Sonia Yeh

Land use greenhouse gas emissions from conventional oil production and oil sands.

Debates surrounding the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use of biofuels production have created a need to quantify the relative land use GHG intensity of fossil fuels. When contrasting land use GHG intensity of fossil fuel and biofuel production, it is the energy yield that greatly distinguishes the two. Although emissions released from land disturbed by fossil fuels can be comparable or higher than biofuels, the energy yield of oil production is typically 2-3 orders of magnitude higher, (0.33-2.6, 0.61-1.2, and 2.2 5.1 PJ/ha) for conventional oil production, oil sands surface mining, and in situ production, respectively). We found that land use contributes small portions of GHGs to life cycle emissions of California crude and in situ oil sands production ( <0.4% or < 0.4 gCO₂e/MJ crude refinery feedstock) and small to modest portions for Alberta conventional oil (0.1-4% or 0.1-3.4 gCO₂e/MJ) and surface mining of oil sands (0.9-11% or 0.8-10.2 gCO₂e/MJ).Our estimates are based on assumptions aggregated over large spatial and temporal scales and assuming 100% reclamation. Values on finer spatial and temporal scales that are relevant to policy targets need to account for site-specific information, the baseline natural and anthropogenic disturbance.

Life cycle water consumption and withdrawal requirements of ethanol from corn grain and residues.

We assessed the water requirements of ethanol from corn grain and crop residue. Estimates are explicit in terms of sources-green (GW) and blue (BW) water, consumptive and nonconsumptive requirements across the lifecycle, including evapotranspiration, application and conveyance losses, biorefinery uses, and water use of energy inputs, and displaced requirements or credits due to coproducts. Ethanol consumes 50-146 L/vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) of BW and 1-60 L/VKT of GW for irrigated corn and 0.6 L/VKT of BW and 70-137 L/VKT of GW for rain-fed corn after coproduct credits. Extending the system boundary to consider application and conveyance losses and the water requirements of embodied energy increases the total BW withdrawal from 23% to 38% and BW + GW consumption from 5% to 16%. We estimate that, in 2009, 15-19% of irrigation water is used to produce the corn required for ethanol in Kansas and Nebraska without coproduct credits and 8-10% after credits. Harvesting and converting the cob to ethanol reduces both the BW and GW intensities by 13%. It is worth noting that the use of GW is not without impacts, and the water quantity and water quality impacts at the local/seasonal scale can be significant for both fossil fuel and biofuel.

Assessment of Technologies to Meet a Low Carbon Fuel Standard

Californias low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) was designed to incentivize a diverse array of available strategies for reducing transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It provides strong incentives for fuels with lower GHG emissions, while explicitly requiring a 10% reduction in Californias transportation fuel GHG intensity by 2020. This paper investigates the potential for cost-effective GHG reductions from electrification and expanded use of biofuels. The analysis indicates that fuel providers could meet the standard using a portfolio approach that employs both biofuels and electricity, which would reduce the risks and uncertainties associated with the progress of cellulosic and battery technologies, feedstock prices, land availability, and the sustainability of the various compliance approaches. Our analysis is based on the details of Californias development of an LCFS; however, this research approach could be generalizable to a national U.S. standard and to similar programs in Europe and Canada.

Technology Innovations and Experience Curves for Nitrogen Oxides Control Technologies

Abstract This paper reviews the regulatory history for nitrogen oxides (NOx) pollutant emissions from stationary sources, primarily in coal-fired power plants. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is one of the six criteria pollutants regulated by the 1970 Clean Air Act where National Ambient Air Quality Standards were established to protect public health and welfare. We use patent data to show that in the cases of Japan, Germany, and the United States, innovations in NOx control technologies did not occur until stringent government regulations were in place, thus “forcing” innovation. We also demonstrate that reductions in the capital and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs of new generations of high-efficiency NOx control technologies, selective catalytic reduction (SCR), are consistently associated with the increasing adoption of the control technology: the so-called learning-by-doing phenomena. The results show that as cumulative world coal-fired SCR capacity doubles, capital costs decline to ~86% and O&M costs to 58% of their original values. The observed changes in SCR technology reflect the impact of technological advance as well as other factors, such as market competition and economies of scale.

Well-to-Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Canadian Oil Sands Products: Implications for U.S. Petroleum Fuels

Greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations affecting U.S. transportation fuels require holistic examination of the life-cycle emissions of U.S. petroleum feedstocks. With an expanded system boundary that included land disturbance-induced GHG emissions, we estimated well-to-wheels (WTW) GHG emissions of U.S. production of gasoline and diesel sourced from Canadian oil sands. Our analysis was based on detailed characterization of the energy intensities of 27 oil sands projects, representing industrial practices and technological advances since 2008. Four major oil sands production pathways were examined, including bitumen and synthetic crude oil (SCO) from both surface mining and in situ projects. Pathway-average GHG emissions from oil sands extraction, separation, and upgrading ranged from ∼6.1 to ∼27.3 g CO2 equivalents per megajoule (in lower heating value, CO2e/MJ). This range can be compared to ∼4.4 g CO2e/MJ for U.S. conventional crude oil recovery. Depending on the extraction technology and product type output of oil sands projects, the WTW GHG emissions for gasoline and diesel produced from bitumen and SCO in U.S. refineries were in the range of 100-115 and 99-117 g CO2e/MJ, respectively, representing, on average, about 18% and 21% higher emissions than those derived from U.S. conventional crudes. WTW GHG emissions of gasoline and diesel derived from diluted bitumen ranged from 97 to 103 and 96 to 104 g CO2e/MJ, respectively, showing the effect of diluent use on fuel emissions.

The Effect of Government Actions on Environmental Technology Innovation: Applications to the Integrated Assessment of Carbon Sequestration Technologies

This project seeks to improve the ability of integrated assessment models (IA) to incorporate changes in technology, especially environmental technologies, cost and performance over time. In this report, we present results of research that examines past experience in controlling other major power plant emissions that might serve as a reasonable guide to future rates of technological progress in carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) systems. In particular, we focus on U.S. and worldwide experience with sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and nitrogen oxide (NO{sub x}) control technologies over the past 30 years, and derive empirical learning rates for these technologies. The patterns of technology innovation are captured by our analysis of patent activities and trends of cost reduction over time. Overall, we found learning rates of 11% for the capital costs of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) system for SO{sub 2} control, and 13% for selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems for NO{sub x} control. We explore the key factors responsible for the observed trends, especially the development of regulatory policies for SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} control, and their implications for environmental control technology innovation.

National Low Carbon Fuel Standard: Policy Design Recommendations

The abundance and low cost of petroleum over the past 150 years has enabled rapid economic growth and extraordinary mobility advancements. But dependence on petroleum fuels also has large downsides, including dependence on insecure supplies, volatile prices causing high economic costs, polluted and unhealthy air, climate change, and increasing threats to local environments as production moves into more fragile areas. The transition to low-carbon alternative transportation fuels is becoming more urgent. But their introduction is inhibited by a long list of market conditions and failures. These include sunk investments and technology lock-in by the automotive and energy industries, other forms of technological and market inertia impeding investments in deployment and R&D, cartel pricing, and the failure of markets to assign a price to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Various policies might be adopted to overcome these market conditions and barriers, ranging from pure market instruments such as carbon taxes to prescriptive mandates and voluntary actions. Each has different advantages and disadvantages. Some are easier to implement administratively, some are more economically efficient, and some are more effective in accelerating investments. None is perfect. One of the most compelling, assuming some level of urgency, is a broad, performance-based policy that targets greenhouse gas reduction — what we refer to as a low carbon fuel standard (LCFS). In this report, we integrate scientific knowledge of alternative fuels — including an assessment of economic, administrative, institutional, equity, political, and technological considerations — to aid us in proposing a policy design for an LCFS for the United States. We have aimed for a policy design that would be effective, economically efficient, and broadly acceptable. An LCFS is a policy designed to accelerate the transition to low-carbon alternative transportation fuels by stimulating innovation and investment in new fuels and technologies. The goal is to provide a durable policy framework that will stimulate innovation and technological development. Since 2007, variations of an LCFS policy have been adopted by California, the European Union (Fuel Quality Directive, FQD), and British Columbia (Renewable and Low-Carbon Fuel Requirement Regulation, RLCFRR). Other states in the United States have been exploring the adoption of an LCFS policy, including states in the Midwest and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region, and the states of Oregon and Washington. The design of an LCFS is premised on the use of technology-neutral performance targets and credit trading, with the intent of harnessing market forces and providing industry with flexibility. It is also premised on the use of life-cycle measurements of GHG emissions, to assure that emissions are regulated effectively and scientifically. An LCFS is a hybrid of a regulatory and market policy instrument. It does not include mandates for any particular fuel or technology and as such does not attempt to pick winners or losers. Instead, it defines an average emissions intensity standard — measured in grams CO2 equivalent per mega-joule of fuel energy (gCO2e/MJ) — that all energy providers must achieve across all fuels they provide. Many options exist for meeting the standard. Regulated parties are free to employ any combination of strategies that suits their particular circumstances and perspectives — including the purchase of credits from other companies. The breadth and reach of an LCFS, and the challenge of implementing an innovative policy, means that adoption of a national LCFS will not be easy or straightforward and will require careful analysis and design. It is necessary to address the cost-effectiveness of the policy (compared with other similar GHG policies) and to analyze ease of administration, fairness, equity, market flexibility, and impacts on energy security and sustainability. We have done so in a companion report, National Low Carbon Fuel Standard: Technical Analysis Report (TAR). This Policy Design Recommendations (PDR) report builds on insights and findings from the TAR. Below we recommend key policy design principles that chart a path toward developing a national LCFS policy.

Recent Trends in Water Use and Production for California Oil Production

Recent droughts and concerns about water use for petroleum extraction renew the need to inventory water use for oil production. We quantified water volumes used and produced by conventional oil production and hydraulic fracturing (HF) in California. Despite a 25% decrease in conventional oil production from 1999 to 2012, total water use increased by 30% though much of that increase was derived from reuse of produced water. Produced water volumes increased by 50%, with increasing amounts disposed in unlined evaporation ponds or released to surface water. Overall freshwater use (constituting 1.2% of the states nonagricultural water consumption) increased by 46% during this period due to increased freshwater-intensive tertiary oil production. HF has been practiced in California for more than 30 years, accounting for 1% of total oil production in 2012 from mostly directional and vertical wells. Water use intensity for HF wells in California averaged at 3.5 vol water/vol oil production in 2012 and 2.4 vol/vol in 2013, higher than the range from literature estimates and net water use intensity of conventional production (1.2 vol/vol in 2012). Increasing water use and disposal for oil production have important implications for water management and have potentially adverse health, environmental, and ecological impacts.

Realizing the geothermal electricity potential?water use and consequences

Electricity from geothermal resources has the potential to supply a significant portion of US baseload electricity. We estimate the water requirements of geothermal electricity and the impact of potential scaling up of such electricity on water demand in various western states with rich geothermal resources but stressed water resources. Freshwater, degraded water, and geothermal fluid requirements are estimated explicitly. In general, geothermal electricity has higher water intensity (l kWh − 1) than thermoelectric or solar thermal electricity. Water intensity decreases with increase in resource enthalpy, and freshwater gets substituted by degraded water at higher resource temperatures. Electricity from enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) could displace 8–100% of thermoelectricity generated in most western states. Such displacement would increase stress on water resources if re-circulating evaporative cooling, the dominant cooling system in the thermoelectric sector, is adopted. Adoption of dry cooling, which accounts for 78% of geothermal capacity today, will limit changes in state-wide freshwater abstraction, but increase degraded water requirements. We suggest a research and development focus to develop advanced energy conversion and cooling technologies that reduce water use without imposing energy and consequent financial penalties. Policies should incentivize the development of higher enthalpy resources, and support identification of non-traditional degraded water sources and optimized siting of geothermal plants.

Land use change emissions from oil palm expansion in Pará, Brazil depend on proper policy enforcement on deforested lands

Brazil aims to increase palm oil production to meet the growing national and global demand for edible oil and biodiesel while preserving environmentally and culturally significant areas. As land use change (LUC) is the result of complex interactions between socio-economic and biophysical drivers operating at multiple temporal and spatial scales, the type and location of LUC depend on drivers such as neighboring land use, conversion elasticity, access to infrastructure, distance to markets, and land suitability. The purpose of this study is to develop scenarios to measure the impact of land conversion under three different enforcement scenarios (none, some, and strict enforcement). We found that converting 22.5 million hectares of land can produce approximately 29 billion gallons (110 billion liters) of biodiesel a year. Of that, 22‐71% of the area can come from forest land, conservation units, wetland and indigenous areas, emitting 14‐84 gCO2e MJ 1 . This direct land use emission alone can be higher than the carbon intensity of diesel that it intends to displace for lowering greenhouse gas emissions. This letter focuses narrowly on GHG emissions and does not address socio-economic‐ecological prospects for these degraded lands for palm oil or for other purposes. Future studies should carefully evaluate these tradeoffs.