Sofia Dermisi

Internet versus traditional office sales

This paper focuses on a comparison between Internet and traditionally presented and transacted office properties for sale in Boston/US and London/UK. This comparison provides a better understanding of the effect of the Internet on the real estate office market based on a data‐driven, rather than an opinion‐based, study. The study of both cities for a 6 month period, from September 2000 to February 2001, indicated that small properties are more likely to be sold through the Internet than in the traditional office market. Moreover, in both cities, there are differences in the distributions of price per square foot and area in square feet between Internet and traditionally transacted office properties.

Terrorism Prevention Measures for Office Buildings - a New Layering Approach

This paper describes how terrorist targets have change over time from specific individuals, aircrafts and government or military related installations to office buildings. Considering recent terrorism attacks targeting office buildings the one that tops the number of victims is the September 11, 2001 World Trade Center attacks in New York. This terrorism incident, along with the threat of other attacks towards office buildings, has modified the perspective of owners and management companies towards security of office buildings in a post September 11, 2001 context in the U.S. The initial reaction, of general security measures with an unclear prevention role, should be replaced by improved and more thorough decision-making process of prevention measures targeting specific types of threats for specific buildings. This paper proposes the development of a layered approach in terrorism prevention through the formation of Building Security Task Forces (BSTF), which will utilize a number of security measures outlined in the paper. The main role of a SBTF is the protection of their property by the implementation of existing security measures as well as cross-collaboration with law enforcement and emergency management agencies allowing the development of contingency plans to address terrorism most effectively. In addition, the city of Chicago is used as a case study, because of the several corporate headquarters, high-rise and trophy buildings.

Using GIS to measure the impact of the Canterbury earthquakes on house prices in Christchurch, NZ

Purpose Canterbury, New Zealand, experienced two significant earthquakes in 2010 and 2011 with a devastating impact on both houses and land. Negative media attention to the potential financial risks of living near or on the new Technical Category 3 (TC3) land or on land in a flood zone has fuelled the perception of uncertainty over the negative property price impacts. This research aims to determine if residents’ perceptions of the risks associated with various types of land zones (e.g. TC1, TC2 and TC3) are reflected in property prices. Design/methodology/approach This research analyses sale price patterns and the relationship between sale prices and house characteristics before and after both earthquakes. A three-step approach was taken by applying: an average trend analysis, Geographic Information Systems’ (GIS) hotspot analysis to identify possible spatial differentiations between the before and after-effects of the earthquakes and hedonic modelling to quantify the effect of house characteristics on sale price while controlling for and comparing three land zones (TC1 to TC3). Findings The data suggest that average sale prices increased after both quakes in TC1 and TC2 in contrast to TC3 zones, while close to 8,000 structures were demolished in red zones from 2010-2013 (supply was reduced). The econometric modelling suggests that higher sale prices are achieved by: newer houses across all land zones and more recent sale agreements only in TC1 and TC2 zones. Other observations include the effect of certain exterior facade materials on sale prices on the overall data set and in the individual TC1 and TC3 zones. In conclusion, the results suggest that although caution might exist for the TC3 zone, the quality of the house can override the stigma attached to the TC3 zones. Research limitations/implications A confounding factor in the research was that approximately 7,800 homes were rezoned red and/or demolished between 2010 and 2013 changing the supply and demand balance. Further, banks and other lenders updated their requirements for new lending on properties in the Canterbury region, requiring a number of reports from professionals such as structural engineers, geotechnical engineers and valuers before any new lending would be approved. Additionally, immediately after the September and February earthquakes, there was a 21-day stand-down period for earthquake-cover in Canterbury and without adequate insurance cover banks would not advance mortgage money, causing a short-term slowdown in the residential property market. Practical/implications The outcomes of this research will be of interest to government agencies tasked with assessing compensation for affected property owners. For example, the Earthquake Commission (EQC) developed a Diminution of Value Methodology for Increased Flooding Vulnerability that formed the basis of a High Court declaratory judgment decision in December 2014 that cleared the way for the EQC to start settling properties with increased flooding vulnerability. The EQC methodology was informed by the results of similar studies to this one, from around the world. Homeowners and rating valuers will also be interested in the results to understand how house prices have been affected by market perceptions towards earthquake damage, particularly in the worst-affected areas. Originality/value This study fills a research void regarding the price impacts of residents’ perceptions of the risks associated with various types of land zones that reflect the expected future liquefaction performance of the land.

Social media, civil unrest and fallout for cities and hotels

The density of cities has led them to experience various levels of civil unrests which span peaceful protests to violent riots. Triggering mechanism of such events can be economic or political conditions and ideological or religious divides. In recent years we have seen social media (facebook, tweeter etc.) play an increasing role in organizing protests and disseminating information to a broader base, therefore magnifying the potential fallout for a city. From the Arab Spring in Egypt to the riots in England, Turkey and Ferguson/Baltimore in the US social media were used by various groups to expand the civil unrest, with the government in certain cases taking the unprecedented measure of blocking social media. In response to such social media use emergency responders are now trying to monitor such platforms to allow for an effective response to potential violent actions.The paper focuses on the use of social media in triggering civil unrest and the short and long-term effects for cities/countries and their hotel industry. A combination of socioeconomic and hotel performance indicators [Average-Daily-Rate (ADR) and Revenue-Per-Available-Room (RevPAR) for luxury, mid-price and economy hotels] are used to assess the effect of such events in recent years. The preliminary results suggest that more intense civil unrest even within a short period of time has lasting effects for cities as well as the luxury hotels. Longer unrests have additional spillover effects among mid-price hotels.

Dense urban cores: Are they becoming breading grounds and targets of terrorists?

In recent years terrorists have increasingly targeted multiple highly populated areas within an urban core with the most recent one being in Paris, France. The reasons for coordinated attacks in dense urban cores are many, including media coverage, mass casualties, security force dispersion/distraction and instigation of fear to name a few. Beyond the short to medium term effect these attacks have on the population and real estate assets, terrorists use their networks through a dense core for concealment, preparation, scouting for potential targets as well as shortterm sheltering. The paper analyzes previous attacks, identifies lessons learned and provides various proactive recommendations. It also raises certain concerns especially in light of the significant inflow of illegal immigrants and those claiming refugee status across Europe who are petitioning asylum, which may not be granted. A possible denial of asylum will create significant tensions within the established and non-established holding areas of these masses with possible spoil over effects in urban cores.

Global comparative effects of civil unrests on hotel performance

Civil unrest is an old phenomenon with causes spanning from economic conditions to political, ideological, religious and other perceived oppressions or limitations by a portion of an area’s population. The level of unrest can span the full spectrum of crowd dynamics, from peaceful demonstrations to riots, with their fall-out effects causing minimal to significant damage in both the urban environment as well as the urban fabric. The extent, intensity and time-frame of the civil unrests affect an area’s commerce, with hotels being in the forefront of such risk due to the perceived fear resulting in reservation cancellations and therefore lost income for owners of this real estate asset type.The paper focuses on hotel performance in select countries across continents which experienced civil unrest due to the financial crisis, occupy and political movements (e.g. Arab Spring) as well as radical or racial tensions. Utilizing hotel data from 2000 through the beginning of 2015 the paper explores the links between performance indicators, such as Average-Daily-Rate (ADR) and Revenue-Per-Available-Room (RevPAR) with civil unrest variables while differentiating among luxury, mid-price and economy hotels.Two distinct methodologies are applied: a) identification of densities and clustering of civil unrest events and hotel performance trends with the use of GIS and b) econometric analysis with the use of fixed effect regression modeling. The initial results suggest that economic and radical unrests affect more deeply hotel performance compared to others.