Slah Bahloul

A Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Goal Programming Approach to International Portfolio Selection in the Presence of Investment Barriers

The aim of this paper is to develop an integrated multiple criteria decision making approach combining the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the goal programming (GP) model to study the impact of a mixture of investment barriers on international portfolio selection, and therefore the home bias puzzle from the viewpoint of G-7 investors over the period 2001-2009. The AHP is used to determine the suitable international equity portfolios with respect to seven barriers to international investment. The GP model, incorporating the market weights of the maximum return, minimal variance, and AHP portfolios is formulated to determine the optimal international equity portfolios. The main results show that the AHP-GP optimal international portfolio weights are different from those predicted by the I-CAPM. Also, except for French and US investors, home bias values determined according to the AHP-GP portfolios are lower than those calculated on the basis of the value-weighted world market portfolio.

Regime-Switching Behaviour in the Conditional Volatility of MENA Stock Market Returns

The objective of this article is to investigate the behaviour of the time-varying volatility in 11 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries’ stock market using a three-state Markov regime switching model over the period from 30 October 2006 to 21 October 2011. We find that MENA stock market volatility can be characterised by three regimes: tranquil period with low volatility of volatility, turmoil regime with high volatility of volatility and crisis regime with extremely high volatility of volatility. Besides, the Granger causation effects from the MSCI World index to MENA stock markets are stronger and statistically significant especially in crisis regime. JEL Classification: F30, G01, G15

The Determinants of Domestic and Foreign Biases: An Empirical Study

The international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), based on traditional portfolio theory developed by Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965), suggests that, to maximize risk-adjusted returns, investors should hold a world market portfolio of risky assets. However, domestic assets are heavily weighted in investors’ portfolios even after the relaxing of capital control after 1980. For example, in 1997, 89.9 percent of US investors’ equity portfolios were domestic equities, while the size of the USA in world market capitalization was about 48.3 percent (Ahearne et al., 2004). The wide disparity between actual and recommended international equity portfolio weights constitutes the equity home bias, one of the unresolved puzzles in international finance literature.1

Further evidence on international Islamic and conventional portfolios diversification under regime switching

ABSTRACT This article investigates the comparative performance of International Islamic and conventional portfolio diversification across different financial market regimes and provides an optimal choice from an American investor’s viewpoint during the period 2002–2014. Using a bootstrap-based stochastic dominance (SD) test and monthly MSCI prices of Islamic stock market indices and their conventional counterparts in 38 countries from North and Latin America, Europe and Asia-Pacific regions, we find that SD relationships between Islamic and conventional optimal-diversified portfolios change systematically according to investment region and market regime. Essentially, for all regimes, US investors are indifferent between Islamic diversification and its conventional counterpart, which implies that arbitrage diversification opportunities are rare and short lived in all regions. However, across all regions, especially in a crisis regime, Islamic portfolio diversification can be a good substitute for conventional diversification. Islamic portfolio diversification in North and Latin America, Europe and Global regions is an optimal choice for the risk-averse American investors. Finally, results imply that portfolio diversification among Islamic market indices can be a good hedge, offering investors superior investment alternatives during any financial meltdown or economic slowdown due to the conservative nature of Sharia-compliant investments.

Regime Switching, Asymmetric Correlation and International Portfolio Choices

The aim of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of international equity returns and correlations using the discrete-time Markov-switching model and the impact of this behaviour on international portfolio choices. We take the perspective of a US-based global investor who considers investment across the six largest major markets over the period from December 1994 to July 2009. Results show that financial markets are characterised by two regimes: a bull and a bear market. Besides, correlations appear to be very important in a bear state and significantly different from those in the bull market. Finally, optimal portfolio weights vary considerably across regimes and over time as investors revise their estimates of the state probabilities.