Sonja Firth

Use of Bayesian geostatistical prediction to estimate local variations in Schistosoma haematobium infection in western Africa

OBJECTIVE To predict the subnational spatial variation in the number of people infected with Schistosoma haematobium in Burkina Faso, Mali and the Niger prior to national control programmes. METHODS We used field survey data sets covering a contiguous area 2750 x 850 km and including 26,790 school-age children (5-14 years old) in 418 schools. The prevalence of high- and low-intensity infection and associated 95% credible intervals (CrIs) were predicted using Bayesian geostatistical models. The number infected was determined from the predicted prevalence and the number of school-age children in each km(2). FINDINGS The predicted number of school-age children with a low-intensity infection was 433,268 in Burkina Faso, 872,328 in Mali and 580 286 in the Niger. The number with a high-intensity infection was 416,009, 511,845 and 254,150 in each country, respectively. The 95% CrIs were wide: e.g. the mean number of boys aged 10-14 years infected in Mali was 140,200 (95% CrI: 6200-512,100). CONCLUSION National aggregate estimates of infection mask important local variations:: e.g. most S. haematobium infections in the Niger occur in the Niger River valley. High-intensity infection was strongly clustered in western and central Mali, north-eastern and northwestern Burkina Faso and the Niger River valley in the Niger. Populations in these foci will carry the bulk of the urinary schistosomiasis burden and should be prioritized for schistosomiasis control. Uncertainties in the predicted prevalence and the numbers infected should be acknowledged by control programme planners.

Do strategies to improve quality of maternal and child health care in lower and middle income countries lead to improved outcomes? A review of the evidence

Objectives Efforts to scale-up maternal and child health services in lower and middle income countries will fail if services delivered are not of good quality. Although there is evidence of strategies to increase the quality of health services, less is known about the way these strategies affect health system goals and outcomes. We conducted a systematic review of the literature to examine this relationship. Methods We undertook a search of MEDLINE, SCOPUS and CINAHL databases, limiting the results to studies including strategies specifically aimed at improving quality that also reported a measure of quality and at least one indicator related to health system outcomes. Variation in study methodologies prevented further quantitative analysis; instead we present a narrative review of the evidence. Findings Methodologically, the quality of evidence was poor, and dominated by studies of individual facilities. Studies relied heavily on service utilisation as a measure of strategy success, which did not always correspond to improved quality. The majority of studies targeted the competency of staff and adequacy of facilities. No strategies addressed distribution systems, public-private partnership or equity. Key themes identified were the conflict between perceptions of patients and clinical measures of quality and the need for holistic approaches to health system interventions. Conclusion Existing evidence linking quality improvement strategies to improved MNCH outcomes is extremely limited. Future research would benefit from the inclusion of more appropriate indicators and additional focus on non-facility determinants of health service quality such as health policy, supply distribution, community acceptability and equity of care.

Equity and geography: the case of child mortality in Papua New Guinea.

Background Recent assessments show continued decline in child mortality in Papua New Guinea (PNG), yet complete subnational analyses remain rare. This study aims to estimate under-five mortality in PNG at national and subnational levels to examine the importance of geographical inequities in health outcomes and track progress towards Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4. Methodology We performed retrospective data validation of the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2006 using 2000 Census data, then applied advanced indirect methods to estimate under-five mortality rates between 1976 and 2000. Findings The DHS 2006 was found to be unreliable. Hence we used the 2000 Census to estimate under-five mortality rates at national and subnational levels. During the period under study, PNG experienced a slow reduction in national under-five mortality from approximately 103 to 78 deaths per 1,000 live births. Subnational analyses revealed significant disparities between rural and urban populations as well as inter- and intra-regional variations. Some of the provinces that performed the best (worst) in terms of under-five mortality included the districts that performed worst (best), with district-level under-five mortality rates correlating strongly with poverty levels and access to services. Conclusions The evidence from PNG demonstrates substantial within-province heterogeneity, suggesting that under-five mortality needs to be addressed at subnational levels. This is especially relevant in countries, like PNG, where responsibility for health services is devolved to provinces and districts. This study presents the first comprehensive estimates of under-five mortality at the district level for PNG. The results demonstrate that for countries that rely on few data sources even greater importance must be given to the quality of future population surveys and to the exploration of alternative options of birth and death surveillance.

Developing and costing local strategies to improve maternal and child health: the Investment Case Framework

Eliana Jimenez Soto and colleagues describe the Investment Case framework, a health systems research approach for planning and budgeting, and detail the implementation of the framework in four Asian countries to improve maternal, newborn and child health.

Integrating community-based verbal autopsy into civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS): system-level considerations

ABSTRACT Background: Reliable and representative cause of death (COD) statistics are essential to inform public health policy, respond to emerging health needs, and document progress towards Sustainable Development Goals. However, less than one-third of deaths worldwide are assigned a cause. Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems in low- and lower-middle-income countries are failing to provide timely, complete and accurate vital statistics, and it will still be some time before they can provide physician-certified COD for every death. Proposals: Verbal autopsy (VA) is a method to ascertain the probable COD and, although imperfect, it is the best alternative in the absence of medical certification. There is extensive experience with VA in research settings but only a few examples of its use on a large scale. Data collection using electronic questionnaires on mobile devices and computer algorithms to analyse responses and estimate probable COD have increased the potential for VA to be routinely applied in CRVS systems. However, a number of CRVS and health system integration issues should be considered in planning, piloting and implementing a system-wide intervention such as VA. These include addressing the multiplicity of stakeholders and sub-systems involved, integration with existing CRVS work processes and information flows, linking VA results to civil registration records, information technology requirements and data quality assurance. Conclusions: Integrating VA within CRVS systems is not simply a technical undertaking. It will have profound system-wide effects that should be carefully considered when planning for an effective implementation. This paper identifies and discusses the major system-level issues and emerging practices, provides a planning checklist of system-level considerations and proposes an overview for how VA can be integrated into routine CRVS systems.

Supporting local planning and budgeting for maternal, neonatal and child health in the Philippines.

BackgroundResponsibility for planning and delivery of health services in the Philippines is devolved to the local government level. Given the recognised need to strengthen capacity for local planning and budgeting, we implemented Investment Cases (IC) for Maternal, Neonatal and Child Health (MNCH) in three selected sub-national units: two poor, rural provinces and one highly-urbanised city. The IC combines structured problem-solving by local policymakers and planners to identify key health system constraints and strategies to scale-up critical MNCH interventions with a decision-support model to estimate the cost and impact of different scaling-up scenarios.MethodsWe outline how the initiative was implemented, the aspects that worked well, and the key limitations identified in the sub-national application of this approach.ResultsLocal officials found the structured analysis of health system constraints helpful to identify problems and select locally appropriate strategies. In particular the process was an improvement on standard approaches that focused only on supply-side issues. However, the lack of data available at the local level is a major impediment to planning. While the majority of the strategies recommended by the IC were incorporated into the 2011 plans and budgets in the three study sites, one key strategy in the participating city was subsequently reversed in 2012. Higher level systemic issues are likely to have influenced use of evidence in plans and budgets and implementation of strategies.ConclusionsEfforts should be made to improve locally-representative data through routine information systems for planning and monitoring purposes. Even with sound plans and budgets, evidence is only one factor influencing investments in health. Political considerations at a local level and issues related to decentralisation, influence prioritisation and implementation of plans. In addition to the strengthening of capacity at local level, a parallel process at a higher level of government to relieve fund channelling and coordination issues is critical for any evidence-based planning approach to have a significant impact on health service delivery.

Location matters: trends in inequalities in child mortality in Indonesia. Evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys

Background Considerable improvements in life expectancy and other human development indicators in Indonesia are thought to mask considerable disparities between populations in the country. We examine the existence and extent of these disparities by measuring trends and inequalities in the under-five mortality rate and neonatal mortality rate across wealth, education and geography. Methodology Using data from seven waves of the Indonesian Demographic and Health Surveys, direct estimates of under-five and neonatal mortality rates were generated for 1980–2011. Absolute and relative inequalities were measured by rate differences and ratios, and where possible, slope and relative indices of inequality. Disparities were assessed by levels of rural/urban location, island groups, maternal education and household wealth. Findings Declines in national rates of under-five and neonatal mortality have accorded with reductions of absolute inequalities in clusters stratified by wealth, maternal education and rural/urban location. Across these groups, relative inequalities have generally stabilised, with possible increases with respect to mortality across wealth subpopulations. Both relative and absolute inequalities in rates of under-five and neonatal mortality stratified by island divisions have widened. Conclusion Indonesia has made considerable gains in reducing under-five and neonatal mortality at a national level, with the largest reductions happening before the Asian financial crisis (1997–98) and decentralisation (2000). Hasty implementation of decentralisation reforms may have contributed to a slowdown in mortality rate reduction thereafter. Widening inequities between the most developed provinces of Java-Bali and those of other island groupings should be of particular concern for a country embarking on an ambitious plan for universal health coverage by 2019. A focus on addressing the key supply side barriers to accessing health care and on the social determinants of health in remote and disadvantaged regions will be essential for this plan to be realised.

Linkages between Decentralisation and Inequalities in Neonatal Health: Evidence from Indonesia

Abstract This study uses five waves of the Indonesian Demographic Health Surveys to analyse decentralisation and geographical inequality in health services delivery. Accounting for unobserved community-level heterogeneity with random effects and correlated random effects models, we link facility-based birth delivery to the period of decentralisation and Indonesia’s major island groups using a pooled sample of 71,815 children. We also generate direct estimates of neonatal mortality from 1990 to 2007. The results show that the implementation of decentralisation has accorded with a marked expansion in both health service and outcome inequalities in Indonesia, at least with respect to neonates. Systemic funding failures for health and decision-space issues resulting from decentralisation are likely to have greater impact in disadvantaged regions where local capacity is weakest. The need to address these fundamental issues to reduce inequalities and improve general health outcomes appears supportable.

Disparities in child mortality trends in two new states of India

BackgroundIndia has the world’s highest total number of under-five deaths of any nation. While progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 has been documented at the state level, little information is available for greater disaggregation of child health markers within states. In 2000, new states were created within the country as a partial response to political pressures. State-level information on child health trends in the new states of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand is scarce. To fill this gap, this article examines under-five and neonatal mortality across various equity markers within these two new states, pre-and post-split.MethodsBoth direct and indirect estimation using pooled data from five available sources were undertaken. Inter-population disparities were evaluated by mortality data stratification of rural–urban location, ethnicity, wealth and districts.ResultsBoth states experienced an overall reduction in under-five and neonatal mortality, however, this has stagnated post-2001 and various disparities persist. In cases where disparities have declined, such as between urban–rural populations and low- and high-income groups, this has been driven by modest declines within the disadvantaged groups (i.e. low-income rural households) and stagnation or worsening of outcomes within the advantaged groups. Indeed, rising trends in mortality are most prevalent in urban middle-income households.ConclusionsThe results suggest that rural health improvements may have come at the expense of urban areas, where poor performance may be attributed to factors such as lack of access to quality private health facilities. In addition, the disparities may in part be associated with geographical access, traditional practices and district-level health resource allocation.

New challenges for verbal autopsy: Considering the ethical and social implications of verbal autopsy methods in routine health information systems.

Verbal autopsy (VA) methods are designed to collect cause-of-death information from populations where many deaths occur outside of health facilities and where death certification is weak or absent. A VA consists of an interview with a relative or carer of a recently deceased individual in order to gather information on the signs and symptoms the decedent presented with prior to death. These details are then used to determine and assign a likely cause-of-death. At a population level this information can be invaluable to help guide prioritisation and direct health policy and services. To date VAs have largely been restricted to research contexts but many countries are now venturing to incorporate VA methods into routine civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Given the sensitive nature of death, however, there are a number of ethical, legal and social issues that should be considered when scaling-up VAs, particularly in the cross-cultural and socio-economically disadvantaged environments in which they are typically applied. Considering each step of the VA process this paper provides a narrative review of the social context of VA methods. Harnessing the experiences of applying and rolling out VAs as part of routine CRVS systems in a number of low and middle income countries, we identify potential issues that countries and implementing institutions need to consider when incorporating VAs into CRVS systems and point to areas that could benefit from further research and deliberation.