifying subjects with cognitive impairment Design. Cohort one is assembled from a community-based survey coupled with a second-stage diagnostic evaluation using formal diagnostic criteria for dementia. Cohort two is assembled from referrals to a specialty clinic for dementing disorders that completed the same diagnostic evaluation. Setting. Urban neighborhoods in Indianapolis, Indiana and the Indiana Alzheimer Disease Center. Patients. Cohort one consists of 344 community-dwelling black persons identified from a random sample of 2212 black persons aged 65 and older residing in Indianapolis; cohort two consists of 651 subject referrals to the Alzheimer Disease Center. Measurements. Formal diagnostic clinical assessments for dementia including scores on the Mini-mental state examination (MMSE), a six-item screener derived from the MMSE, the Blessed Dementia Rating Scale (BDRS), and the Word List Recall. Based on clinical evaluations, subjects were categorized as no cognitive impairment, cognitive impairment-not demented, or demented. Results. The mean age of the community-based sample was 74.4 years, 59.4% of the sample were women, and the mean years of education was 10.1. The prevalence of dementia in this sample was 4.3% and the prevalence of cognitive impairment was 24.6%. Using a cut-off of three or more errors, the sensitivity and specificity of the six-item screener for a diagnosis of dementia was 88.7 and 88.0, respectively. In the same sample, the corresponding sensitivity and specificity for the MMSE using a cut-off score of 23 was 95.2 and 86.7. The performance of the two scales was comparable across the two populations studied and using either cognitive impairment or dementia as the gold standard. An increasing number of errors on the six-item screener is highly correlated with poorer scores on longer measures of cognitive impairment. Conclusions. The six-item screener is a brief and reliable instrument for identifying subjects with cognitive impairment and its diagnostic properties are comparable to the full MMSE. It can be administered by telephone or face-to-face interview and is easily scored by a simple summation of errors.

Baseline measurement of bone mass predicts fracture in white women.

STUDY OBJECTIVE To determine if a single bone mass measurement of the radius is predictive of future fractures at any site. DESIGN Observational study of a cohort of free-living subjects and a cohort of retirement-home residents with an average follow-up of 6.7 years and 5.5 years, respectively (range, 1 to 15 years for both cohorts). SETTING General community and a retirement home. SUBJECTS Volunteer sample of white women (386 free-living and 135 living in a retirement home) who were free of disease and were not receiving medication known to affect bone metabolism. In terms of physical condition subjects ranged from the totally independent to the wheelchair-bound. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS A radial bone mass measurement was done at the initial visit. Subsequent non-spine fractures were reported by the subjects at follow-up visits, which were less than a year apart in most cases, and verified with medical records. Cox regression was used to model time to first fracture as a function of age and bone mass. These analyses showed that for every 0.1 g/cm decrement in bone mass, the relative risk of fracture was 2.2 (CI, 1.7 to 2.8) for the free-living and 1.5 (CI, 1.2 to 1.9) for the retirement-home residents. Baseline age did not predict the risk of fracture in either cohort, and controlling for baseline age did not reduce the relative-risk estimates of bone mass. Similar analyses also showed that bone mass was a statistically significant predictor for first hip fractures (n = 30) among the nursing-home residents (relative risk, 1.9; CI, 1.4 to 2.7) and first forearm fractures (n = 10) among the free living (relative risk, 3.6; CI, 1.9 to 6.8). For both cohorts, the 8-year probability of any nonspine fracture was about 80% for subjects with initial bone mass less than 0.6 g/cm and was less than 10% for subjects with initial bone mass greater than 0.8 g/cm. Similarly, those in the retirement home with bone mass below 0.6 g/cm had a 6-year probability of hip fracture of 43%, compared with a 17% risk for those with greater bone mass. CONCLUSION A single bone mass measurement of the radius is predictive of future nonspine fractures at all sites, and at both the forearm and the hip. Baseline age was not a significant predictor of fracture within either cohort. Relative-risk estimates were not dissimilar across fracture sites.

Reminders to physicians from an introspective computer medical record: a two-year randomized trial

We developed a computer-stored medical record system containing a limited set of the total clinical data base--primarily diagnostic studies and treatments. This system responds to its own content according to physician-authored reminder rules. To determine the effect of the reminder messages generated by 1490 rules on physician behavior, we randomly assigned practitioners in a general medicine clinic to study or control groups. The computer found indications for six different actions per patient in 12 467 patients during a 2-year study: 61 study group residents who received computer reminders responded to 49% of these indications; 54 control group residents, to only 29% (p less than 0.0001). Preventive care (occult blood testing, mammographic screening, weight reduction diets, influenza and pneumococcal vaccines) was affected. The intentions of the study group to use a given action for an indication predicted their response to the indications (p less than 0.03, r2 = 0.33). The intentions of the control residents did not.

Sex steroids and bone mass in older men. Positive associations with serum estrogens and negative associations with androgens.

The purpose of this study was to determine whether bone density in older men was associated with serum sex steroids or sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). Bone density and sex steroids were measured in men over age 65 at 6-mo intervals for an average of 2.1 yr. Bone density was significantly positively associated with greater serum E2 concentrations (+0.21 < r < +0.35; 0.01 < P < 0.05) at all skeletal sites. There were weak negative correlations between serum testosterone and bone density (-0.20 < r < -0.28; 0.03 < P < 0.10) at the spine and hip. SHBG was negatively associated only with bone density in the greater trochanter (r = -0.26, P < 0.05). Greater body weight was associated with lower serum testosterone and SHBG, and greater E2. Because of these associations, regression models which adjusted for age, body weight, and serum sex steroids were constructed; these accounted for 10-30% of the variability in bone density, and showed consistent, significant positive associations between bone density and serum E2 concentrations in men, even after adjustments for weight and SHBG. These data suggest that estrogens may play an important role in the development or maintenance of the male skeleton, much as is the case for the female skeleton. These data also indicate that, within the normal range, lower serum testosterone concentrations are not associated with low bone density in men.

The contribution of bone loss to postmenopausal osteoporosis

We have addressed the relative importance of peak bone mass and subsequent rate of loss in determining postmenopausal womens bone mass in old age, by examining longitudinal measurements of radial mid-shaft bone mass on various samples of healthy white postmenopausal women. Using both the variance estimate of age-specific rates of bone loss and the population variance in bone mass, we determined that rates of loss could contribute importantly to future bone mass. However, since we found a small negative correlation between initial bone mass and rate of loss, it was necessary to estimate the effect of bone loss as the complement of the contribution of initial bone mass. We found that the influence of bone loss (relative to initial bone mass) increases as the women age, such that by about age 70, the contribution of initial bone mass and rate of loss approached equality. However, estimated rates of bone loss were not very stable over time, so it was difficult to identify long-term ‘fast-losers’. We conclude that the rate of postmenopausal bone loss is an important contributor to osteoporosis at old age, but it is difficult to identify long-term fast-losers, thereby reducing the clinical value of assessments of rates of change in bone mass early in the postmenopause.

Influences on skeletal mineralization in children and adolescents: Evidence for varying effects of sexual maturation and physical activity

OBJECTIVE To establish rates of skeletal mineralization in children and adolescents, and to identify factors that influence these rates. DESIGN Three-year observational study. SETTING University hospital. SUBJECTS Ninety white children, aged 6 to 14 years. MEASUREMENTS Bone mineral density of the radius, spine, and hip was measured at baseline and 3 years later. Physical activity was assessed by questionnaires at 6-month intervals and dietary calcium intake by diet diary 1 day per month for 36 months. Sexual maturation (Tanner stage) was determined by an endocrinologist at 6-month intervals, as necessary to classify children as prepubertal, peripubertal, or postpubertal. RESULTS Skeletal mineralization accelerated markedly at puberty in the spine (0.077 vs 0.027 gm/cm2 per year, peripubertal vs prepubertal) and greater trochanter (0.050 vs 0.027 gm/cm2 per year), less markedly in the femoral neck (0.047 vs 0.030 gm/cm2 per year), and only slightly in the radius. Nearly one third (15 gm) of the total skeletal mineral in the lumbar spine of adult women (approximately 52 gm) was accumulated in the 3 years around the onset of puberty. Increases in height and weight were the strongest correlates of skeletal mineralization: weight changes were more strongly correlated with trabecular bone sites and changes in height with cortical bone sites. Increases in calf muscle area were strongly associated with mineralization, particularly in peripubertal children, and physical activity was associated with more rapid mineralization in prepubertal children. CONCLUSIONS Puberty has varying effects on skeletal mineralization depending on skeletal site; trabecular bone is apparently more sensitive to changing hormone concentrations. Physical activity and normal growth are also positively associated with skeletal mineralization, also depending on skeletal site and sexual maturation.

Sex steroids and bone mass. A study of changes about the time of menopause.

To examine the relationships between bone loss and sex steroids, 84 peri- and postmenopausal women were studied at 4-mo intervals for 3 yr. At each visit, measurements were made of bone mass at the midshaft and distal radius, of steroids, of gonadotropins, and of bone gla protein (BGP). Bone loss was approximately 1% per yr among late perimenopausal and postmenopausal groups, whereas the early perimenopausal group lost no bone. Mean serum estrogen and BGP concentrations predicted rates of bone loss. BGP was negatively correlated with the rate of bone loss (r = -0.45) and with mean estrogen concentrations (r = -0.40). Multivariate regressions showed estrogen concentrations to be strong independent predictors of the slope of bone mass over time. When BGP concentrations were added to the models, the significance of estrogen was reduced, suggesting that a portion of the estrogen effect was mediated through effects on rates of bone remodelling.

Longitudinal Study of Depression and Health Services Use Among Elderly Primary Care Patients

OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence and 9‐month incidence of depressive symptoms among a cohort of elderly primary care patients and to determine whether different patterns of depression are associated with different patterns of health services use.

Delayed feedback of physician performance versus immediate reminders to perform preventive care effects on physician compliance

In an academic general medicine clinic, we performed a randomized, controlled trial to compare (1) the effects of supplying monthly feedback reports of compliance with preventive care protocols by 135 internal medicine house staff with (2) the effects of specific reminders given to them at the time of patient visits. The protocols were randomly divided into two groups, A and B, and half the house staff were given feedback for Group A and half for Group B. Thus, each group served as a control for the other. Each feedback group was also randomly assigned to receive reminders for either Group A or B protocols. House staff receiving feedback more often complied with fecal occult blood testing, mammography, pneumococcal vaccination, use of metronidazole, and combined Group A and B protocols than did controls (P < 0.01). There was also significantly more compliance with the same protocols by house staff receiving reminders, but the increase for fecal occult blood testing, pneumococcal vaccination, and combined Group A protocols was twice that seen in physicians given feedback alone. In addition, reminders alone increased compliance with oral calcium supplementation. Overall compliance with the preventive care protocols was low: 10-15% in physicians receiving neither feedback nor reminders, increasing to 15-30% in those receiving reminders. Physician compliance with suggested preventive care protocols can be increased by both delayed feedback and immediate reminders, but reminders have a greater effect.