Sonya Crowe

How many births in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will not be attended by a skilled birth attendant between 2011 and 2015?

BackgroundThe fifth Millennium Development Goal target for 90% of births in low and middle income countries to have a skilled birth attendant (SBA) by 2015 will not be met. In response to this, policy has focused on increasing SBA access. However, reducing maternal mortality also requires policies to prevent deaths among women giving birth unattended. We aimed to generate estimates of the absolute number of non-SBA births between 2011 and 2015 in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, given optimistic assumptions of future trends in SBA attendance. These estimates could be used by decision makers to inform the extent to which reductions in maternal mortality will depend on policies aimed specifically at those women giving birth unattended.MethodsFor each country within South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa we estimated recent trends in SBA attendance and used these as the basis for three increasingly optimistic projections for future changes in SBA attendance. For each country we obtained estimates for the current SBA attendance in rural and urban settings and forecasts for the number of births and changes in rural/urban population over 2011-2015. Based on these, we calculated estimates for the number of non-SBA births for 2011-2015 under a variety of scenarios.ResultsConservative estimates are that there will be between 130 and 180 million non-SBA births in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa from 2011 to 2015 (90% of these in rural areas). Currently, there are more non-SBA births per year in South Asia than sub-Saharan Africa, but our projections suggest that the regions will have approximately the same number of non-SBA births by 2015. We also present results for each of the six countries currently accounting for more than 50% of global maternal deaths.ConclusionsOver the next five years, many millions of women within South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will give birth without an SBA. Efforts to improve access to skilled attendance should be accompanied by interventions to improve the safety of non-attended deliveries.

Real time monitoring of risk-adjusted paediatric cardiac surgery outcomes using variable life-adjusted display: implementation in three UK centres

Objective To implement routine in-house monitoring of risk-adjusted 30-day mortality following paediatric cardiac surgery. Design Collaborative monitoring software development and implementation in three specialist centres. Patients and methods Analyses incorporated 2 years of data routinely audited by the National Institute of Cardiac Outcomes Research (NICOR). Exclusion criteria were patients over 16 or undergoing non-cardiac or only catheter procedures. We applied the partial risk adjustment in surgery (PRAiS) risk model for death within 30 days following surgery and generated variable life-adjusted display (VLAD) charts for each centre. These were shared with each clinical team and feedback was sought. Results Participating centres were Great Ormond Street Hospital, Evelina Childrens Hospital and The Royal Hospital for Sick Children in Glasgow. Data captured all procedures performed between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2011. This incorporated 2490 30-day episodes of care, 66 of which were associated with a death within 30 days.The VLAD charts generated for each centre displayed trends in outcomes benchmarked to recent national outcomes. All centres ended the 2-year period within four deaths from what would be expected. The VLAD charts were shared in multidisciplinary meetings and clinical teams reported that they were a useful addition to existing quality assurance initiatives. Each centre is continuing to use the prototype software to monitor their in-house surgical outcomes. Conclusions Timely and routine monitoring of risk-adjusted mortality following paediatric cardiac surgery is feasible. Close liaison with hospital data managers as well as clinicians was crucial to the success of the project.

Trends in 30-day mortality rate and case mix for paediatric cardiac surgery in the UK between 2000 and 2010.

Objectives To explore changes over time in the 30-day mortality rate for paediatric cardiac surgery and to understand the role of attendant changes in the case mix. Methods, setting and participants Included were: all mandatory submissions to the National Institute of Cardiovascular Outcomes Research (NICOR) relating to UK cardiac surgery in patients aged <16 years. The χ2 test for trend was used to retrospectively analyse the proportion of surgical episodes ending in 30-day mortality and with various case mix indicators, in 10 consecutive time periods, from 2000 to 2010. Comparisons were made between two 5-year eras of: 30-day mortality, period prevalence and mean age for 30 groups of specific operations. Main outcome measure 30-day mortality for an episode of surgical management. Results Our analysis includes 36 641 surgical episodes with an increase from 2283 episodes in 2000 to 3939 in 2009 (p<0.01). The raw national 30-day mortality rate fell over the period of review from 4.3% (95% CI 3.5% to 5.1%) in 2000 to 2.6% (95% CI 2.2% to 3.0%) in 2009/2010 (p<0.01). The case mix became more complex in terms of the percentage of patients <2.5 kg (p=0.05), with functionally univentricular hearts (p<0.01) and higher risk diagnoses (p<0.01). In the later time era, there was significant improvement in 30-day mortality for arterial switch with ventricular septal defect (VSD) repair, patent ductus arteriosus ligation, Fontan-type operation, tetralogy of Fallot and VSD repair, and the mean age of patients fell for a range of operations performed in infancy. Conclusions The raw 30-day mortality rate for paediatric cardiac surgery fell over a decade despite a rise in the national case mix complexity, and compares well with international benchmarks. Definitive repair is now more likely at a younger age for selected infants with congenital heart defects.

Systems modelling and simulation in health service design, delivery and decision making

The ever increasing pressures to ensure the most efficient and effective use of limited health service resources will, over time, encourage policy makers to turn to system modelling solutions. Such techniques have been available for decades, but despite ample research which demonstrates potential, their application in health services to date is limited. This article surveys the breadth of approaches available to support delivery and design across many areas and levels of healthcare planning. A case study in emergency stroke care is presented as an exemplar of an impactful application of health system modelling. This is followed by a discussion of the key issues surrounding the application of these methods in health, what barriers need to be overcome to ensure more effective implementation, as well as likely developments in the future.

Going home after infant cardiac surgery: a UK qualitative study

Objective To qualitatively assess the discharge processes and postdischarge care in the community for infants discharged after congenital heart interventions in the first year of life. Design Qualitative study using semistructured interviews and Framework Analysis. Setting UK specialist cardiac centres and the services their patients are discharged to. Subjects Twenty-five cardiologists and nurses from tertiary centres, 11 primary and secondary health professionals and 20 parents of children who had either died after discharge or had needed emergency readmission. Results Participants indicated that going home with an infant after cardiac intervention represents a major challenge for parents and professionals. Although there were reported examples of good care, difficulties are exacerbated by inconsistent pathways and potential loss of information between the multiple teams involved. Written documentation from tertiary centres frequently lacks crucial contact information and contains too many specialist terms. Non-tertiary professionals and parents may not hold the information required to respond appropriately when an infant deteriorates, this contributing to the stressful experience of managing these infants at home. Where they exist, the content of formal ‘home monitoring pathways’ varies nationally, and families can find this onerous. Conclusions Service improvements are needed for infants going home after cardiac intervention in the UK, focusing especially on enhancing mechanisms for effective transfer of information outside the tertiary centre and processes to assist with monitoring and triage of vulnerable infants in the community by primary and secondary care professionals. At present there is no routine audit for this stage of the patient journey.

Death and emergency readmission of infants discharged after interventions for Congenital Heart Disease: a national study of 7643 infants to inform service improvement

Background Improvements in hospital‐based care have reduced early mortality in congenital heart disease. Later adverse outcomes may be reducible by focusing on care at or after discharge. We aimed to identify risk factors for such events within 1 year of discharge after intervention in infancy and, separately, to identify subgroups that might benefit from different forms of intervention. Methods and Results Cardiac procedures performed in infants between 2005 and 2010 in England and Wales from the UK National Congenital Heart Disease Audit were linked to intensive care records. Among 7976 infants, 333 (4.2%) died before discharge. Of 7643 infants discharged alive, 246 (3.2%) died outside the hospital or after an unplanned readmission to intensive care (risk factors were age, weight‐for‐age, cardiac procedure, cardiac diagnosis, congenital anomaly, preprocedural clinical deterioration, prematurity, ethnicity, and duration of initial admission; c‐statistic 0.78 [0.75–0.82]). Of the 7643, 514 (6.7%) died outside the hospital or had an unplanned intensive care readmission (same risk factors but with neurodevelopmental condition and acquired cardiac diagnosis and without preprocedural deterioration; c‐statistic 0.78 [0.75–0.80]). Classification and regression tree analysis were used to identify 6 subgroups stratified by the level (3–24%) and nature of risk for death outside the hospital or unplanned intensive care readmission based on neurodevelopmental condition, cardiac diagnosis, congenital anomaly, and duration of initial admission. An additional 115 patients died after planned intensive care admission (typically following elective surgery). Conclusions Adverse outcomes in the year after discharge are of similar magnitude to in‐hospital mortality, warrant service improvements, and are not confined to diagnostic groups currently targeted with enhanced monitoring.

Signs of deterioration in infants discharged home following congenital heart surgery in the first year of life: a qualitative study

Aims To describe the ways in which parents recognise and make decisions about their childs symptoms following discharge home after congenital heart interventions in the first year of life and their experiences of seeking help. Methods This was a qualitative study involving semistructured interviews with parents. Twenty-one parents were recruited to the study. Parents all had a child who had congenital heart surgery in their first year of life between September 2009 and October 2013 at one of three UK cardiac centres; the children had either died or were readmitted as an emergency following initial discharge. Results Some parents were unable to identify any early warning signs. Others described symptoms of deterioration including changes in feeding and appearance, respiratory distress and subtle behavioural changes that may not be routinely highlighted to parents at discharge. Several barriers to accessing prompt medical assistance were identified including parents feeling that their concerns were not taken seriously, long wait times and lack of protocols at A&E. Conclusions Our study highlights behavioural symptoms as being a potentially underemphasised sign of deterioration and identifies a number of barriers to parents accessing support when they are concerned. It is important that parents are encouraged to seek advice at the earliest opportunity and that those health professionals at the front line have access to the information they need in order to respond in an appropriate and timely way. A role for home monitoring was also noted as potentially useful in identifying at risk children who appear clinically well.

Is essential newborn care provided by institutions and after home births? Analysis of prospective data from community trials in rural South Asia

BackgroundProvision of essential newborn care (ENC) can save many newborn lives in poor resource settings but coverage is far from universal and varies by country and place of delivery. Understanding gaps in current coverage and where coverage is good, in different contexts and places of delivery, could make a valuable contribution to the future design of interventions to reduce neonatal mortality. We sought to describe the coverage of essential newborn care practices for births in institutions, at home with a skilled birth attendant, and at home without a skilled birth attendant (SBA) in rural areas of Bangladesh, Nepal, and India.MethodsWe used data from the control arms of four cluster randomised controlled trials in Bangladesh, Eastern India and from Makwanpur and Dhanusha districts in Nepal, covering periods from 2001 to 2011. We used these data to identify essential newborn care practices as defined by the World Health Organization. Each birth was allocated to one of three delivery types: home birth without an SBA, home birth with an SBA, or institutional delivery. For each study, we calculated the observed proportion of births that received each care practice by delivery type with 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for clustering and, where appropriate, stratification.ResultsAfter exclusions, we analysed data for 8939 births from Eastern India, 27 553 births from Bangladesh, 6765 births from Makwanpur and 15 344 births from Dhanusha. Across all study areas, coverage of essential newborn care practices was highest in institutional deliveries, and lowest in home non-SBA deliveries. However, institutional deliveries did not provide universal coverage of the recommended practices, with relatively low coverage (20%-70%) across all study areas for immediate breastfeeding and thermal care. Institutions in Bangladesh had the highest coverage for almost all care practices except thermal care. Across all areas, fewer than 20% of home non-SBA deliveries used a clean delivery kit, the use of plastic gloves was very low and coverage of recommended thermal care was relatively poor. There were large differences between study areas in handwashing, immediate breastfeeding and delayed bathing.ConclusionsThere remains substantial scope for health facilities to improve thermal care for the newborn and to encourage immediate and exclusive breastfeeding. For unattended home deliveries, increased handwashing, use of clean delivery kits and basic thermal care offer great scope for improvement.

The benefits and risks of risk-adjustment in paediatric cardiac surgery

Outcomes following paediatric cardiac surgery have long been the subject of clinical, regulatory, media and public scrutiny. There are several reasons for this. The work is among the most technically challenging, resource intensive and emotionally charged clinical activity undertaken. In the UK, past events, public inquiries and intentions to reduce the number of centres performing this surgery provide a rich source of back-stories and a level of public awareness that make paediatric cardiac surgery ripe for political comment and productive journalism. In this context, collection and open reporting of outcome data at a national level is as fraught with difficulties as it is inescapable. Chief among these is a reasonable expectation from the profession that audit will be ‘fair’ to clinical teams. This translates to a view that, in the reporting of outcomes, account should be taken of the hugely diverse set of diagnoses and comorbid conditions that patients present with, the wide range of surgical procedures performed, differences in case mix between centres and the impact of the relatively small numbers of patients on what can reliably be inferred from data. These characteristics of the specialty make risk-adjustment in outcomes analysis deemed essential, but they also make it very difficult to achieve. Efforts in a number of countries to collect standardised data on case mix and outcomes for paediatric cardiac surgery (including our own national audit in the UK) have led to a shift from the use of consensus-based risk stratification tools (eg, RACHS-11 and ARISTOTLE2) to risk estimates based on empirical data, for example, the STS-EACTS score.3 This has subtly shifted how risk is conceived of. Earlier subjective methods took account of how intrinsically difficult and complex the operations were. Empirical methods do not—they account for how successful clinical teams are at getting patients through …

Incorporating Comorbidity Within Risk Adjustment for UK Pediatric Cardiac Surgery

BACKGROUND When considering early survival rates after pediatric cardiac surgery it is essential to adjust for risk linked to case complexity. An important but previously less well understood component of case mix complexity is comorbidity. METHODS The National Congenital Heart Disease Audit data representing all pediatric cardiac surgery procedures undertaken in the United Kingdom and Ireland between 2009 and 2014 was used to develop and test groupings for comorbidity and additional non-procedure-based risk factors within a risk adjustment model for 30-day mortality. A mixture of expert consensus based opinion and empiric statistical analyses were used to define and test the new comorbidity groups. RESULTS The study dataset consisted of 21,838 pediatric cardiac surgical procedure episodes in 18,834 patients with 539 deaths (raw 30-day mortality rate, 2.5%). In addition to surgical procedure type, primary cardiac diagnosis, univentricular status, age, weight, procedure type (bypass, nonbypass, or hybrid), and era, the new risk factor groups of non-Down congenital anomalies, acquired comorbidities, increased severity of illness indicators (eg, preoperative mechanical ventilation or circulatory support) and additional cardiac risk factors (eg, heart muscle conditions and raised pulmonary arterial pressure) all independently increased the risk of operative mortality. CONCLUSIONS In an era of low mortality rates across a wide range of operations, non-procedure-based risk factors form a vital element of risk adjustment and their presence leads to wide variations in the predicted risk of a given operation.