Sondoss El Sawah

Making Progress in Integrated Modelling and Environmental Decision Support

Integrated modelling and environmental decision support are increasingly important as society tackles some of the most complex challenges of our generation, with impacts on future generations. When integrated modelling is successful, the results can be transformational yet the core elements for generating that success are not always clear. There is an elusive element to finding the best mix of methods, models and approaches for any given problem. This raises issues for repeatability and questions regarding how the emerging metadiscipline will converge in order to consistently achieve quality results or increased understanding of the processes that lead to success. Key challenges include the need to diagnose elements that lead to successful process, training for professional and technical competencies, and increased access to stable platforms and interchangeable models and modelling tools. This paper aims to summarize some of the key process and product related challenges of integrated modelling and environmental decision support.

Design and implementation of a web-based groundwater data management system

Understanding and managing groundwater resources requires the integration of large amounts of high quality data from different sources. With the recent advances in GIS, data storage, web-based applications, and visualisation technologies, groundwater data management has entered a new phase. Currently in Australia (like many other countries), hydrological and groundwater data are collected and managed by many agencies, scattered in various formats and locations, and cannot be easily accessed by the public. This paper elaborates on the overall process of developing a web-based groundwater data management system in support of a unified framework for groundwater data collection and management. This unified framework is to facilitate access to the dispersed collections of data. The goal of the data management system under development is to provide a platform for collecting, storing, and sharing monitoring data within a larger network of data providers and end users (e.g. researchers, field site managers, public). We describe the system architecture, the open source tools, and technologies used for implementation. The proposed system is flexible, accommodating different data types and sources, and can be expanded to include new field sites. Experience throughout the project demonstrates that ongoing communication among developers, field managers, and researchers, is essential to help resolve some of the technical/implementation problems and linguistic ambiguities that may arise throughout the data collection and automation process.

Fostering assumption-based stress-test thinking in managing groundwater systems: learning to avoid failures due to basic dynamics

Sustainable groundwater resource management can only be achieved if planning processes address the basic dynamics of the groundwater system. Conceptual and distributed groundwater models do not necessarily translate into an understanding of how a plan might operate in reality. Prompted by Australian experiences, ‘iterative closed-question modelling’ has been used to develop a process of iterative dialogue about management options, objectives and knowledge. Simple hypothetical models of basic system dynamics that satisfy agreed assumptions are used to stress-test the ability of a proposed management plan to achieve desired future conditions. Participants learn from models in which a plan succeeds and fails, updating their assumptions, expectations or plan. Their new understanding is tested against further hypothetical models. The models act as intellectual devices that confront users with new scenarios to discuss. This theoretical approach is illustrated using simple one and two-cell groundwater models that convey basic notions of capture and spatial impacts of pumping. Simple extensions can address uncertain climate, managed-aquifer recharge and alternate water sources. Having learnt to address the dynamics captured by these models, participants may be better placed to address local conditions and develop more effective arrangements to achieve management outcomes.RésuméLa gestion durable des ressources en eaux souterraines ne peut être atteinte que si les processus de planification prennent en considération la dynamique de base du système des eaux souterraines. Des modèles conceptuels et distribués des eaux souterraines ne se traduisent pas nécessairement en une compréhension des conséquences pour un plan de gestion dans la réalité. A partir d’expériences australiennes, une approche itérative de questions fermées relatives à la modélisation a été utilisée pour développer un processus de dialogue itératif concernant des options de gestion, d’objectifs et de connaissance. Des modèles hypothétiques simples de systèmes basiques dynamiques qui satisfont les hypothèses convenues, sont utilisés pour des tests contraints de capacité d’un plan de gestion proposé pour atteindre des conditions futures souhaitées. Les participants apprennent à partir des modèles pour lesquels un plan de gestion réussit ou échoue, en mettant à jour leurs hypothèses, attentes ou plan. Leur nouvelle compréhension est testée avec d’autres modèles hypothétiques. Les modèles agissent comme des dispositifs intellectuels auxquels les utilisateurs confrontent de nouveaux scénarios à discuter. Cette approche théorique est illustrée à l’aide de modèles simples à deux cellules intégrant les notions de base de captage et d’effets de pompage. Des extensions simples peuvent permettre d’adresser des questions liées à l’incertitude climatique, à la gestion raisonnée des aquifères par recharge et autres ressources en eau. Ayant appris à aborder les dynamiques intégrées dans ces modèles, les participants peuvent être mieux armés pour aborder des conditions locales de gestion et élaborer des accords plus efficaces pour atteindre des résultats en matière de gestion.ResumenEl manejo sustentable del recurso de agua subterránea solo puede ser logrado si los procesos de planificación cumplen con la dinámica básica del sistema de agua subterránea. Los modelos conceptuales y distribuidos de aguas subterráneas no necesariamente se traducen en un entendimiento de cómo un plan podría operar en realidad. Motivado por experiencias australianas, se usó la modelación iterativa de cuestiones cerradas para desarrollar un proceso de diálogo iterativo acerca de las opciones de manejo, los objetivos y el conocimiento. Se utilizaron modelos simples hipotéticos de sistemas básicos de la dinámica que satisfacen la suposición aceptada para probar con alta exigencia la habilidad de un plan de manejo propuesto para lograr las condiciones futuras deseadas. Los participantes aprenden de modelos en los cuales un plan tiene éxito y falla, actualizando sus suposiciones, expectativas o plan. Su nueva comprensión es probada contra futuros modelos hipotéticos. Estos modelos actúan como dispositivos intelectuales que confrontan usuarios con nuevos escenarios a discutir. Este enfoque teórico se ilustra usando modelos simples de una o dos celdas que conllevan nociones básicas de captura y de impactos espaciales del bombeo. Extensiones simples pueden tener en cuenta las incertezas climáticas, la recarga manejada de acuíferos y fuentes de agua alternativas. Después de haber aprendido a evaluar a la dinámica capturada por estos modelos, los participantes pueden estar mejor colocados para satisfacer condiciones locales y desarrollar arreglos más efectivos para lograr resultados en la gestión.摘要只有规划过程重点关注地下水系统的基本动力学,才能实现可持续的地下水资源管理。概念地下水模型和分散式地下水模型未必要了解规划在现实中是怎样运行的。受澳大利亚的研究经验启发,利用迭代封闭询问模拟研发了有关管理选项、管理目标和管理知识的迭代对话过程。用能够满足约定假设的基本系统动力学简单假设模型应力测试提出的管理规划的能力,这个管理规划就是获取期望的未来状况。参与者从模型中学习,不管其中的规划是成功和失败,以更新他们的假设、期望值或者规划。他们的新认识面对未来的假设模型进行了测试。模型充当着智力工具,这个工具就是面对着具有新方案要讨论的用户。采用能够传达抽水时空间影响的基本概念的简单的一个及两个单元地下水模型描述了这个理论研究方法。简单延伸可重点关注不确定的气候、管理的含水层补给和交替的水源。熟知重点关注通过这些模型获取的动力学系统,参与者可更好地重点关注具体情况,做出更有效的安排,以获取最佳管理成果。ResumoA gestão sustentável da água subterrânea pode apenas ser alcançada se os processos de planeamento abordarem a dinâmica básica do sistema de águas subterrâneas. Os modelos concetuais e distribuídos de águas subterrâneas não se traduzem necessariamente numa compreensão de como um plano pode funcionar na realidade. Estimulado por experiências australianas, um modelo interativo de questões fechadas tem sido usado para desenvolver um processo de diálogo interativo sobre opções de gestão, objetivos e conhecimentos. São usados modelos hipotéticos simples de sistemas dinâmicos básicos que satisfazem pressupostos acordados para fazer testes de stress da capacidade de um plano de gestão proposto para alcançar condições desejadas no futuro. Os participantes aprendem a partir de modelos em que um plano apresenta sucessos e falhas, atualizando suas suposições, expetativas ou plano. O novo entendimento é testado contra outros modelos hipotéticos. Os modelos funcionam como dispositivos intelectuais que confrontam os utilizadores com novos cenários a discutir. Esta abordagem teórica é ilustrada usando modelos de água subterrânea simples de uma e duas células que contêm noções básicas de captura e impactes espaciais dos bombeamentos. Extensões simples podem levar em consideração as incertezas climáticas, a gestão da recarga aquífera e as fontes de água alternativas. Tendo aprendido a lidar com a dinâmica funcional destes modelos, os participantes podem estar em melhores condições para definir condições locais e desenvolver mecanismos mais eficazes para atingir os resultados de gestão.

Groundwater salinization intensifies drought impacts in forests and reduces refuge capacity

1. Shallow groundwater aquifers regularly support drought refuges for water-dependent ecosystems. However, many aquifers are impacted by over-extraction and pollution, potentially degrading their ability to support groundwater-fed drought refuges. 2. We investigated the response of groundwater-connected riverine forests to a drought considered equivalent in intensity to those predicted under severe climate change for 2030. The drought’s impact was investigated in an area where shallow groundwater resources are heavily exploited and polluted by salinization. 3. We used remotely sensed vegetation productivity (enhanced vegetation index) data from a long-term data set (2000–2011) at 475 riverine forest sites in the Campaspe catchment, southeastern Australia. Generalized additive mixed models and boosted regression trees were used to model the relationship between groundwater and other environmental covariates with forest change during drought. 4. Models explained up to 44% of the variation in forest change during drought. Forests underwent the greatest declines in areas of high salinity (>6000 lS cm-1) associated with shallow groundwater depths (0–5 m). Conversely, forests in areas of lowest salinity (<2000 lS cm-1) and groundwater depths of more than 7-5 m showed the least decline during drought. 5. In landscapes where groundwater quality is not compromised, previous studies have shown that shallow groundwater provides important drought refuges and refugia. Here, we show that when groundwater salinization has occurred, forests connected to shallow groundwater are more vulnerable to drought. In effect, salinization reduces the capacity of groundwater-connected habitats to function as drought refuges. 6. Synthesis and applications. Currently, there is an emphasis on managing environmental flows to support freshwater ecosystems and associated forests under water stress. However, delivery of environmental water is restricted to areas within a linear stream network and there is often limited capacity to deliver environmental flows during drought. Alternatively, a focus on drought refuges and refugia and processes important for maintaining groundwater quality (e.g. catchment revegetation to reduce shallow groundwater salinization) may better allow drought effects to be managed across a catchment, without directly focusing on highly contested surface water resources.

Using Cognitive Mapping to Elicit Modelling Requirements: An Overview

Water management arises in the context of social systems where human perceptions form the basis for problem definition. Actors construct various cognitive interpretations of the problem causes, and therefore, preferred solutions and responsibility attribution. Differences in interpretations may lead to conflicts, ambiguity, policy controversies and partial solutions. Thus, it is essential to share and align different interpretations as a way towards the design of integrated strategies that accommodate multiple interests and views. Interactive simulators are promising tools to facilitate communication among actors. This research aims to develop a simulation tool that can be used for learning and communication about water issues. We make use of soft (e.g. cognitive mapping) and hard systems thinking (system dynamics) techniques for requirements elicitation and tool design. This paper provides an overview on the development process.

Modelling for Managing the Complex Issue of Catchment-Scale Surface and Groundwater Allocation

The management of surface and groundwater can be regarded as presenting resource dilemmas. These are situations where multiple users share a common resource pool, and make contested claims about their rights to access the resource, and the best use and distribution of the resource among competing needs. Overshadowed by uncertainties caused by limited data and lack of scientific knowledge, resource dilemmas are challenging to manage, often leading to controversies and disputes about policy issues and outcomes. In the case of surface and groundwater management, the design of collective policies needs to be informed by a holistic understanding of different water uses and outcomes under different water availability and sharing scenarios. In this paper, we present an integrated modelling framework for assessing the combined impacts of changes in climate conditions and water allocation policies on surface and groundwater-dependent economic and ecological systems. We are implementing the framework in the Namoi catchment, Australia. However, the framework can be transferred and adapted for uses, including water planning, in other agricultural catchments.