Sonja B. Starr

Racial Disparity in Federal Criminal Sentences

Using rich data linking federal cases from arrest through to sentencing, we find that initial case and defendant characteristics, including arrest offense and criminal history, can explain most of the large raw racial disparity in federal sentences, but significant gaps remain. Across the distribution, blacks receive sentences that are almost 10 percent longer than those of comparable whites arrested for the same crimes. Most of this disparity can be explained by prosecutors’ initial charging decisions, particularly the filing of charges carrying mandatory minimum sentences. Ceteris paribus, the odds of black arrestees facing such a charge are 1.75 times higher than those of white arrestees.

The Odds of Justice: Actuarial Risk Prediction and the Criminal Justice System

Consider the following scenario: Two defendants, Robert and William, are convicted of the same crime—Each stole

Evidence-Based Sentencing and the Scientific Rationalization of Discrimination

10,000 worth of jewelry from a jewelry store. Neither has any prior convictions. In other ways, their situations differ. Robert is a regional manager of a jewelry store chain; he is 35, married, college-educated, grew up in a stable middle-class family, and now lives in a suburban house with a comfortable income. Over the course of several months, he stole a number of diamonds and replaced them with fakes, selling the proceeds and using them to pay for the lease on a luxury car. Meanwhile, William is 18 and unemployed. He grew up in a poor family that has relied on welfare and been periodically homeless; his mother is an occasionally verbally abusive drug user; his brother and father are incarcerated. William and his mother were recently evicted again. To try to earn money to rent a new apartment, William dropped out of high school and started looking for jobs at local businesses. However, after weeks of searching, he had no success. Frustrated, he saw an unlocked display case while passing a jewelry store and grabbed a handful of necklaces. He was caught moments later by a mall security guard. Should Robert and William be sentenced identically? If not, who should get the more serious sentence? Actuarial risk prediction and the criminal Justice system