Sören Holmberg

Self-Reported Turnout and Voter Validation

Based on unique time series data from 11 election studies (1956-88), about 49 out of 50 Swedes tell the truth when asked whether they voted. Over 99% of the voters say that they voted, but only 74% of the nonvoters say they did not vote. Similar to the results from voter validation studies in the United States, nonvoters in Sweden with characteristics predisposing them to vote are less likely to say they did not vote. Compared to false nonvoters (voted but said they did not), false voters (did not vote but said they did) are more likely to identify with a political party and to have expressed an intention to vote but are also less likely to have actually voted in the prior election.

The Intention-Behavior Relationship Among U.S. and Swedish Voters

The intention-behavior relationship is analyzed with data from 10 U.S. and seven Swedish national election surveys. As expected from Fishbeins theory of reasoned action, the level of consistency between intention and behavior is very high in both nations. Among those whose intention is not compatible with their self-identity and their prior behavior, however, the intention-behavior relationship weakens considerably

Dying of corruption

In many poor countries, over 80% of the population have experienced corrupt practices in the health sector. In rich countries, corruption takes other forms such as overbilling. The causal link between low levels of the quality of government (QoG) and population health can be either direct or indirect. Using cross-sectional data from more than 120 countries, our findings are that more of a QoG variable is positively associated with higher levels of life expectancy, lower levels of mortality rates for children and mothers, higher levels of healthy life expectancies and higher levels of subjective health feelings. In contrast to the strong relationships between the QoG variables and the health indicators, the relationship between the health-spending measures and population health are rather weak most of the time and occasionally non-existent. Moreover, for private health spending as well as for private share of total health spending, the relation to good health is close to zero or slightly negative. The policy recommendation coming out of our study to improve health levels around the world, in rich countries as well as in poor countries, is to improve the QoG and to finance health care with public, not private, money.

Democracy and Bureaucracy: How their Quality Matters for Popular Satisfaction

This study focuses on how citizens’ satisfaction with democracy is affected by system factors related to the input side of the democratic system, i.e. the electoral dimension, as well as to factors related to the output side, i.e. the quality of government. The study investigates the extent to which different election system characteristics and degrees of policy representation (in terms of ideological congruence between voters and representatives) and the presence of effective, professional and impartial governmental institutions are related to citizens’ satisfaction with the way democracy works. The study uses data from CSES on individual voters and party system characteristics together with data on governmental institutions from the QoG Institute. Overall, the results indicate that factors such as government effectiveness are of greater importance for citizens’ satisfaction with the way democracy functions, compared to factors like ideological congruence on the input side. Impartial and effective bureaucracies matter more than representational devices.

The Hawthorne Effect in Election Studies: The Impact of Survey Participation on Voting

Movements of the heavenly bodies are not affected in any discernible way by the fact that there are people on earth recording the apparent movement. Similarly it is almost inconceivable that the planets would alter their orbits because of Keplers discovery and publication of the laws of planetary motion. The social and behavioural sciences are different in that the objects under investigation may behave differently as a result of the research process. This is particularly true when the method involves naturalistic observation, surveys or experiments. When people behave differently because of being research subjects, this is called a Hawthorne effect.

Democratic Discontent in Old and New Democracies: Assessing the Importance of Democratic Input and Governmental Output

Although the phenomenon of dissatisfied democrats has been frequently discussed in the literature, it has not often been empirically investigated. This article sets out to analyse the discrepancy between the strong support for democratic principles and the widespread discontent with the way democracy works. Drawing on earlier research on the sources of political support, using data from a wide range of democracies, the relevance of two contrasting explanatory perspectives are investigated. The first perspective argues that the sources of democratic discontent are found on the input-side of the political system in terms of representation. The contrasting view argues that the output-side of the political system is most important, where the quality of government plays the pivotal role. The results of the empirical analysis suggest that, in general, both types of factor are important, but also that these processes to a large extent are conditioned by the level of institutional consolidation.

Are political parties necessary

Abstract Based on recent survey data from 20 countries, this article examines the ‘contagion’ thesis: that lack of support among the electorate at one level of the political system may spread to other levels. The levels examined are political parties and the party system. The results demonstrate that the degree to which people are attached to a party is related to how they view the need for parties in their country. In countries with widely different democratic systems, people who identify strongly with a party tend to be much more supportive of the idea that parties are necessary to the functioning of the political system than people without strong party attachments. Hence, party identification, a concept originating with the ‘Michigan Four’, is not only a very useful tool in analyzing voting behavior. It can also be applied to studying support for party-based democratic political systems.

Political Perception Among Voters in Sweden and the U.S.: Analyses of Issues With Explicit Alternatives

T HIS ARTICLE focuses on political perception on issues on which the parties and candidates took specific positions. We report evidence pertaining to perceptual consensus, subjective agreement, and issue voting. While most prior research on political perception has been limited to U.S. presidential elections, we extend this by using two vital issues from Sweden, nuclear power and wage-earner funds, as well as two issues from the U.S., abortion and taxes.

A Mass-Elite Comparison of Wishful Thinking

Objective. The purpose of this article was to test the generality of wishful thinking by comparing mass and elite beliefs concerning the future of nuclear power in Sweden. Methods. Data from 11 (1986–1996) surveys of the public and a 1988 survey of the Swedish Parliament that included questions concerning preference and expectation regarding nuclear power were examined. Results. A tendency toward wishful thinking occurred consistently across years among the masses, but was considerably stronger among the political elite (members of parliament). The anti–nuclear segment of the public showed a weakened tendency to expect a preferred outcome. Conclusion. Ambiguity of the future outcome, involvement, and knowledge are discussed as key factors in determining the level of wishful thinking in a given context.

Good Societies Need Good Leaders on a Leash

Power corrupts. Absolute power corrupts absolutely (Werlin, 2007, 359). If this famous statement by Lord Acton of how the world works is correct, the power of elites obviously needs to be restrained to avoid corruption and bad rule (Werlin, 2007, 359). The power-corruption malaise is supposedly true for all kinds of power, but, as stated in the introduction to this volume, especially so for political power. History abounds with examples of poorly restrained, out-of-control leaders – not only highhanded dictators and kings claiming the grace of God but, unfortunately, sometimes also those who have come to power through democratically held elections. Today, we have substantial empirical support for claiming that the consequences of badly restrained political elites for human well-being have been, and still are, dire. No names are necessary, but it is a sad truth that bad megalomaniac leaders and elites are more highlighted and remembered in history books than the more anonymous good leaders. Thus, there are plenty of evidence-based historical proofs that power is best exercised if it can be effectively restrained through systems of control and accountability (Fukuyama, 2011, 321–434). That unrestrained power corrupts is a corroborated social science “law,” not all the time and under all circumstances, but often enough to enjoy a law-like status.