Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi

Trends in population mental health before and after the 2008 recession: a repeat cross-sectional analysis of the 1991–2010 Health Surveys of England

Objective To assess short-term differences in population mental health before and after the 2008 recession and explore how and why these changes differ by gender, age and socio-economic position. Design Repeat cross-sectional analysis of survey data. Setting England. Participants Representative samples of the working age (25–64 years) general population participating in the Health Survey for England between 1991 and 2010 inclusive. Main outcome measures Prevalence of poor mental health (caseness) as measured by the general health questionnaire-12 (GHQ). Results Age–sex standardised prevalence of GHQ caseness increased from 13.7% (95% CI 12.9% to 14.5%) in 2008 to 16.4% (95% CI 14.9% to 17.9%) in 2009 and 15.5% (95% CI 14.4% to 16.7%) in 2010. Women had a consistently greater prevalence since 1991 until the current recession. However, compared to 2008, men experienced an increase in age-adjusted caseness of 5.1% (95% CI 2.6% to 7.6%, p<0.001) in 2009 and 3% (95% CI 1.2% to 4.9%, p=0.001) in 2010, while no statistically significant changes were seen in women. Adjustment for differences in employment status and education level did not account for the observed increase in men nor did they explain the differential gender patterning. Over the last decade, socio-economic inequalities showed a tendency to increase but no clear evidence for an increase in inequalities associated with the recession was found. Similarly, no evidence was found for a differential effect between age groups. Conclusions Population mental health in men has deteriorated within 2 years of the onset of the current recession. These changes, and their patterning by gender, could not be accounted for by differences in employment status. Further work is needed to monitor recessionary impacts on health inequalities in response to ongoing labour market and social policy changes.

A glossary of theories for understanding policymaking

Public health practitioners and researchers often seek to influence public policies in order to improve population health and/or reduce health inequalities. However, these efforts frequently appear to be uninformed by the many empirically-based theories about policymaking that have been developed within political science. This glossary provides a brief overview of some of the most popular of these theories, describing how each: frames the policymaking process; portrays the relationships and influence of specific policy actors; and depicts the potential for policy change (or inertia). Examples of their application to public health are provided to help improve understanding of the material presented. Throughout the article, the implications of the different theories for public health researchers and advocates seeking to inform policy decisions are emphasised. The glossary aims to provide an accessible overview to key theories about policy and decision-making, with a view to supporting public health efforts to achieve healthier public policies.

Health inequalities: the need to move beyond bad behaviours

Health inequalities have been observed internationally across a number of dimensions (including, eg, socioeconomic position, ethnicity and gender) and have persisted over time.1 The lack of progress in addressing them has disappointed many within public health, particularly given an apparent prioritisation of health inequalities in UK policy.2 Building on recent research highlighting the limitations of addressing health inequalities by trying to change health behaviours of individuals,3 we argue that attempts to tackle health inequalities are impeded by the current framing that dominates much public health policy and research. We suggest some alternative ways forward. Policy analysts have drawn attention to a recurrent policy emphasis on health behaviours in the UK, despite acknowledgment among decision makers that wider social and economic factors are important.4 This approach has been reinforced by researchers focusing on addressing health inequalities by modifying health behaviours via individual-level interventions, which do not fully take into account the impact of the social and economic environments in which people live over time.5 This preoccupation is illustrated by a recent Kings Fund study that reported increasing inequality in what the authors call the ‘clustering of unhealthy behaviours over time’ in England.6 Even when governments commit to addressing social determinants of health, specific actions and interventions often revert to trying to modify individuals’ behaviours. Hilary Graham describes this process as follows: A recurrent slippage occurs as the policy statements move from overarching principles to strategic objectives, with a broad concept of determinants giving way to a narrower focus on individual risk factors.7 While there is clearly a role for addressing health behaviours as part of efforts to reduce health inequalities, this ‘lifestyle drift’ neglects …

How do systematic reviews incorporate risk of bias assessments into the synthesis of evidence? A methodological study

Background Systematic reviews (SRs) are expected to critically appraise included studies and privilege those at lowest risk of bias (RoB) in the synthesis. This study examines if and how critical appraisals inform the synthesis and interpretation of evidence in SRs. Methods All SRs published in March–May 2012 in 14 high-ranked medical journals and a sample from the Cochrane library were systematically assessed by two reviewers to determine if and how: critical appraisal was conducted; RoB was summarised at study, domain and review levels; and RoB appraisals informed the synthesis process. Results Of the 59 SRs studied, all except six (90%) conducted a critical appraisal of the included studies, with most using or adapting existing tools. Almost half of the SRs reported critical appraisal in a manner that did not allow readers to determine which studies included in a review were most robust. RoB assessments were not incorporated into synthesis in one-third (20) of the SRs, with their consideration more likely when reviews focused on randomised controlled trials. Common methods for incorporating critical appraisals into the synthesis process were sensitivity analysis, narrative discussion and exclusion of studies at high RoB. Nearly half of the reviews which investigated multiple outcomes and carried out study-level RoB summaries did not consider the potential for RoB to vary across outcomes. Conclusions The conclusions of the SRs, published in major journals, are frequently uninformed by the critical appraisal process, even when conducted. This may be particularly problematic for SRs of public health topics that often draw on diverse study designs.

Life course socio-economic position and quality of life in adulthood: a systematic review of life course models

BackgroundA relationship between current socio-economic position and subjective quality of life has been demonstrated, using wellbeing, life and needs satisfaction approaches. Less is known regarding the influence of different life course socio-economic trajectories on later quality of life. Several conceptual models have been proposed to help explain potential life course effects on health, including accumulation, latent, pathway and social mobility models. This systematic review aimed to assess whether evidence supported an overall relationship between life course socio-economic position and quality of life during adulthood and if so, whether there was support for one or more life course models.MethodsA review protocol was developed detailing explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria, search terms, data extraction items and quality appraisal procedures. Literature searches were performed in 12 electronic databases during January 2012 and the references and citations of included articles were checked for additional relevant articles. Narrative synthesis was used to analyze extracted data and studies were categorized based on the life course model analyzed.ResultsTwelve studies met the eligibility criteria and used data from 10 datasets and five countries. Study quality varied and heterogeneity between studies was high. Seven studies assessed social mobility models, five assessed the latent model, two assessed the pathway model and three tested the accumulation model. Evidence indicated an overall relationship, but mixed results were found for each life course model. Some evidence was found to support the latent model among women, but not men. Social mobility models were supported in some studies, but overall evidence suggested little to no effect. Few studies addressed accumulation and pathway effects and study heterogeneity limited synthesis.ConclusionsTo improve potential for synthesis in this area, future research should aim to increase study comparability. Recommendations include testing all life course models within individual studies and the use of multiple measures of socio-economic position and quality of life. Comparable cross-national data would be beneficial to enable investigation of between-country differences.

Austerity and old-age mortality in England: a longitudinal cross-local area analysis, 2007-2013.

Objective There has been significant concern that austerity measures have negatively impacted health in the UK. We examined whether budgetary reductions in Pension Credit and social care have been associated with recent rises in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over. Design Cross-local authority longitudinal study. Setting Three hundred and twenty-four lower tier local authorities in England. Main outcome measure Annual percentage changes in mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years or over. Results Between 2007 and 2013, each 1% decline in Pension Credit spending (support for low income pensioners) per beneficiary was associated with an increase in 0.68% in old-age mortality (95% CI: 0.41 to 0.95). Each reduction in the number of beneficiaries per 1000 pensioners was associated with an increase in 0.20% (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.24). Each 1% decline in social care spending was associated with a significant rise in old-age mortality (0.08%, 95% CI: 0.0006–0.12) but not after adjusting for Pension Credit spending. Similar patterns were seen in both men and women. Weaker associations observed for those aged 75 to 84 years, and none among those 65 to 74 years. Categories of service expenditure not expected to affect old-age mortality, such as transportation, showed no association. Conclusions Rising mortality rates among pensioners aged 85 years and over were linked to reductions in spending on income support for poor pensioners and social care. Findings suggest austerity measures in England have affected vulnerable old-age adults.

Changing Policy Framing as a Deliberate Strategy for Public Health Advocacy: A Qualitative Policy Case Study of Minimum Unit Pricing of Alcohol

Context Scotland is the first country in the world to pass legislation introducing a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol in an attempt to reduce consumption and associated harms by increasing the price of the cheapest alcohol. We investigated the competing ways in which policy stakeholders presented the debate. We then established whether a change in framing helped explain the policys emergence. Methods We conducted a detailed policy case study through analysis of evidence submitted to the Scottish parliament, and in-depth, one-to-one interviews (n = 36) with politicians, civil servants, advocates, researchers, and industry representatives. Findings Public- and voluntary-sector stakeholders tended to support MUP, while industry representatives were more divided. Two markedly different ways of presenting alcohol as a policy problem were evident. Critics of MUP (all of whom were related to industry) emphasized social disorder issues, particularly among young people, and hence argued for targeted approaches. In contrast, advocates for MUP (with the exception of those in industry) focused on alcohol as a health issue arising from overconsumption at a population level, thus suggesting that population-based interventions were necessary. Industry stakeholders favoring MUP adopted a hybrid framing, maintaining several aspects of the critical framing. Our interview data showed that public health advocates worked hard to redefine the policy issue by deliberately presenting a consistent alternative framing. Conclusions Framing alcohol policy as a broad, multisectoral, public health issue that requires a whole-population approach has been crucial to enabling policymakers to seriously consider MUP, and public health advocates intentionally presented alcohol policy in this way. This reframing helped prioritize public health considerations in the policy debate and represents a deliberate strategy for consideration by those advocating for policy change around the world and in other public health areas.

How evidence based is English public health policy

Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi and colleagues’ analysis of the government’s white paper Healthy Lives, Healthy People finds many of the interventions proposed lack evidence of effectiveness and some have even been shown not to work

Natural Experiments: An Overview of Methods, Approaches, and Contributions to Public Health Intervention Research

Population health interventions are essential to reduce health inequalities and tackle other public health priorities, but they are not always amenable to experimental manipulation. Natural experiment (NE) approaches are attracting growing interest as a way of providing evidence in such circumstances. One key challenge in evaluating NEs is selective exposure to the intervention. Studies should be based on a clear theoretical understanding of the processes that determine exposure. Even if the observed effects are large and rapidly follow implementation, confidence in attributing these effects to the intervention can be improved by carefully considering alternative explanations. Causal inference can be strengthened by including additional design features alongside the principal method of effect estimation. NE studies often rely on existing (including routinely collected) data. Investment in such data sources and the infrastructure for linking exposure and outcome data is essential if the potential for such studies to inform decision making is to be realized.

Understanding the development of minimum unit pricing of alcohol in Scotland: a qualitative study of the policy process.

Background Minimum unit pricing of alcohol is a novel public health policy with the potential to improve population health and reduce health inequalities. Theories of the policy process may help to understand the development of policy innovation and in turn identify lessons for future public health research and practice. This study aims to explain minimum unit pricing’s development by taking a ‘multiple-lenses’ approach to understanding the policy process. In particular, we apply three perspectives of the policy process (Kingdon’s multiple streams, Punctuated-Equilibrium Theory, Multi-Level Governance) to understand how and why minimum unit pricing has developed in Scotland and describe implications for efforts to develop evidence-informed policymaking. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with policy actors (politicians, civil servants, academics, advocates, industry representatives) involved in the development of MUP (n = 36). Interviewees were asked about the policy process and the role of evidence in policy development. Data from two other sources (a review of policy documents and an analysis of evidence submission documents to the Scottish Parliament) were used for triangulation. Findings The three perspectives provide complementary understandings of the policy process. Evidence has played an important role in presenting the policy issue of alcohol as a problem requiring action. Scotland-specific data and a change in the policy ‘image’ to a population-based problem contributed to making alcohol-related harms a priority for action. The limited powers of Scottish Government help explain the type of price intervention pursued while distinct aspects of the Scottish political climate favoured the pursuit of price-based interventions. Conclusions Evidence has played a crucial but complex role in the development of an innovative policy. Utilising different political science theories helps explain different aspects of the policy process, with Multi-Level Governance particularly useful for highlighting important lessons for the future of public health policy.