Spyros Blavoukos

The Limits of EMU Conditionality: Fiscal Adjustment in Southern Europe

The EMU fiscal adjustment paths of the four Southern Europe members (Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal – SE-4) vary along two dimensions: (a) cross-temporal pre- and post-EMU accession and (b) cross-country. We account for the cross-temporal variation by distinguishing between the ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ EMU conditionality of the pre- and post-accession stage. External constraints in the form of the Maastricht eligibility criteria constituted a significant common ‘push’ factor in the fiscal stabilization process of EMU candidate countries throughout the 1990s. However, their power does not necessarily lead to fiscal sustainability as demonstrated by the post-accession budgetary outlook of the SE-4. We account for the cross-country variation by introducing additional ‘pull’ factors related to the reform content, context and capability, such as unemployment, the level of social concertation, and government effectiveness. Only in cases where such factors were at work did governments engage in structural reforms to consolidate public finances instead of the less controversial path of macroeconomic policy reform.

‘Enlargement Waves’ and Interest Group Participation in the EU Policy-Making System: Establishing a Framework of Analysis

How does enlargement affect the EU system of interest group intermediation? We introduce an analytical framework to conceptualise the impact of enlargement. ‘Enlargement waves’ do not only result in a ‘top-down’ process of Europeanisation of national interest intermediation systems, but also have a ‘bottom-up’ effect. This comprises uploading national organisational features and a broader scope of activities onto the EU system of interest representation. The enlargement impact can be seen on the structural properties (organisational features and resources) and the agenda content (scope of associational agenda, policy direction, inter-group balance) of EU-wide interest associations (‘Eurogroups’). The magnitude and scope of impact are conditioned by two groups of parameters linked with the source and target of the impact. The first group refers to the particular features of each ‘enlargement wave’ (e.g. which and how many countries are involved, national system of interest intermediation) and the second to Eurogroup attributes (e.g. willingness to broaden membership base, organisational and decision-making structures).

Chairs as policy entrepreneurs in multilateral negotiations

Chairs have a significant potential effect on the bargaining structure and conduct of multilateral negotiations, addressing collective action problems that arise in decentralised bargaining. We examine the role of the Chair as a policy entrepreneur in multilateral negotiations, identifying the parameters that increase the Chairs entrepreneurship potential and condition the outcome of the Chairs entrepreneurial activities. We cluster the identified parameters in three groups of organisational attributes, comprising the Chairs mandate , available resources and (formal) constraints , in particular decision-making rules. We use this typology to analyse four important case studies within the UN setting.

Europeanisation, Independent Bodies and the Empowerment of Technocracy: The Case of the Greek Auditing Oversight Body

The establishment of independent oversight bodies constitutes an important institutional reform in the European Union context. Based on technocratic expertise, they aim to curtail the states policymaking and supervisory role. During the last decade, such bodies have been established in Greece, illustrating the ideational and institutional impact of the Europeanisation process. By examining the Greek independent oversight board for accounting and audit practices, we posit that its highly politicised mode of governance has undermined the purpose of its instigation and operation. Although such externally induced institutional reforms entail some ideational and institutional change, their full transformative potential has yet to be realised in Greece.

The EU’s Performance in the United Nations Security Council

Abstract Performance in the United Nations (UN) is a key element of the EU’s ‘effective multilateralism’ strategy, especially in the UN Security Council (UNSC) that constitutes one of the two most significant political organs of the organization. In this article, we assess the EU’s performance in the UNSC by looking at two particular aspects of the EU-UNSC interaction: first, the broader political and financial contribution of EU member states in the UNSC functioning and second, the engagement of EU member states in the different stages of the UNSC reform process. On the first aspect, the analysis suggests a positive EU performance, with some inevitable variation across the cases examined, reflecting different political constellation dynamics in the intra-EU deliberations. On the second aspect, there is a clear lack of a coherent, articulated EU position beyond the rhetorical adherence to the necessity of institutional reform, highlighting the minimal EU relevance for its priority stakeholders to meet their political aspirations.

Capturing the EU’s International Performance: An Analytical Framework

Shortly after the eruption of the crisis in the region previously known as Yugoslavia, in the early 1990s, the then Foreign Minister of Luxembourg, Jacques Poos, made a bold statement vis-a-vis the European engagement in the handling of the crisis that ‘this is the hour of Europe’.1 The statement signalled the great optimism of the European leaders in the dawn of the post-bipolar era and prior to the Maastricht disappointments about the prospects of the EU engagement in international affairs. As usual, reality bites and these expectations were very soon trimmed down to lay the timid institutional foundations of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) in the Treaty on the European Union (TEU).

The European Union's visibility and coherence at the United Nations General Assembly

The Lisbon Treaty brought about significant changes regarding the EUs external representation system with new institutional structures set forward to enhance the role of the EU as a unified global actor. In this article, we focus on the UN General Assembly examining whether the coherence and visibility of the EU has increased in the post-Lisbon era. We operationalize and measure both concepts on the basis of oral interventions made by EU and EU member-states’ representatives in the Plenary and in the six Committees over a period of six UNGA sessions. Our analysis is based on verbatim records, official EU/UN documentation and 41 semi-structured interviews with officials in New York and Brussels. We find a smooth and by and large successful transition from the Council Presidency-based system to the EU Delegation-based system of representation that enhances the EU visibility in the UNGA. We also posit that after a period of adjustment and overcoming of intra-EU institutional hurdles, the EU coherence has increased overall. Both our findings testify to the gradual but unmistaken positive effect of the Lisbon changes on the EU foreign policy system at least as far as the UN General Assembly is concerned.

Parameters of the Chairmanship's Effectiveness: The Case of the UN Security Council

The article discusses the parameters conditioning the chairs effectiveness in international multilateral negotiations. Building on existing accounts of Presidential functions, an analytical typology of these parameters is provided, elaborating on the direction and magnitude of their impact. Conditioning parameters are clustered into three categories: the broader international environment in which the chair operates and the issues with which (s)he is called to deal; organization-specific features of an institutional and political nature; and the chairs personal skills and country-of-origin attributes. The potential for effect of these parameters is illustrated by reference to the chairmanship of the UN Security Council (SC). The origins, institutional features and main tasks of the Council are discussed, as well as the role of its chair as an agenda manager and broker. It is argued that the SC Presidents role well exceeds the formal tasks that are stipulated in the Rules of Procedure. Although mainly procedural in nature, these tasks may have important political implications, stressing the informal component of Presidential intervention. The conditioning parameters identified have a catalytic impact upon and account for the great variance in SC chair performance and the effectiveness of the chairs intervention.

Identifying parameters of foreign policy change: An eclectic approach

This paper examines foreign policy change, identifying structural parameters of domestic and international origins that bring about major foreign policy shifts. Domestic structural parameters comprise the politico-institutional setting and advocacy groups in support of alternative foreign policy options. International structural parameters refer on the one hand to systemic changes that may bring about foreign policy realignment and, on the other hand, to the country’s role in the international system and its interactions with other countries that may activate foreign policy changes. We posit that this eclectic approach is necessary to account for major, multi-dimensional and complex, foreign policy decisions. We use this analytical framework to examine the Israeli re-orientation that enabled the signing of the Oslo Peace Agreement in the early 1990s.

In quest of a single European Union voice in the United Nations General Assembly: The politics of Resolution 65/276

In May 2011, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) passed Resolution 65/276 that enhances the European Union (EU) institutional mode of representation in the UNGA and other multilateral fora operating under its auspices. This followed an earlier, failed attempt that caused much embarrassment and political turmoil in the EU. The article examines the politics of this resolution, tracing its background logic, its origins and the political interactions in the UN that eventually led to its almost consensual embracement. It accounts for the failure in the first stage of the negotiations and how the EU responded to it, adjusting its bargaining strategy accordingly. This case study contributes to the better understanding of the links between intra-EU coherence and EU effectiveness as an international actor. We posit that there is one additional dimension of EU coherence not fully captured in the relevant literature. We distinguish between genuine coherence and generated coherence. The former entails homogeneity, or at least a significant degree of a priori convergence among EU member-states. The latter refers to EU positions that have emerged after hard and protracted intra-EU negotiations. The two types differ in the degree of flexibility bestowed on the EU in international negotiations.