Sofia Gouveia

Export Performance of Southeastern European Countries

Over the last decades, the European Union (EU) member states have been subject to intensive globalization and international competition, a fact that poses both challenges and opportunities. Additionally, the recent global financial crisis implied a fall in output across economies that was accompanied by a severe contraction in international trade. As a result, countries and firms have had to adjust and actively participate in this new market environment. This paper examines the export dynamics of four Balkan EU member states over the period 1999–2014. The results revealed that there is a tendency for an increase in exports, that persistent trade deficits have decreased since 2008 and that the share of high and medium-high technology manufactured goods has increased, particularly in the case of Romania. The results also indicate some specificities of export performance of Greece, Croatia and Bulgaria, which have had a trade surplus for services throughout the period, suggesting the importance of the tourism sector. We further discuss the main factor that could contribute to enhancing the competitiveness of European countries. Higher foreign demand is found to lead to more exports as is a depreciation in the real foreign exchange rate, although price and income elasticities vary across studies and according to the estimation technique adopted. The evidence also suggests that non-price factors (such as quality, variety, innovation and institutions) are value drivers of exports.

International demand for the Douro (Portugal) river cruises: A gravity model approach

Cruises on the Portuguese Douro river have been growing at a much faster pace than overall outbound tourism to Portugal, suggesting that the river is part of a worldwide trend that has been organized by global cruise operators. A gravity model is used to analyse the main factors affecting the international demand for Douro river cruising over the period from 2007 to 2014. The numbers of international passengers are positively determined by income per capita of origin country and by the population size of the leading countries of outbound tourism to Portugal.

Export Specialisation and Output Synchronisation in the Euro Area: The Case of Southern Countries

Business cycle synchronisation and the similarity in the sectoral structure of exports are key conditions for the successful implementation of common monetary policy, as shown by the theory of Optimum Currency Areas. This paper examines the degree of correlation between the aggregate euro area and 12 member states’ business cycles and the role of their exports specialisation dynamics vis-a-vis the euro area over the period 1981–2012, focusing in particular on Southern European countries. Overall, we find that since the inception of the European Monetary Union, the business cycles of euro area member states have been increasingly synchronised with the aggregate euro area cycle, with the exception of Greece. We also document that changes in the Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish export structures brought these countries closer to the euro area structure as a whole. Furthermore, we find a positive and significant relationship between the similarity of export structures and GDP cyclical correlations.