Sophie Nowicki

Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project I: Antarctica

Sophie Nowicki, Robert A. Bindschadler, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Andy Aschwanden, Ed Bueler, Hyeungu Choi, Jim Fastook, Glen Granzow, Ralf Greve, Gail Gutowski, Ute Herzfeld, Charles Jackson, Jesse Johnson, Constantine Khroulev, Eric Larour, Anders Levermann, William H. Lipscomb, Maria A. Martin, Mathieu Morlighem, Byron R. Parizek, David Pollard, Stephen F. Price, Diandong Ren, Eric Rignot, Fuyuki Saito, Tatsuru Sato, Hakime Seddik, Helene Seroussi, Kunio Takahashi, Ryan Walker, and Wei Li Wang

Evaluation of the Surface Representation of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a General Circulation Model

AbstractSimulated surface conditions of the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5), atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are examined for the contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). A surface parameterization that explicitly models surface processes including snow compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, and surface albedo is found to remedy an erroneous deficit in the annual net surface energy flux and provide an adequate representation of surface mass balance (SMB) in an evaluation using simulations at two spatial resolutions. The simulated 1980–2008 GrIS SMB average is 24.7 ± 4.5 cm yr−1 water-equivalent (w.e.) at ½° model grid spacing, and 18.2 ± 3.3 cm yr−1 w.e. for 2° grid spacing. The spatial variability and seasonal cycle of the ½° simulation compare favorably to recent studies using regional climate models, while results from 2° integrations reproduce the primary features of the SMB field. In comparison to historical glaciological observations, the coarser-reso...

A synthesis of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet

The basal thermal state of an ice sheet (frozen or thawed) is an important control upon its evolution, dynamics and response to external forcings. However, this state can only be observed directly within sparse boreholes or inferred conclusively from the presence of subglacial lakes. Here we synthesize spatially extensive inferences of the basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet to better constrain this state. Existing inferences include outputs from the eight thermomechanical ice-flow models included in the SeaRISE effort. New remote-sensing inferences of the basal thermal state are derived from Holocene radiostratigraphy, modern surface velocity and MODIS imagery. Both thermomechanical modeling and remote inferences generally agree that the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and large portions of the southwestern ice-drainage systems are thawed at the bed, whereas the bed beneath the central ice divides, particularly their west-facing slopes, is frozen. Elsewhere, there is poor agreement regarding the basal thermal state. Both models and remote inferences rarely represent the borehole-observed basal thermal state accurately near NorthGRIP and DYE-3. This synthesis identifies a large portion of the Greenland Ice Sheet (about one third by area) where additional observations would most improve knowledge of its overall basal thermal state.

Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6

Reducing the uncertainty in the past, present and future contribution of ice sheets to sea-level change requires a coordinated effort between the climate and glaciology communities. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. In this paper, we describe the framework for ISMIP6 and its relationship to other activities within CMIP6. The ISMIP6 experimental design relies on CMIP6 climate models and includes, for the first time within CMIP, coupled ice sheet - climate models as well as standalone ice sheet models. To facilitate analysis of the multi-model ensemble and to generate a set of standard climate inputs for standalone ice sheet models, ISMIP6 defines a protocol for all variables related to ice sheets. ISMIP6 will provide a basis for investigating the feedbacks, impacts, and sea-level changes associated with dynamic ice sheets and for quantifying the uncertainty in ice-sheet-sourced global sea-level change.

Analysis of the warmest Arctic winter, 2015–2016

December through February 2015-2016 defines the warmest winter season over the Arctic in the observational record. Positive 2 m temperature anomalies were focused over regions of reduced sea ice cover in the Kara and Barents Seas, and southwestern Alaska. A third region is found over the ice-covered central Arctic Ocean. The period is marked by a strong synoptic pattern which produced melting temperatures in close proximity to the North Pole in late December, and anomalous high pressure near the Taymyr Peninsula. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Atlantic contributed to warming over Eurasian high-latitude land surfaces, and El Nino-related teleconnections explain warming over southwestern Alaska and British Columbia, while warm anomalies over the central Arctic are associated with physical processes including the presence of enhanced atmospheric water vapor and an increased downwelling longwave radiative flux. Preconditioning of sea ice conditions by warm temperatures affected the ensuing spring extent.

Climate research must sharpen its view

Human activity is changing Earths climate. Now that this has been acknowledged and accepted in international negotiations, climate research needs to define its next frontiers.

Efficient flowline simulations of ice-shelf/ocean interactions: Sensitivity studies with a fully coupled model

AbstractThermodynamic flowline and plume models for the ice shelf–ocean system simplify the ice and ocean dynamics sufficiently to allow extensive exploration of parameters affecting ice-sheet stability while including key physical processes. Comparison between geophysically and laboratory-based treatments of ice–ocean interface thermodynamics shows reasonable agreement between calculated melt rates, except where steep basal slopes and relatively high ocean temperatures are present. Results are especially sensitive to the poorly known drag coefficient, highlighting the need for additional field experiments to constrain its value. These experiments also suggest that if the ice–ocean interface near the grounding line is steeper than some threshold, further steepening of the slope may drive higher entrainment that limits buoyancy, slowing the plume and reducing melting; if confirmed, this will provide a stabilizing feedback on ice sheets under some circumstances.

Drainage of Southeast Greenland Firn Aquifer Water through Crevasses to the Bed

A firn aquifer in the Helheim Glacier catchment of Southeast Greenland lies directly upstream of a crevasse field. Previous measurements show that a 3.5-km long segment of the aquifer lost a large volume of water (26,000 – 65,000 m2 in cross section) between spring 2012 and spring 2013, compared to annual meltwater accumulation of 6000 – 15,000 m2. The water is thought to have entered the crevasses, but whether the water reached the bed or refroze within the ice sheet is unknown. We used a thermo-visco-elastic model for crevasse propagation to calculate the depths and volumes of these water-filled crevasses. We compared our model output to data from the Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM), which reveals the near-surface geometry of specific crevasses, and WorldView images, which capture the surface expressions of crevasses across our 1.5-km study area. We found a best fit with a shear modulus between 0.2 and 1.5 GPa within our study area. We show that surface meltwater can drive crevasses to the top surface of the firn aquifer (~20 m depth), whereupon it receives water at rates corresponding to the water flux through the aquifer. Our model shows that crevasses receiving firn-aquifer water hydrofracture through to the bed, ~1000 m below, in 10–40 days. Englacial refreezing of firn-aquifer water raises the average local ice temperature by ~4°C over a ten-year period, which enhances deformational ice motion by ~50 m/yr, compared to the observed surface velocity of ~200 m/yr. The effect of the basal water on the sliding velocity remains unknown. Were the firn aquifer not present to concentrate surface meltwater into crevasses, we find that no surface melt would reach the bed; instead, it would refreeze annually in crevasses at depths <500 m. The crevasse field downstream of the firn aquifer likely allows a large fraction of the aquifer water in our study area to reach the bed. Thus, future studies should consider the aquifer and crevasses as part of a common system. This system may uniquely affect ice-sheet dynamics by routing a large volume of water to the bed outside of the typical runoff period.

A Characterization of Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Melt and Runoff in Contemporary Reanalyses and a Regional Climate Model

For the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), large-scale melt area has increased in recent years and is detectable via remote sensing, but its relation to runoff is not known. Historical, modeled melt area and runoff from Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-Replay), the Interim Re-Analysis of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-I), the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the Modele Atmospherique Regional (MAR), and the Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) are examined. These sources compare favorably with satellite-derived estimates of surface melt area for the period 2000-2012. Spatially, the models markedly disagree on the number of melt days in the interior of the southern part of the ice sheet, and on the extent of persistent melt areas in the northeastern GrIS. Temporally, the models agree on the mean seasonality of daily surface melt and on the timing of large-scale melt events in 2012. In contrast, the models disagree on the amount, seasonality, spatial distribution, and temporal variability of runoff. As compared to global reanalyses, time series from MAR indicate a lower correlation between runoff and melt area (r2 = 0.805). Runoff in MAR is much larger in the second half of the melt season for all drainage basins, while the ASR indicates larger runoff in the first half of the year. This difference in seasonality for the MAR and to an extent for the ASR provide a hysteresis in the relation between runoff and melt area, which is not found in the other models. The comparison points to a need for reliable observations of surface runoff.

Antarctic Firn Compaction Rates from Repeat-Track Airborne Radar Data: I. Methods

Abstract While measurements of ice-sheet surface elevation change are increasingly used to assess mass change, the processes that control the elevation fluctuations not related to ice-flow dynamics (e.g. firn compaction and accumulation) remain difficult to measure. Here we use radar data from the Thwaites Glacier (West Antarctica) catchment to measure the rate of thickness change between horizons of constant age over different time intervals: 2009–10, 2010–11 and 2009–11. The average compaction rate to ~25 m depth is 0.33 m a−1, with largest compaction rates near the surface. Our measurements indicate that the accumulation rate controls much of the spatio-temporal variations in the compaction rate while the role of temperature is unclear due to a lack of measurements. Based on a semi-empirical, steady-state densification model, we find that surveying older firn horizons minimizes the potential bias resulting from the variable depth of the constant age horizon. Our results suggest that the spatio-temporal variations in the firn compaction rate are an important consideration when converting surface elevation change to ice mass change. Compaction rates varied by up to 0.12 m a−1 over distances <6 km and were on average >20% larger during the 2010–11 interval than during 2009–10.