Søren Jacobsen

Derivation and validation of the systemic lupus international collaborating clinics classification criteria for systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVE The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) group revised and validated the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) classification criteria in order to improve clinical relevance, meet stringent methodology requirements, and incorporate new knowledge regarding the immunology of SLE. METHODS The classification criteria were derived from a set of 702 expert-rated patient scenarios. Recursive partitioning was used to derive an initial rule that was simplified and refined based on SLICC physician consensus. The SLICC group validated the classification criteria in a new validation sample of 690 new expert-rated patient scenarios. RESULTS Seventeen criteria were identified. In the derivation set, the SLICC classification criteria resulted in fewer misclassifications compared with the current ACR classification criteria (49 versus 70; P = 0.0082) and had greater sensitivity (94% versus 86%; P < 0.0001) and equal specificity (92% versus 93%; P = 0.39). In the validation set, the SLICC classification criteria resulted in fewer misclassifications compared with the current ACR classification criteria (62 versus 74; P = 0.24) and had greater sensitivity (97% versus 83%; P < 0.0001) but lower specificity (84% versus 96%; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION The new SLICC classification criteria performed well in a large set of patient scenarios rated by experts. According to the SLICC rule for the classification of SLE, the patient must satisfy at least 4 criteria, including at least one clinical criterion and one immunologic criterion OR the patient must have biopsy-proven lupus nephritis in the presence of antinuclear antibodies or anti-double-stranded DNA antibodies.

Morbidity and mortality in the antiphospholipid syndrome during a 10-year period: a multicentre prospective study of 1000 patients

Objectives To assess the prevalence of the main causes of morbi-mortality in the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) during a 10-year-follow-up period and to compare the frequency of early manifestations with those that appeared later. Methods In 1999, we started an observational study of 1000 APS patients from 13 European countries. All had medical histories documented when entered into the study and were followed prospectively during the ensuing 10 years. Results 53.1% of the patients had primary APS, 36.2% had APS associated with systemic lupus erythematosus and 10.7% APS associated with other diseases. Thrombotic events appeared in 166 (16.6%) patients during the first 5-year period and in 115 (14.4%) during the second 5-year period. The most common events were strokes, transient ischaemic attacks, deep vein thromboses and pulmonary embolism. 127 (15.5%) women became pregnant (188 pregnancies) and 72.9% of pregnancies succeeded in having one or more live births. The most common obstetric complication was early pregnancy loss (16.5% of the pregnancies). Intrauterine growth restriction (26.3% of the total live births) and prematurity (48.2%) were the most frequent fetal morbidities. 93 (9.3%) patients died and the most frequent causes of death were severe thrombosis (36.5%) and infections (26.9%). Nine (0.9%) cases of catastrophic APS occurred and 5 (55.6%) of them died. The survival probability at 10 years was 90.7%. Conclusions Patients with APS still develop significant morbidity and mortality despite current treatment. It is imperative to increase the efforts in determining optimal prognostic markers and therapeutic measures to prevent these complications.

MRI bone oedema is the strongest predictor of subsequent radiographic progression in early rheumatoid arthritis. Results from a 2-year randomised controlled trial (CIMESTRA)

Objective: To identify predictors of radiographic progression in a 2-year randomised, double-blind, clinical study (CIMESTRA) of patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods: Patients with early RA (n = 130) were treated with methotrexate, intra-articular betamethasone and ciclosporin/placebo-ciclosporin. Baseline magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the wrist (wrist-only group, n = 130) or MRI of wrist and metacarpophalangeal (MCP) joints (wrist+MCP group, n = 89) (OMERACT RAMRIS), x-ray examination of hands, wrists and forefeet (Sharp/van der Heijde Score (TSS)), Disease Activity Score (DAS28), anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies (anti-CCP), HLA-DRB1-shared epitope (SE) and smoking status were assessed. Multiple regression analysis was performed with delta-TSS (0–2 years) as dependent variable and baseline DAS28, TSS, MRI bone oedema score, MRI synovitis score, MRI erosion score, anti-CCP, smoking, SE, age and gender as explanatory variables. Results: Baseline values: median DAS28 5.6 (range 2.4–8.0); anti-CCP positive 61%; radiographic erosions 56%. At 2 years: DAS28 2.0 (0.5–5.7), in DAS remission: 56%, radiographic progression 26% (wrist+MCP group, similar for wrist-only group). MRI bone oedema score was the only independent predictor of delta-TSS (wrist+MCP group: coefficient = 0.75 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.94), p<0.001; wrist-only group: coefficient = 0.59 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.77), p<0.001). Bone oedema score explained 41% of the variation in the progression of TSS (wrist+MCP group), 25% in wrist-only group (Pearson’s r = 0.64 and r = 0.50, respectively). Results were confirmed by sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: In a randomised controlled trial aiming at remission in patients with early RA, baseline RAMRIS MRI bone oedema score of MCP and wrist joints (and of wrist only) was the strongest independent predictor of radiographic progression in hands, wrists and forefeet after 2 years. MRI synovitis score, MRI erosion score, DAS28, anti-CCP, SE, smoking, age and gender were not independent risk factors. Trial registration number: NCT00209859.

Cancer risk in systemic lupus: An updated international multi-centre cohort study

OBJECTIVE To update estimates of cancer risk in SLE relative to the general population. METHODS A multisite international SLE cohort was linked with regional tumor registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancers. RESULTS Across 30 centres, 16,409 patients were observed for 121,283 (average 7.4) person-years. In total, 644 cancers occurred. Some cancers, notably hematologic malignancies, were substantially increased (SIR 3.02, 95% confidence interval, CI, 2.48, 3.63), particularly non-Hodgkins lymphoma, NHL (SIR 4.39, 95% CI 3.46, 5.49) and leukemia. In addition, increased risks of cancer of the vulva (SIR 3.78, 95% CI 1.52, 7.78), lung (SIR 1.30, 95% CI 1.04, 1.60), thyroid (SIR 1.76, 95% CI 1.13, 2.61) and possibly liver (SIR 1.87, 95% CI 0.97, 3.27) were suggested. However, a decreased risk was estimated for breast (SIR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61-0.88), endometrial (SIR 0.44, 95% CI 0.23-0.77), and possibly ovarian cancers (0.64, 95% CI 0.34-1.10). The variability of comparative rates across different cancers meant that only a small increased risk was estimated across all cancers (SIR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05, 1.23). CONCLUSION These data estimate only a small increased risk in SLE (versus the general population) for cancer over-all. However, there is clearly an increased risk of NHL, and cancers of the vulva, lung, thyroid, and possibly liver. It remains unclear to what extent the association with NHL is mediated by innate versus exogenous factors. Similarly, the etiology of the decreased breast, endometrial, and possibly ovarian cancer risk is uncertain, though investigations are ongoing.

A multicentre study of 513 Danish patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. I. Disease manifestations and analyses of clinical subsets

A Danish multicentre study was undertaken of the manifestations, infections, thrombotic events, survival and predictive factors of survival in 513 Danish patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) according to the 1982 classification criteria of the American College of Rheumatology. The mean duration of follow-up was 8.2 years from diagnosis and 12.8 years from first symptom. This paper describes the most common clinical and laboratory manifestations and their relationship to sex and age at the time of onset and diagnosis. Cluster analysis revealed three clinically defined clusters at the time of disease onset. Cluster 1 (57% of patients) consisted of relatively elderly patients without nephropathy or malar rash, but with a high prevalence of discoid lesions. Cluster 2 (18%) consisted of patients with nephropathy, a third of whom also developed serositis and lymphopenia. The patients of the third cluster (25%) all had malar rash and half were photosensitive. Follow-up showed that the patients of cluster 2 developed azotaemia, large proteinuria, arterial hypertension and myositis significantly more often than did the rest of the patients, but the mortality was not increased. The risk of developing renal end-stage disease was highest in men with early-onset disease.

A multicentre study of 513 Danish patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. II. Disease mortality and clinical factors of prognostic value.

In this Danish multicentre study, predictive clinical factors of mortality and survival were calculated for 513 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), 122 of whom died within a mean observation period of 8.2 years equalling a mortality rate of 2.9% per year. Survival rates were 97%, 91%, 76% and 64% after 1, 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively. The direct causes of death included SLE (n=35_, infections (n=25), malignancy (n=9), cardiovascular disease (n=32) and other causes (n=21). Uni-and multivariate analyses of survival and mortality were performed for all deaths and for SLE-related deaths. Azotaemia (one-fifth of the patients) was a strong predictor of increased overall and SLE-related mortality, but nephropathy per se (one-half of the patients) and large proteinuria (one-sixth of the patients) were unrelated to survival. Haemolytic anaemia had a significant negative influence on survival related to mortality caused by infections. Diffuse central nervous system disease and myocarditis were related to increased SLE-related mortality, whereas photosensitivity predicted a decreased mortality. Non-fatal infections and thrombotic events predicted a decreased overall survival. Since 1980 the mortality caused by SLE manifestations has decreased significantly.

The frequency and outcome of lupus nephritis: results from an international inception cohort study

OBJECTIVE To determine nephritis outcomes in a prospective multi-ethnic/racial SLE inception cohort. METHODS Patients in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort (≤15 months of SLE diagnosis) were assessed annually for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), proteinuria and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Health-related quality of life was measured by the Short Form (36 questions) health survey questionnaire (SF-36) subscales, mental and physical component summary scores. RESULTS There were 1827 patients, 89% females, mean (s.d.) age 35.1 (13.3) years. The mean (s.d.) SLE duration at enrolment was 0.5 (0.3) years and follow-up 4.6 (3.4) years. LN occurred in 700 (38.3%) patients: 566/700 (80.9%) at enrolment and 134/700 (19.1%) during follow-up. Patients with nephritis were younger, more frequently men and of African, Asian and Hispanic race/ethnicity. The estimated overall 10-year incidence of ESRD was 4.3% (95% CI: 2.8%, 5.8%), and with nephritis was 10.1% (95% CI: 6.6%, 13.6%). Patients with nephritis had a higher risk of death (HR = 2.98, 95% CI: 1.48, 5.99; P = 0.002) and those with eGFR <30 ml/min at diagnosis had lower SF-36 physical component summary scores (P < 0.01) and lower Physical function, Physical role and Bodily pain scores. Over time, patients with abnormal eGFR and proteinuria had lower SF-36 mental component summary (P ≤ 0.02) scores compared to patients with normal values. CONCLUSION LN occurred in 38.3% of SLE patients, frequently as the initial presentation, in a large multi-ethnic inception cohort. Despite current standard of care, nephritis was associated with ESRD and death, and renal insufficiency was linked to lower health-related quality of life. Further advances are required for the optimal treatment of LN.

Long-term effects of fluoxetine on glycemic control in obese patients with non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus or glucose intolerance: Influence on muscle glycogen synthase and insulin receptor kinase activity

Fluoxetine (F) is a specific serotonin-reuptake inhibitor that has been shown to promote weight loss and improve glycemic control in obese diabetic patients. To study its long-term metabolic effect, 40 obese patients with non-insulin -dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) were included in a 12-month, randomized, placebo controlled study. Patients were assigned to receive either 60 mg F or placebo (P) daily in conjunction with a 5.0-MJ/d diet (> 50% carbohydrate). Both groups showed a significant weight loss, with a nadir after 6 months without group differences (mean +/- SD: F, 10.1 +/- 10.0 kg; P, 9.4 +/- 11.5 kg). Fifteen patients from the F group and 14 from the P group completed the 12-month study without weight loss differences. Glycemic regulation improved along with the weight loss, but with a larger decline in plasma C-peptide and fasting glucose levels on the F group (P < .05). Total skeletal muscle glycogen synthase (GS) activity increased by 31% in the F group (P < .01) and by 17% in the P group (nonsignificant) after 6 months of treatment, but was still less than the activity in normal-weight controls (aged 28.0 +/- 6.3 years; body mass index, 23.5 +/- 2.2). After adjustment for fasting glucose, insulin, weight loss, and diabetic state, a positive effect of F remained on the total GS activity, which accounted for 27% of the variation (P < .05). The waist to hip ratio was reduced in P subjects as compared with F subjects (P < .05). Fat-free mass (FFM) tended to be more reduced in the F group as compared with P subjects (4.9 v 1.9 kg), although the difference did not reach statistical significance. In conclusion, F seems to improve insulin sensitivity beyond the effect mediated through weight loss by a possible effect on GS activity in skeletal muscle tissue.

Validity of rheumatoid arthritis diagnoses in the Danish National Patient Registry

Discharge diagnoses following hospital admissions in Denmark are recorded in the Danish National Patient Registry (NPR). Such routine hospitalization records may serve as useful research tools in epidemiological studies. The aim of the study was to provide measures of the validity and completeness of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) diagnoses recorded in the NPR. We identified medical records for 217 patients recorded as having RA in the NPR between 1977 and 2001. Using two definitions of RA (clinically confirmed RA and fulfilment of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 1987 diagnostic criteria for RA), a rheumatologist assessed the proportion of RA diagnoses recorded in the NPR that could be confirmed by scrutiny of the original medical records. The completeness of RA diagnoses in the NPR was estimated by a two-sample capture–recapture method. Overall, 59 of the 217 RA diagnoses in the NPR were confirmed by information in the medical records. However, major differences were seen according to characteristics of the underlying hospital registrations. Generally, RA diagnoses were most often confirmed for patients registered as inpatients and for patients with more than one hospital registration with RA. Specifically, only 42 of patients with one RA registration from a rheumatology department were confirmed as having RA. In contrast, 91 of patients treated at a rheumatology department and having three or more hospital registrations with RA were confirmed as having RA. The completeness of the NPR with respect to RA satisfying the ACR 1987 classification criteria was estimated to 26. Our conclusion is that with careful attention to the limitations in the data, discharge diagnoses for patients with records of RA in the Danish NPR can be used for epidemiological research purposes; however, our findings prompt general carefulness when using non-audited registries for research in RA.

Lymphoma risk in systemic lupus: effects of disease activity versus treatment

Objective To examine disease activity versus treatment as lymphoma risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Methods We performed case–cohort analyses within a multisite SLE cohort. Cancers were ascertained by regional registry linkages. Adjusted HRs for lymphoma were generated in regression models, for time-dependent exposures to immunomodulators (cyclophosphamide, azathioprine, methotrexate, mycophenolate, antimalarial drugs, glucocorticoids) demographics, calendar year, Sjogrens syndrome, SLE duration and disease activity. We used adjusted mean SLE Disease Activity Index scores (SLEDAI-2K) over time, and drugs were treated both categorically (ever/never) and as estimated cumulative doses. Results We studied 75 patients with lymphoma (72 non-Hodgkin, three Hodgkin) and 4961 cancer-free controls. Most lymphomas were of B-cell origin. As is seen in the general population, lymphoma risk in SLE was higher in male than female patients and increased with age. Lymphomas occurred a mean of 12.4 years (median 10.9) after SLE diagnosis. Unadjusted and adjusted analyses failed to show a clear association of disease activity with lymphoma risk. There was a suggestion of greater exposure to cyclophosphamide and to higher cumulative steroids in lymphoma cases than the cancer-free controls. Conclusions In this large SLE sample, there was a suggestion of higher lymphoma risk with exposure to cyclophosphamide and high cumulative steroids. Disease activity itself was not clearly associated with lymphoma risk. Further work will focus on genetic profiles that might interact with medication exposure to influence lymphoma risk in SLE.