Sonia Altizer

Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: From Evidence to a Predictive Framework

Scientists have long predicted large-scale responses of infectious diseases to climate change, giving rise to a polarizing debate, especially concerning human pathogens for which socioeconomic drivers and control measures can limit the detection of climate-mediated changes. Climate change has already increased the occurrence of diseases in some natural and agricultural systems, but in many cases, outcomes depend on the form of climate change and details of the host-pathogen system. In this review, we highlight research progress and gaps that have emerged during the past decade and develop a predictive framework that integrates knowledge from ecophysiology and community ecology with modeling approaches. Future work must continue to anticipate and monitor pathogen biodiversity and disease trends in natural ecosystems and identify opportunities to mitigate the impacts of climate-driven disease emergence.

Animal Migration and Infectious Disease Risk

Animal migrations are often spectacular, and migratory species harbor zoonotic pathogens of importance to humans. Animal migrations are expected to enhance the global spread of pathogens and facilitate cross-species transmission. This does happen, but new research has also shown that migration allows hosts to escape from infected habitats, reduces disease levels when infected animals do not migrate successfully, and may lead to the evolution of less-virulent pathogens. Migratory demands can also reduce immune function, with consequences for host susceptibility and mortality. Studies of pathogen dynamics in migratory species and how these will respond to global change are urgently needed to predict future disease risks for wildlife and humans alike.

Urbanization and the ecology of wildlife diseases

Urbanization is intensifying worldwide, with two-thirds of the human population expected to reside in cities within 30 years. The role of cities in human infectious disease is well established, but less is known about how urban landscapes influence wildlife–pathogen interactions. Here, we draw on recent advances in wildlife epidemiology to consider how environmental changes linked with urbanization can alter the biology of hosts, pathogens and vectors. Although urbanization reduces the abundance of many wildlife parasites, transmission can, in some cases, increase among urban-adapted hosts, with effects on rarer wildlife or those living beyond city limits. Continued rapid urbanization, together with risks posed by multi-host pathogens for humans and vulnerable wildlife populations, emphasize the need for future research on wildlife diseases in urban landscapes.

Comparative Tests of Parasite Species Richness in Primates

Some hosts harbor diverse parasite communities, whereas others are relatively parasite free. Many factors have been proposed to account for patterns of parasite species richness, but few studies have investigated competing hypotheses among multiple parasite communities in the same host clade. We used a comparative data set of 941 host‐parasite combinations, representing 101 anthropoid primate species and 231 parasite taxa, to test the relative importance of four sets of variables that have been proposed as determinants of parasite community diversity in primates: host body mass and life history, social contact and population density, diet, and habitat diversity. We defined parasites broadly to include not only parasitic helminths and arthropods but also viruses, bacteria, fungi, and protozoa, and we controlled for effects of uneven sampling effort on per‐host measures of parasite diversity. In nonphylogenetic tests, body mass was correlated with total parasite diversity and the diversity of helminths and viruses. When phylogeny was taken into account, however, body mass became nonsignificant. Host population density, a key determinant of parasite spread in many epidemiological models, was associated consistently with total parasite species richness and the diversity of helminths, protozoa, and viruses tested separately. Geographic range size and day range length explained significant variation in the diversity of viruses.

Infectious diseases and extinction risk in wild mammals.

Abstract:  Parasite‐driven declines in wildlife have become increasingly common and can pose significant risks to natural populations. We used the IUCN Red List of Threatened and Endangered Species and compiled data on hosts threatened by infectious disease and their parasites to better understand the role of infectious disease in contemporary host extinctions. The majority of mammal species considered threatened by parasites were either carnivores or artiodactyls, two clades that include the majority of domesticated animals. Parasites affecting host threat status were predominantly viruses and bacteria that infect a wide range of host species, including domesticated animals. Counter to our predictions, parasites transmitted by close contact were more likely to cause extinction risk than those transmitted by other routes. Mammal species threatened by parasites were not better studied for infectious diseases than other threatened mammals and did not have more parasites or differ in four key traits demonstrated to affect parasite species richness in other comparative studies. Our findings underscore the need for better information concerning the distribution and impacts of infectious diseases in populations of endangered mammals. In addition, our results suggest that evolutionary similarity to domesticated animals may be a key factor associated with parasite‐mediated declines; thus, efforts to limit contact between domesticated hosts and wildlife could reduce extinction risk.

Virulence-transmission trade-offs and population divergence in virulence in a naturally occurring butterfly parasite

Why do parasites harm their hosts? Conventional wisdom holds that because parasites depend on their hosts for survival and transmission, they should evolve to become benign, yet many parasites cause harm. Theory predicts that parasites could evolve virulence (i.e., parasite-induced reductions in host fitness) by balancing the transmission benefits of parasite replication with the costs of host death. This idea has led researchers to predict how human interventions—such as vaccines—may alter virulence evolution, yet empirical support is critically lacking. We studied a protozoan parasite of monarch butterflies and found that higher levels of within-host replication resulted in both higher virulence and greater transmission, thus lending support to the idea that selection for parasite transmission can favor parasite genotypes that cause substantial harm. Parasite fitness was maximized at an intermediate level of parasite replication, beyond which the cost of increased host mortality outweighed the benefit of increased transmission. A separate experiment confirmed genetic relationships between parasite replication and virulence, and showed that parasite genotypes from two monarch populations caused different virulence. These results show that selection on parasite transmission can explain why parasites harm their hosts, and suggest that constraints imposed by host ecology can lead to population divergence in parasite virulence.

Viruses of the Serengeti: Patterns of Infection and Mortality in African Lions

Summary 1. We present data on the temporal dynamics of six viruses that infect lions (Panthera leo) in the Serengeti National Park and Ngorongoro Crater, Tanzania. These populations have been studied continuously for the past 30 years, and previous research has documented their seroprevalence for feline herpesvirus, feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), feline calicivirus, feline parvovirus, feline coronavirus and canine distemper virus (CDV). A seventh virus, feline leukaemia virus (FeLV), was absent from these animals. 2. Comprehensive analysis reveals that feline herpesvirus and FIV were consistently prevalent at high levels, indicating that they were endemic in the host populations. Feline calici‐, parvo‐ and coronavirus, and CDV repeatedly showed a pattern of seroprevalence that was indicative of discrete disease epidemics: a brief period of high exposure for each virus was followed by declining seroprevalence. 3. The timing of viral invasion suggests that different epidemic viruses are associated with different minimum threshold densities of susceptible hosts. Furthermore, the proportion of susceptibles that became infected during disease outbreaks was positively correlated with the number of susceptible hosts at the beginning of each outbreak. 4. Examination of the relationship between disease outbreaks and host fitness suggest that these viruses do not affect birth and death rates in lions, with the exception of the 1994 outbreak of canine distemper virus. Although the endemic viruses (FHV and FIV) were too prevalent to measure precise health effects, there was no evidence that FIV infection reduced host longevity.

Associations between host migration and the prevalence of a protozoan parasite in natural populations of adult monarch butterflies

1. Monarch butterflies Danaus plexippus (L.) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) are susceptible to infection by the obligate protozoan parasite Ophryocystis elektroscirrha (McLaughlin and Myers) (Apicomplexa: Neogregarinida). Because monarchs form resident and migratory populations in different parts of the world, this host–parasite system provides the opportunity to examine how variation in parasite prevalence relates to host movement patterns.

Linking anthropogenic resources to wildlife-pathogen dynamics: a review and meta-analysis.

Urbanisation and agriculture cause declines for many wildlife, but some species benefit from novel resources, especially food, provided in human-dominated habitats. Resulting shifts in wildlife ecology can alter infectious disease dynamics and create opportunities for cross-species transmission, yet predicting host–pathogen responses to resource provisioning is challenging. Factors enhancing transmission, such as increased aggregation, could be offset by better host immunity due to improved nutrition. Here, we conduct a review and meta-analysis to show that food provisioning results in highly heterogeneous infection outcomes that depend on pathogen type and anthropogenic food source. We also find empirical support for behavioural and immune mechanisms through which human-provided resources alter host exposure and tolerance to pathogens. A review of recent theoretical models of resource provisioning and infection dynamics shows that changes in host contact rates and immunity produce strong non-linear responses in pathogen invasion and prevalence. By integrating results of our meta-analysis back into a theoretical framework, we find provisioning amplifies pathogen invasion under increased host aggregation and tolerance, but reduces transmission if provisioned food decreases dietary exposure to parasites. These results carry implications for wildlife disease management and highlight areas for future work, such as how resource shifts might affect virulence evolution.

Ecological and anthropogenic drivers of rabies exposure in vampire bats: implications for transmission and control

Despite extensive culling of common vampire bats in Latin America, lethal human rabies outbreaks transmitted by this species are increasingly recognized, and livestock rabies occurs with striking frequency. To identify the individual and population-level factors driving rabies virus (RV) transmission in vampire bats, we conducted a longitudinal capture–recapture study in 20 vampire bat colonies spanning four regions of Peru. Serology demonstrated the circulation of RV in vampire bats from all regions in all years. Seroprevalence ranged from 3 to 28 per cent and was highest in juvenile and sub-adult bats. RV exposure was independent of bat colony size, consistent with an absence of population density thresholds for viral invasion and extinction. Culling campaigns implemented during our study failed to reduce seroprevalence and were perhaps counterproductive for disease control owing to the targeted removal of adults, but potentially greater importance of juvenile and sub-adult bats for transmission. These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms of RV maintenance in vampire bats and highlight the need for ecologically informed approaches to rabies prevention in Latin America.