Sizah Mwalusepo

Predicting the Impact of Temperature Change on the Future Distribution of Maize Stem Borers and Their Natural Enemies along East African Mountain Gradients Using Phenology Models

Lepidopteran stem borers are among the most important pests of maize in East Africa. The objective of the present study was to predict the impact of temperature change on the distribution and abundance of the crambid Chilo partellus, the noctuid Busseola fusca, and their larval parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and Cotesia sesamiae at local scale along Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills gradients in Tanzania and Kenya, respectively. Temperature-dependent phenology models of pests and parasitoids were used in a geographic information system for mapping. The three risk indices namely establishment, generation, and activity indices were computed using current temperature data record from local weather stations and future (i.e., 2055) climatic condition based on downscaled climate change data from the AFRICLIM database. The calculations were carried out using index interpolator, a sub-module of the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Thin plate algorithm was used for interpolation of the indices. Our study confirmed that temperature was a key factor explaining the distribution of stem borers and their natural enemies but other climatic factors and factors related to the top-down regulation of pests by parasitoids (host-parasitoid synchrony) also played a role. Results based on temperature only indicated a worsening of stem borer impact on maize production along the two East African mountain gradients studied. This was attributed to three main changes occurring simultaneously: (1) range expansion of the lowland species C. partellus in areas above 1200 m.a.s.l.; (2) increase of the number of pest generations across all altitudes, thus by 2055 damage by both pests will increase in the most productive maize zones of both transects; (3) disruption of the geographical distribution of pests and their larval parasitoids will cause an improvement of biological control at altitude below 1200 m.a.s.l. and a deterioration above 1200 m.a.s.l. The predicted increase in pest activity will significantly increase maize yield losses in all agro-ecological zones across both transects but to a much greater extent in lower areas.

Characteristics of soils in selected maize growing sites along altitudinal gradients in East African highlands

Maize is the main staple crop in the East African Mountains. Understanding how the edaphic characteristics change along altitudinal gradients is important for maximizing maize production in East African Highlands, which are the key maize production areas in the region. This study evaluated and compared the levels of some macro and micro-elements (Al, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na and P) and other soil parameters (pH, organic carbon content, soil texture [i.e. % Sand, % Clay and % Silt], cation exchange capacity [CEC], electric conductivity [EC], and water holding capacity [HC]). Soil samples were taken from maize plots along three altitudinal gradients in East African highlands (namely Machakos Hills, Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro) characterized by graded changes in climatic conditions. For all transects, pH, Ca, K and Mg decreased with the increase in altitude. In contrast, % Silt, organic carbon content, Al and water holding capacity (HC) increased with increasing altitude. The research provides information on the status of the physical–chemical characteristics of soils along three altitudinal ranges of East African Highlands and includes data available for further research.

Land use and land cover data changes in Indian Ocean Islands: Case study of Unguja in Zanzibar Island

Land use and land cover changes will continue to affect resilient human communities and ecosystems as a result of climate change. However, an assessment of land use and land cover changes over time in Indian Ocean Islands is less documented. The land use/cover data changes over 10 years at smaller geographical scale across Unguja Island in Zanzibar were analyzed. Downscaling of the data was obtained from SERVIR through partnership with Kenya-based Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) database (http://www.servirglobal.net), and clipped down in ArcMap (Version 10.1) to Unguja Island. SERVIR and RCMRD Land Cover Dataset are mainly 30 m multispectral images include Landsat TM and ETM+Multispectral Images. Landscape ecology Statistics tool (LecoS) was used to analysis the land use and land cover changes. The data provide information on the status of the land use and land cover changes along the Unguja Island in Zanzibar. The data is of great significance to the future research on global change.

Spatially continuous dataset at local scale of Taita Hills in Kenya and Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania

Climate change is a global concern, requiring local scale spatially continuous dataset and modeling of meteorological variables. This dataset article provided the interpolated temperature, rainfall and relative humidity dataset at local scale along Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro altitudinal gradients in Kenya and Tanzania, respectively. The temperature and relative humidity were recorded hourly using automatic onset THHOBO data loggers and rainfall was recorded daily using GENERALR wireless rain gauges. Thin plate spline (TPS) was used to interpolate, with the degree of data smoothing determined by minimizing the generalized cross validation. The dataset provide information on the status of the current climatic conditions along the two mountainous altitudinal gradients in Kenya and Tanzania. The dataset will, thus, enhance future research.

Stability Analysis of Competing Insect Species for a Single Resource

The models explore the effects of resource and temperature on competition between insect species. A system of differential equations is proposed and analysed qualitatively using stability theory. A local study of the models is performed around axial, planar, and interior equilibrium points to successively estimate the effect of (i) one species interacting with a resource, (ii) two competing species for a single resource, and (iii) three competing species for a single resource. The local stability analysis of the equilibrium is discussed using Routh-Hurwitz criteria. Numerical simulation of the models is performed to investigate the sensitivity of certain key parameters. The models are used to predict population dynamics in the selected cases studied. The results show that when a single species interacts with a resource, the species will be able to establish and sustain a stable population. However, in competing situation, it is observed that the combinations of three parameters (half-saturation, growth rate, and mortality rate) determine which species wins for any given resource. Moreover, our results indicate that each species is the superior competitor for the resource for the range of temperature for which it has the lowest equilibrium resource.

Spatial Distribution of Bactrocera dorsalis and Thaumatotibia leucotreta in Smallholder Avocado Orchards along Altitudinal Gradient of Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro

Avocado (Persea americana) fruits are an important source of income and a nutritious food for small-scale growers and other stakeholders involved in farming along the Afrotropical highlands of Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro in Kenya and Tanzania, respectively. Avocado fruits are infested by several insect pests, namely the Asian invasive fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae), and the false codling moth, Thaumatotibia leucotreta Meyrick (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). However, there is inadequate information on the distribution patterns of these pests in small-scale avocado cropping systems in the East African highlands. This study was initiated to generate a spatial distribution map of B. dorsalis and T. leucotreta in avocado orchards at Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro in Kenya and Tanzania, respectively. The two pests were monitored by using their respective parapheromone lures for two years between August 2012 and July 2014. Fruit damage was assessed by computing the proportion of infested fruits for B. dorsalis, whereas the damage score was used for T. leucotreta. Our results indicated that the mean number of B. dorsalis per trap per day differed significantly across elevation, being highest in lowland zone for both Taita Hills (15.90) and Mount Kilimanjaro (24.45). Similarly, the percentage infestation of ground collected fruits by B. dorsalis varied with altitude, being lowest at highlands above 1500 m.a.s.l. (0.66% and 0.83% for Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro, respectively). Conversely, the mean number of T. leucotreta did not vary with altitude in either study area. However, the damage score for T. leucotreta infestation was significantly lower in the highlands of both transects (7.0% and11.1% for Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro, respectively). These findings describe spatial trends that are important in formulating strategies aimed at suppressing the populations of B. dorsalis and T. leucotreta in East African avocado cropping systems.

Potential distribution dataset of honeybees in Indian Ocean Islands: Case study of Zanzibar Island

Honeybees (Apis mellifera) are principal insect pollinators, whose worldwide distribution and abundance is known to largely depend on climatic conditions. However, the presence records dataset on potential distribution of honeybees in Indian Ocean Islands remain less documented. Presence records in shape format and probability of occurrence of honeybees with different temperature change scenarios is provided in this article across Zanzibar Island. Maximum entropy (Maxent) package was used to analyse the potential distribution of honeybees. The dataset provides information on the current and future distribution of the honey bees in Zanzibar Island. The dataset is of great importance for improving stakeholders understanding of the role of temperature change on the spatial distribution of honeybees.

Datasets on abundance of common blossom thrips and weather variables in small-scale avocado orchards at Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro

Avocado, Persea americana Miller (Lauraceae), is an important fruit crop cultivated by small-holder farmers along Afrotropical highlands of Taita Hills in South-eastern Kenya and Mount Kilimanjaro in Northern Tanzania. The small-holder farmers in these East African regions generate substantial food and cash from avocado fruits. However, the avocado crop is faced with challenges of infestation by insect pests such as the common blossom thrips (Frankliniella schultzei Trybom) which feeds on pollen and floral tissue thereby reducing productivity of the trees. Moreover, there is no information describing distribution patterns of Frankliniella schultzei and associated weather in East African avocado orchards despite the fact that small-scale farming is dependent on rainfall. This article was, therefore, initiated to provide dataset on abundance of Frankliniella schultzei from the avocado plants that relates with monthly rainfall and air temperatures at Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro. Frankliniella schultzei was collected using white coloured beating tray and camel brush whereas air temperatures (°C) and rainfall (mm) was recorded daily using automatic data loggers and rain gauge, respectively. The survey at the two transects commenced during peak flowering season of avocado crop in August up to end of harvesting period in July of the following year. Temporal datasets were generated by Kruskal-Wallis Chi-square test. Current temporal datasets presents strong baseline information specifically for Kenya and Tanzania government agencies to develop further agricultural strategies aimed at improving avocado farming within Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro agro-ecosystems.